April results:

181k hands.

0.27 EV BB/100
1.77 BB/100 (Real)
$Won: 1,612
Rake: 2,312
Total Profits: $3,924

Seems like most of the recreational regs and bad regs have now gone busto or dropped down limits and games are coming back to before... Hoping May will have a better EV BB/100 result. I did play pretty poorly this month where 80% of the time I was playing my B-/C game... end of month I was playing more my A-/B++ game and pulled back around 10-11 buyins to close the month on a higher note.

May so far:

12k hands.

9.2 EV BB/100
14.8 BB/100 (Real)
$Won: 904.97

I made some adjustments this month.... Focused more on playing my A/B game and I think this has reflected in my results. (Also running good so can't complain there...) I think what I said before was right seemed like April had a lot of wannabes and I am GONNA GO PRO!!! regs onboard and seems like the majority of them realized they couldn't beat the game and dropped out... The aggression of the games now seem back to normal.

I also decided not to play the hours where it is reg heavy so my win-rate should be higher this month although I think my overall vol will be lower...

I didn't do as much vol also because Honkai Star Rail got released and I burned alot of time playing this lol...

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...nkai+star+rail

GLGL nice work, keep updating this blog is inspiring me.

Update May:

NL50

34k hands.

4.64 EV BB/100
6.36 BB/100 (Real)
$Won: 1082.76

NL100

3,258 hands
$Won: -$130

NL200

1,416 hands
$Won: $763

May Totals:
$Won: $1,715.81
Rake: $515
$Total: $2,230.81

Been going sideways mainly at NL50 or just sideways and up a little... Cards being dead, running into usual setup situations to lose stacks e.g. AK vs KK or KK into AA - Been playing my B Game also at NL50 for a week or so so this led to more mistakes, bluff catching and over calling when I should have folded.

NL200 I continue to crush it because I just play the most fishy times and hunt the recreationals still around 8-10 bb winner at NL200 where the NL100 pool tends to be more reg heavy right now.

Will continue to try and get to 80-100k hands for NL50 this month but it be a bit harder since I am trying to just play in the game best times without fighting the regs too much.

Last month (MAY Results)

64k hands

Profits: $3,406.52
Rake: $796
Total: $4202

June so far

Been a bit of a lackluster month for me. I took a break for half the month and focused on self improvements. I went gym and down -8kg in weight now... My lifestyle is better and I am happy with the improvements. I also decided to cut back a table now on rush so I will be playing 2 tables from now instead of 3. This is also to keep improving my poker skills and post flop game.

30k hands (first month running below ev lol...)

July I will get back into the grind.... Made more rake this month because was hitting the leaderboard but I think I am not happy really with leaderboard chasing so will go back to 2 tables and aim for a moderate leaderboard score but a higher BB/100...

BB/100: 0.92
EV BB/100: 2.85

Profits: $149.49
Rake: $517
Total: $666.49

In gl

The cards hated me in June. I'm below EV with allins around 6-7 buyins. was playing my C+/B- game.... Some spots and big pots I could have avoided but I think I will retire June since it sucks and will grind on for July...

41k hands

-0.16 bb/100
1.94 EV bv/100

Profits: -$34
Rake: $697
Total: $663

Year to date graph so far:

530k hands at NL50

2.73 bb/100
1.63 ev bb/100

Profits: $7,250.81



140k hands at NL100

5.19 bb/100
2.88 ev bb/100

Profits: $7,223



22.5k hands at NL200
9.78 ev bb/100
16.17 bb/100

Profits: $7,259

Crazy to see how high above Ev you can run even on such a huge sample. Wouldn't wanna be the poor guy on the other side of the coin.
Good luck on ur adventure, got any specific goals for the end of 2023?

Yes I am finding the optimal number of tables to play which yield me the highest win rate. So now I switched to 2 tables instead of 3 to see how the month goes.

Currently I track a lot of strategies e.g.

How I play premium hands: JJ+AK
Profit I gain from being PFR
Profit I gain from being Cold Caller
Profit I gain from being 3bettor
Profit I gain from being 4bettor
Profit I gain from being calling 3bets
Profit I gain from being calling 4bets
and more...

I use alot of these heuristic to conclude if changes I make in my game give a a postive+ more benefit and less swingy results or give me negative results. They also help me to track to see if I deviate from expectation or I am playing incorrectly as well.

The things which I have concluded is if you have avg all-in equity > 59% you will get much less swings and hardly much downswings.... I have done a 500k sample and maintained around a 57-59% all-in equity which has led me to my biggest downswings of around 10-14 buyins...

However if your avg all-in equity is around 51-56% You will get larger drawdowns and swings in your game.

My goal at the moment is to have a variance free profits on the table at NL50 and possibly move to NL100 sometimes for the rest of the year and try to increase my win-rate as much as possible. The games are still pretty competitive and there be some periods or weeks where new people come into the population and things stop working.

So rather than playing GTO -> I tend to find an optimal exploitable strategy which works pretty much against 95% of the population in the pool and just deviate sometimes from my standard lines if I am playing against someone I know who will tend overbluff or underbluff in spots and I can exploit them.

I think if end of 2023 goes well I will most likely try and tackle the NL200 pool for a larger sample the main issue though is I will need to study and example larger parts of the post-flop trees to understand how it is played since the aggression goes up more at NL100 then at NL200 also...

All in all I want to keep improving my game and just play solid with the datasets and heuristics I have on everyone. Hopefully I can get a >3bb/100 EV winrate at NL50 for the end of 2023 that be perfect for me.

My July so far (2 tabling only)

7,157 hands

6.7 bb/100
6.01 ev bb/100
Profits: $225.24

July so far

10k hands

This month running good again and yeah I guess graph shows it also.... but also no idea why everyone is playing stupid this month.... everyone is bluff catching alot in spots where its meh in terms of bluffs but I'm not complaining lol...


9.11 bb/100
5.55 ev bb/100

Profits: $496

Some amusing hands...

Against my 14/12 buddy... So the history of me and him he was a leaderboard grinder at NL50 I guess he lost his roll since he dropped down to NL25 for several weeks or months then he moved back to NL50 again.

I have no idea about this guy but he is a complete nitspew tard.... likes to blast off in 3bet pots against me but long story short he keeps getting owned by me and I won't be surprised if he loses his roll again with the way he plays... very spewy... maybe it works against some of the population but considering he has to drop down i doubt he is winning or beating the game after winning leaderboard and rakeback...

But him and Fritzie have lost quite a bit to me since yeah I tend to play maximum exploitive against them since I found weaknesses in their strategies....

#Hand 1

So I cold 4bet here.... Not sure why he thinks I have cold 4bet bluffs but yeah I was surprised to see what he jammed with over this.... not even sure if its GTO...

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 632.76 BB
SB: 106.18 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 90.9 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero raises to 21.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 311.5 BB, Hero calls 78.5 BB and is all-in

Flop: (203 BB, 2 players) 5 3 4

Turn: (203 BB, 2 players) J

River: (203 BB, 2 players) 9



#Hand 2

So I am UTG and I meet my 14/12 nit friend again... I guess he tries to capitalise on his image but I just call his 3bet here with KK cos yeah well... He is a total nit and I probably only get action from AA.... So called with the purpose to call down his barrels and yes again he doesn't disappoint and blasts off..

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 104.36 BB
SB: 101.5 BB
BB: 815.98 BB
Hero (UTG): 141.24 BB
MP: 156.28 BB
CO: 84.26 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6.7 BB

Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 3 9 3
BB bets 10.18 BB, Hero calls 10.18 BB

Turn: (38.86 BB, 2 players) 9
BB bets 29.94 BB, Hero calls 29.94 BB

River: (98.74 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 766.86 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 92.12 BB and is all-in




This hand was versus a random....

basically CO vs BTN sometimes I will trap ppl here since ranges are wide and the btn 3bet co range is very wide.... I kinda crush the board so no point in doing anything when I flop top set and my hand is very disguised..... on the river I probably have few bluffs here since really my hand is totally under repped but would you call with AK here to the river jam??? Even tho my line looks completely weird since you never expect me to have AA here I'm only repping A4/A3/44/33/66 here and even so not sure if AK should be calling here unless he thinks I have bluffs where I actually will have 0 bluffs here like 90% of the time.

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 138.78 BB
SB: 191.74 BB
BB: 104.68 BB
UTG: 120.3 BB
MP: 103.46 BB
Hero (CO): 107.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.3 BB, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.7 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) A 4 3
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.78 BB, Hero calls 5.78 BB

Turn: (29.06 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (29.06 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN bets 14.54 BB, Hero raises to 93.7 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 79.16 BB



I think this hand is interesting again my reason for calling and I tanked a very long time on river was would AK or KQ really bet the size on turn and then jam river? I mean its a leveling game and he needs to know me.... since he was an unknown I thought through the hand and thought typically the population oif they had AK would bet a size to get worst to call and then either block bet to induce on the river or bet like half 3/4 pots.... So yeah given all that info I just felt it was just Bullshit what he had and my bluff catcher here was good enough to call.... doubt he ever turn QQ into a bluff here and AA i doubt take this line so either he has a full houses or AK/KQ or nothing and from my logic with his bet sizes I remove AK/KQ from his range.

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 178.1 BB
BB: 91.48 BB
UTG: 264.06 BB
MP: 226.8 BB
CO: 102.74 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.3 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.7 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 4 3 5
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) K
SB bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

River: (49 BB, 2 players) K
SB bets 154.1 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 76 BB and is all-in

must have been a sick sweat in hand 1 with that flop.
Don't you contradict yourself between hand 1 and hand 2? he 5bet jams light against your cold 4bet and next hand you dont want to 4bet KK because you think the same guy is never 5betting light against your 4bet.

Its the positioning... he is 3betting a steal so general population sometimes will have 4bet bluffs e.g. AJs,AQs,88-JJ,A5s.

In hand 2 its very rare that people are 4bet bluffing BB 3bet when they are UTG.... So I hardly doubt he will 5bet shove any bluffs against me in hand 2 hence why trapping when I am at the top of my range is better. I lose to AA anyways if I call 3bet and call down the same as if I 4bet hand he jams and calls and if he had AA.... The only hand I potentially lose some value is if he AK and would jam AK in these positions versus my 4bet but again he is a total nit 14/12 so I doubt he ever jam AK in that spot versus me. Hence all them factors and villians tendency to overbarrel and bluffing setting traps is much better...

There are actually about 4-5 more hands I will try dig them up where I just called him down he barrel off against me when I called with AA/KK..... So when villian has this weakness you should go max exploitive...

Hand 1 why i didnt trap with AA because I am out of position and its harder to trap when your oop so 4betting is better... however if I 3bet and he 4bet me I would call around 50% against this nit... because yeah I have seen him just blast off with overpairs always in 3bet pots...

It kinda became apparent to me that ppl delete hands from their poketracker and I had another poster who made an assumption I did this. However like I said in this post

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...81/index7.html

I have no desire or need to coach others, if I can win at rush and cash why would I dilute my profits by teaching others to do it? Makes totally no sense right?

Anyway I repost the graphs I pulled from ggpoker so you can see they align with the graphs I posted here. I am missing some hands in my pokertracker but my graphs are all winning so maybe I forgot, lazy or I forgot to import on a specific day cos I grinded too hard neither less

March

nl100





nl50





april

nl50







may

nl50





you can clearly see I am running above ev in ggpoker from their ev graph also... and where the ev matches together my pokertracker graph does also the only differences is ggpoker will not record the win if you cash out and lose the pot so there will be some errors in ggpoker there especially if i cash out on 90-95% and they hit their 1-2 outer which in some cases this has happened.

thankyou.

July update:

Both are kinda wrong in terms of $won since it should be $550 (without rakeback) but I go with the pokertracker one since its the lowest for now.

1.5 EV BB/100
3.96 BB/100
Table Profits: $399.93
Rakeback: $225
Total: $624

GG



Pokertracker


In terms of study I tell you what I normally do. Usually I will look at what my current dataset is (20k hands) and compare it against my previous hands e.g. 500k I will compare these strategies to see how much deviation or above below I am from the long term average.

$/hand is dividing by the total number of hands so in this example its 500k for my overall sample and 20k for my current data sample

Strategy name - How much I should make $/hand - What I am making with my current data set - Red means I'm below my expectation and green means I'm above.

SRP (without calling 3bets) $0.038 $0.036
SRP (with 4bets+) $0.049 $0.065
3bets (without calling 4bets) $0.027 $0.023
3bets (call 4bet+) $0.029 $0.023
cold caller $0.006 $0.003
call 3bets $(0.000) $0.006
call 4bets $(0.002) $(0.006)
4bet with bluffs -$0.13 $3.80
4bet with value (99+,AK) $5.34 $7.89
Went all in (big posts 90bb+) $0.003 $0.019
-
So what do I infer here, I have lost more than expected in SRP without calling 3bets but maybe this is due to run outs... including 4bets+ I am way more profitable which conclude the population is overbluffing or overdefending against me in these spots.
Cold caller I am losing more than my expectation but I think in general the games are getting more aggressive
Call 3bets I am winning more but that again is due to I think people are too aggressive and overbluffing too much in 3bet pots
Call 4bets take time to converge so I wont infer anything here
the 4bet stats also reaffirm what I said above people are too aggressive and overdefending or overbluffing hence my profits with bluffs and value are more than expected.
Went all in is most likely the same thing I said.

In general the population has adjusted to become more spewy in 3betting, overbluffing in 3bet pots and overdefending e.g. bluff catching in spots where I usually have value and no bluffs and thats is where my profit is coming from.
-

Last stat is actually number of times i got dealt a premium and how much I make on average e.g. $/hand dealt a premium (JJ+,AK)
Premium hands $2.08 $2.80

So this number also reconfirms everything I said about general population in general I am making about 50% more profits than I should have and that is due to population are bluffing or barreling too much in 3bet scenarios.

Anyway I hope that helps you to understand how I analyze my game.

When I see strong deviation or run bads e.g. say my allins are below expectation or I'm losing in key areas I should be winning e.g. SRP, 3bettor or 4betting I will dive into the numbers and see if its a matter of bad luck e.g. my bluffs get jammed on too frequently or I am bluff catching or defending too much in spots I should be folding... Usually if I deviate from solid play I always use my overall stats as my benchmark to get my game back in shape and this leads me to overall long term consistency in winning in a tough field.

I don't really do too much with solvers and haven't really been using them since Feb now... Now and then if I want to see what a solver solution is in a post I will look it up but in general I base and adjust my play on:
1. how the general population usual plays in spots.
2. If I spot any deviation why? What is the reason e.g. the reg is a losing player, clown, overbluffs, recreational player? And what further information can I conclude to base my decision e.g. timing tells, bet sizing on each street, positions and history with that opponent.

Funny QQ hands

Hand #1

Recreational player, in terms of GTO you should flat most of the time QQ here, other details is small 4bet size + recreational just screams too much strength to me, my best case was a flip. My plan was to call and fold if I don't vastly improve since I feel these positions villian will be underbluffing with bluffs in these spots always...

Anyway I like my turn size and river I dislike thinking about it again... I did put him on AK/AA which I thought would call a shove (usually recreationals will do) however he did end up folding AA lol....

Given that and I virtually am never bluffing here... my bluffs if I had any would be TT, 87s*rarely ever, A5s*Almost never so he loses to everything else.

With that in thought I should have just bet a value he could call and call a shove so probably betting 20-25bb on river would have gained me more value.

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 106.6 BB
Hero (SB): 136.86 BB
BB: 112.08 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 95.5 BB
CO: 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, UTG raises to 21 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

Flop: (43 BB, 2 players) J Q K
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (43 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 21.5 BB, UTG calls 21.5 BB

River: (86 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 68.8 BB, fold



Hand #2

In this hand I have QQ and flop a set on the flop against versus a button 3bettor. I don't usually 4bets unknowns with QQ in this spot cos usually it be a flip at best if we get it in... I prefer to call and get more information with a strong holding.

When he bombs the flop my assumption considering he 3bet to 7 was he has AA/KK and this is why I decided to lead turn and jam river.... I doubt AA/KK with a spade here can find a fold in this spot especially when they beat KQ/AQ. My hand is deceptive and disguised but also I might also have some leads with a semi bluff here like AsJo, Ks,Jo, JJ,88,99 however I think on river I am capped and I doubt I will barrel bluffs so basically my shove is just value in this spot.

Have to lead turn since some nits will check back AA/KK with a spade so you lose a street of value.

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 174.74 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 108.44 BB
MP: 113.24 BB
CO: 238.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.7 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) T 6 Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 11.64 BB, Hero calls 11.64 BB

Turn: (38.78 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 19.4 BB, BTN calls 19.4 BB

River: (77.58 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 70.4 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 70.4 BB

July graph short update:

I have winner's tilt atmo... playing like an absolute monkey in some spots.... I think this is due to making quite a bit of profit already and I need to sort out my head and get back to playing my normal solid game... Hence the small downswing start...

Also due to chasing leaderboard 1 day and not sleeping for 1 day also and playing with lack of sleep over the weekend lol..... OK if I don't fix it today and my downswing continues I will take a break.

I swear there must be something wrong with this guy or he never makes notes or has memory loss
but every now and then my 14/12 leaderboard chaser nit buddy still tries it with me regardless of how many times I stacked his bluffs when he 3bets me:

Im amazed he double barrels with no equity at all and against this specific opponent with my hand I would have snapped his river jam also... Very surprised he didn't unload the whole clip or maybe he remembered on the river I just station all my value against him lol.

The weirdest thing is everytime I see him run barrels on other people in general he has a strong range e.g. AA-QQ but everytime he barrels me he always has weird hands like T9s, 56s and random small pairs lol....

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 186.48 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 117.88 BB
UTG: 156.56 BB
Hero (MP): 104.2 BB
CO: 215.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 2.3 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6.7 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 4 2 K
Hero checks, CO bets 10.74 BB, Hero calls 10.74 BB

Turn: (40.98 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, CO bets 31.56 BB, Hero calls 31.56 BB

River: (104.1 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, CO checks

Now at 4,250,000 FPs out of 5,000,000 FP to reach GGPlatinum.

have 2 months left approx to get 750,000 FPs is do-able I guess but cant slack....

Also my PVI and rake they give me right now is so stupidly low because I'm winning not losing in the NL50 rush pool.

What's your PVI?

started behaving and stopped being a monkey and recovered from my short downswing lol...

I'm getting about 18-19% atmo rakeback versus my rake contributed.