I would just call turn with plan of donking river if i hit, if not you can also throw small bet to get him to fold better draws random Qx ect.

River card is really bad for bluffing Kx is unlikely to fold and even to a fish this looks like good spot to hero call with any pair, so maybe just make small bet to get him to fold 79 or something.

Your line works better when you are IP

1- they bet weaker range oop for 1/2
2-stronger hands will often 3bet you ott or donk river

Most rec can't read range, so good rivers to bluff are ones that degrade their apostle hand strength. In this example A might be good card to bluff because 6x and even Kx now is 3rd and 2nd pair, to any regs it's obv you have no Ax in this line but most recs just look at how nice their hand looks like.

The nittiest river check super deep:

How terrible do you guys think this was?

I did some research on what you said and concluded you're right.

Fish don't seem to overfold river much vs my line and calling turn/donking river seems to be the optimal play instead.
I also agree with the IP part of your comment. MDA seems to support it.

Lol guessing you timed out?

I generally attack weakness and definitely never try to make them fold something good. If I probe 30% on the turn I'll always bluff river but if I go 150% maybe never. XC-XR I assume is even worse.

"there's no way that he calls the river with just Kx" I think the mistake is assuming they'll play well/logically. It's hard to switch off that mode of thinking when most of your hands are vs regs.

It doesn't look like the small double barrels are that much weaker, and fold to turn XR is pretty similar so I wouldn't read much into the sizing as they're probably just clicking buttons. Mr fish isn't overbetting flop here they're betting 3bb which is super common in this spot. I assume turn is just 4bb to them.

Scrolled down a bit and saw the PC specs, 4 24.5 inch monitors is that real? Grind station pics?

I genuinely felt the only thing that calls me is Ax and he mainly has the suited versions of that. I also expected him to mainly bet 2p/sets otr.

It was just a nitty check.

This is what it looks like right now:


I mostly play 12-16 tables, so 4 monitors are quite useful.
The main purpose of the top one is watching movies/tv shows while standing up, as I don't like sitting down much. Otherwise 3 would be enough.

Yikes. Pretty poor thinking here.

Your actual physical setup looks kind of janky aesthetically lol, but those specs are wild man. Really sick setup in terms of that

That turn x is imo horrendous vs a fish. If you really want to check top set there do it with the Ah, but that's still probably a punt vs this villain. You're just costing yourself money trying to get cute with the nuts IP deep vs a fish. I would probably only ever x behind vs regs, and even that would only be with the Ah really

I don't like the river x either but it's better than the turn one

I agree that you probably don't need to spend much time studying since you're clearly crushing in general, but you probably still want to review your play to avoid continuing to make mistakes like that

^That guy was actually a 23/18/7 reg over 9k hands

I stacked him one hand before and he went on tilt apparently, but I didn't know that at the time.
I expected for his 4b calling range preflop to be nitty. Vs a rec I'd both 4b bigger and play postflop more aggressively.

Yeah, that's why I'm posting these hands. I mostly post the ones in which I'm not 100% confident about my play.

I noticed that I didn't make the annual challenge progress update this year, so I'll make it now.

Graph at the start of 2024:


Challenge progress: 72k/100k

You guys ever wondered what fish limping range looks like?


My overall 3bet range:


I get married in August and am very excited for it. The wedding will cost me $20k+, which is a huge portion of my current net worth. That's why I've decided to increase my poker volume for time being and take the game more seriously.

My plan is to finish the challenge this year.

lmao, how quickly tilt can turn us into whales

Congrats on the engagement brother, idk if you mentioned it before. $20k USD wedding in Slovenia will be very beautiful I'm sure. Have anything in mind yet for a venue?

March 2024:


+RB

A pretty mediocre month. 100nl shots didn't go well.
From now on, the goal is to make 2k+ profit every single month, till the end of the year.

Some hands:

H1: Got owned by a nit.


H2: Vs a rec. Perhaps BxB would be better?


H3: fml


It will be a beautiful wedding for sure. The venue will be at the top of Mt Nanos.
There will also be the whole ritual in which I'll have to buy my wife from her family and prove my worth as a husband, which I'm not super into, but it's a culture here, so w/e.

I'm sure there's spots where B-B-B is going to be the highest EV, even against a fish, but B-X-B would be my preferred line if I'm not sure. Especially when we don't turn any additional equity.

Can't just show them your graph?

Congrats on the engagement.

My wife and I did a very bare bones wedding and chose to spend very little with no regrets, but it is certainly a once in a lifetime event and more than worthy of overspending on. Best of luck and looking forward to some pictures!

How much is one Slovenian wife? I might need one

Congrats and gl

I should ask about that option But I doubt they care about the EV much.
I'll probably just pay ~500€ and cut down a few trees and that should do it.

If it were only up to me, I wouldn't spend nearly as much either, but it's usually about making the bride and the families happy. It's basically a one giant party, and you get most of the money back via gifts.

I heard that in some cultures it's the wife's family that pays the husband money for taking her away. If only I was born there ><

Congrats on the engagement ZK.

wrt to this hand I think you played it well OTF/OTT. River is just a B50 though for bluffs since fish are pretty inelastic so it's higher EV.

Here is some BTNvsBB Data.

Also BXB line would be better if turn was not an overcard but MDA show's they overfold OTT.

Thanks for the data DooDoo!

I mainly shoved because he snap called the turn. I felt that he had a ~QxJs type of hand super often and almost never a flush.

You are part of Balkan, you will get a nice portion of that 20k back

Yes?

April 2024:



I didn't play much poker this month, but did study quite a bit. I've completely rebuilt my default postflop gameplan in a way that should be maximally exploiting the population. I do expect for my WR to increase a bit due to this, but we'll see by how much exactly.

I would have jus gone slightly larger otf and jammed turn, why did you opt for checking there?

Well played on KK hand. Fish are gonna fish

Solver would've probably checked the turn, especially with K and I just didn't have an exploitative reason to deviate.

Are you saying that the rec will call a turn shove more than MDF and not bet often enough vs a check? It's possible, I just didn't have a solid reason/MDA data to think so.
It seems completely plausible to me that he'd float the flop with air vs the small bet and then bluff jam the turn. Or thin value shove low pairs to protect vs ~AK.

I honestly am not sure what the optimal line is, but am open to opinions.

What do you think about checking the river with KK? Could that be a thing?

I also take this line

Checking turn is good since we are vs a fish and we know how they play after calling flop (they bet turn 10% more than theory).

River you check hands that block his value and unblock bluffs so you'd check a hand like JJ in this spot or a hand like TT on QT5xx. C-X-F is overfolded so this is a good bluff line as well. Fish X back more value hands than regs when you look at range composition OTR so with a hand like KK jamming will be better than checking river but if we have JJ we X river to let him bluff.

Very well played.

Another thing to note is the fish call2bet/call3bet range is very wide as you can see here so we always cbet range OTF.