From a purely technical view point you are correct but it's not a 1:1 ratio for hourly.

Phil Laak broke the Guinness world record by playing 115 hours hour straight.

Do you know what the world record is for online poker? 49 hours.

If we use these metrics an hour of online poker is around 2.34 hours of live poker.

This is exactly why live poker is more profitable.

Those are terrible metrics to use but.

You play about 22-30 hands an hour live where as online you get about 70-90 hands per hour 1 tabling

So, if you play 8h/day online you think you can play 18h a day live?

It's an interesting thought to try to come up w/ a decent comparison.

Obviously it depends on the individual's ability to win online vs live.

Online you have the advantage of volume as you can play anywhere from probably 12x to 48x the number of hands/hr than you can live.

But in live play you can play 10x the stakes w/ a negligible decrease in game quality from ACR 2nl or 5nl.

I mean the fact that you have people who can play a nitty short stack strat that worked in 2005 and still have a win rate of 4bb/100 at low stakes I think is very telling.

So I don't have a good sense of how much the increase in win rate can offset negative variance.

But my guess is by pure $ value in most scenarios live is going to be more profitable.

If you assume 4bb/100 WR online and 64k hands per month (40 hours a week at 400 hands per hour)


35bb/100 live (~10bb/hour) 4.8k hands per month (160*30)


Online player is making $32/h at 200nl, live $50/h at 2/5. In terms of skill I'm guessing the live winrate is easier but I have no experience there

I'm very surprised at how low the live variance

live has more variance than can be calculated because stack sizes are not constant and doesn't have the constant ratholing that is prevalent online that ensures stacks are usually around 100bb

you can build up over the course of a session to 5x the max buyin and then get felted when you jam with the nuts on the turn and the guy calls and hits his gutshot

unless the casino has a matching stacks rule, there's pretty much no chance to play another pot that size again, and even if there are matching stacks, quite a few recreationals suddenly get tired or hungry after a massive double up and leave




quite often when i look back at my results, whether or not it was a winning or losing session will come down to a single hand, you can almost never say that about online poker

Let's count it with simple way, let's take live winrate 30 which is achievable for a crusher, assume you play 8h a day and 35 hand is dealt per hour, with auto shufflers it's more like 35-40 can be dealt i believe or maybe let's take the worse variant 30 ok

So if you play 8h a day that's 240 hand, assume you play 25 days in a month, that's 6000 hand

6000/100=100
30BBwinrate*3$=60$ per 100 hand (assume it's 1/3 game)
30BBwinrate*5$=150$ per 100 hand (assume it's 2/5$ or 5/5$ game)
60*100=6000$ income per month 1/3
150*100=15000$ income per month 5/5

now lets compare it to online and lets assume you play 50k hands a month at 200NL with 8BB winrate
50000/100=500
8BBwinrate*2$=16$ per 100 hand
16$*500=8000$ income per month
gl putting 50k volume and achieving 8BB winrate in toughest pools while live player sips cocktail enjoys life and wins with ease

The skill set required to win at 2/5 live is easily an order of magnitude lower than what is required to win at 200 online.

I think most online regs don't play 8h/day, except for the leaderboard grinders who are a huge exception.

I think 4bb/100 is an about average winrate for 200nl and 10bb/hris an above average winrate for 2/5. But I could be wrong about the live winrates.

Yep, and the bigger open sizes. 9-handed and playing against passive opponents lowers variance a lot though so maybe it evens out in terms of standard deviation

Well when you're playing a 100 hand session instead of 1500 a single hand will matter a lot more

They are both equally unsustainable, actually I don't think it is completely equal. My comparison was just a shortcut heuristic that is probably flawed as well.

Hourly is only one part of the equation. This is why I think talking in terms of hourly is very flawed thinking, you don't just show up clock in and clock out.

I don't have the exact answer because there's so many factors involved in the equation, for example, the more you play online the more spots you have to study which will cause you play less at the tables.

I'm surprised no one has developed some type of model to account for all these factors but here we are.

Well we can't compare 4bb/100 to 10bb/hr because that's like 30 hands or maybe even less. Live winrates are closer to 35-40bb/100.

Yeah we already have anecdotal evidence of this, we have players that transitioned from being a solid nl50 player to a 5-10+ live crusher.

I think you would need some type of computer model since it is way too complicated to just go oh hey this is my hourly, let's compare hourlies and then be done.

It would be a cool subject for an academic to look at.

I don't need anecdotal evidence since I play both formats currently and have played live for over 20yrs so am pretty well versed in the landscape.


But yeah I would agree any 50nl reg would crush most 5/10 live no problem.

Don’t forget to factor in all the time away from the tables discussing winrates

Play and annotate every single hand you get dealt, chips won, lost or 0. Get a sample and calculate the winrate and std deviation. I would definitely do it this way if I played live.

lol

Solver solutions can be hard to wrap your head around sometimes.

JTs is an almost 5bb EV river call but AKs is a 0EV river call if OOP bets river.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 41.1% | Hands: 333]
SB ($32.64) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]
BB ($30) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 32.4% | Hands: 103]
HERO ($36.80) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.5% | River Agg: 40.3% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71200]
HJ ($54.99) [VPIP: 15.8% | PFR: 10.5% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 19]
CO ($74.75) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 33.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 3]

Dealt to Hero: K A

HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $1.75, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.1 effective]
Flop ($3.85): 2 5 K
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.92 (Rem. Stack: $71.08), HERO Calls $1.92 (Rem. Stack: $33.13)

Turn ($7.69): 2 5 K 4
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($7.69): 2 5 K 4 J
HERO Checks, CO Checks



Also 88/77/66 no spade are high frequency turn barrels for IP.

Cool Bluff spot that didn't work. It might be worse than theory though since a lot of air will bet turn on that overcard which makes BXB stronger than it should be.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($19.70) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
SB ($25.91) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 26.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 16]
HERO ($37.46) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.5% | River Agg: 40.4% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.4% | Hands: 71299]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 71]
HJ ($34.27) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 17.6% | Hands: 117]
CO ($33.71) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 45% | Flop Agg: 47.5% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 45.8% | 3Bet: 6.5% | 4Bet: 22.2% | Hands: 546]

Dealt to Hero: T Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.62, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [24.69 effective]
Flop ($1.34): 6 3 3
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.44 (Rem. Stack: $32.65), HERO Calls $0.44 (Rem. Stack: $36.40)

Turn ($2.22): 6 3 3 K
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($2.22): 6 3 3 K K
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.11 (Rem. Stack: $31.54), HERO Raises To $5.55 (Rem. Stack: $30.85), CO Raises To $32.65 (allin), HERO Folds

lol are you range floating flop?

^^

I think I would fold some really bad hands like Q8s no BDFD but I am definitely calling lighter than a solver.

good way to never get action imo

Massive XR frequency in theory, we should be xring over 30% of the time vs small flop stabs.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30) [VPIP: 17.8% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 18.2% | Hands: 75]
HERO ($35.30) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | 3Bet: 10.1% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.8% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71386]
BB ($35.12) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 4]
UTG ($17.31) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 15]
HJ ($32.11) [VPIP: 35.9% | PFR: 30.8% | AGG: 35% | Hands: 39]
CO ($30.10) [VPIP: 31% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 36.4% | Flop Agg: 60% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 30]

Dealt to Hero: Q K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.57, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $2.71, BB Folds, CO Calls $2.14

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.83 effective]
Flop ($5.67): 9 3 9
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.77 (Rem. Stack: $25.62), HERO Raises To $6.37 (Rem. Stack: $26.22), CO Folds



Never bluff this spot as a default, his air will bet river so when he checks it is with the intention of calling. I should of sized up even more than B150 but make sure you OB river with value.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($47.34) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 40.5% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71386]
SB ($42.65) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 4]
BB ($30.35) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30.8% | Hands: 22]
UTG ($32.69) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
HJ ($40.62) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
CO ($30) [VPIP: 29.7% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 38.9% | Hands: 65]

Dealt to Hero: 6 K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [27.14 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 5 8 7
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.10): 5 8 7 T
BB Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $29.30), HERO Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $46.29)

River ($2.20): 5 8 7 T 4
BB Checks, HERO Bets $3.10 (Rem. Stack: $43.19), BB Calls $3.10 (Rem. Stack: $26.20)



It's interesting that 99 never calls in theory, only jams or folds.

Jamming would be amazing imo, that would be a world class play.

Turn is a range probe spot for OOP which is pretty cool. Never OB though.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($39.94) [VPIP: 17.3% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 202]
SB ($31.24) [VPIP: 32.3% | PFR: 25.8% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 32]
BB ($66.17) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
UTG ($30.97) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 8% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 84]
HERO ($36.44) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | 3Bet: 10.1% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.8% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71414]
CO ($33.33) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]

Dealt to Hero: K Q

UTG Raises To $0.50, HERO Raises To $1.51, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.01

Hero SPR on Flop: [8.74 effective]
Flop ($3.37): T 3 5
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($3.37): T 3 5 4
UTG Bets $4.10 (Rem. Stack: $25.36), HERO Folds