Ill betchu a breakfast at Bouchon if u want

or a sushi lunch

or whatever

Ty sir, appreciate the post.

Yeah, prefer to deal with people I know or acquaintances for the most part. Not betting for edge. Placing bets on a website would mostly defeat the point

Booking action rarely difficult as I’ll typically do whatever the other side wants


I’ll do this on the chiefs game with you, if you want! As I’m rooting for the Chiefs and like watching highlights of them play.

It looks like the spread is bills +1.5 , but you can have them +2.

meal of your choice sounds good, maybe even a couple rounds of drinks if I’m feeling adventurous at the time (never drank at a bar)

Tata Steel Chess 2022 Round 7 Recap


Coverage





Praggnanandhaa-Carlsen Round 7 Analysis

I actually have a few sportsbetting questions for you or anyone who likes talking about this stuff. I'm not into betting/don't have any desire to gambool in that way but like to get educated on anything I'm clueless on that interests me.

This seems like a good opportunity.

Firstly, is this is a good source for lines and odds? I'm assuming it doesn't matter much?

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd.../date/01-22-22


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd.../date/01-22-22


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd.../date/01-23-22


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd.../date/01-23-22


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/






For vig-free, can you just use a calculator like this?

https://sportsbettingsites.org/betti...ig-calculator/






Typically what I'll do if it's Bucs -150, Rams +130, for example, is just give the other person Bucs -130 or even straight up if it's a small enough wager.

I'm aware that it's -EV but I'm just betting for fun (even if it's a few hundred lets say) and the life EV is worth more to me.

I'm not sure how wise that is once I start betting bigger amounts with whales who want to gambool or whatever.

What do you think?

Same V from recent hands, different session:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2906

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2918

V up a little at the time.

$4945E~

OTTH

Pre-flop: HS reg $20 EP. Main V cc CO. Hero 3b A K $90 BTN. Both V’s call.

Flop ($276): A 10 2. Checks to hero, who xb.

Turn ($276): A 10 2 9. EP checks. Main V bets $207. Hero calls. EP folds.

River ($690): A 10 2 9 10. V timebanks and then bets $1200.

What are you doing here?

can't possibly fold this

did you see a showdown in either of the 2 other hands?

Yeah, so:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2906
V had 10 9


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=2918
I folded, no showdown



ty, nice to get some feedback!

I was concerned this V potentially spazzing out w 10x ott, trying to get me to click fold w JJ-KK region

also far less likely even this V has air ott given multi-way

probably overthinking it tho

Bookt!

We will do breakfast at Bouchon next time we are both in vegas. Its my fave place to have a really nice relaxing breakfast on the strip.

Sounds like a plan!

This will happen by July at the latest, assuming you’re around for WSOP!

Go Chiefs~

for your purposes it won't matter, professionals use subscription services but for peons like us we can use that

sbr is the most popular https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...?date=20220122

but they recently stopped tracking pinnacle which for whatever reason is often considered the "standard line" so in the vfl p2p thread we use this now https://www.wagertalk.com/odds

yes that vfl calculator will work, you can also make your own in excel which is what i've done and happy to email it to you if you pm me, it's a pretty simple formula

yeah that's close enough to eyeball and among friends whatever

but true vfl there would be -138/+138

so if you bet 100 the chiefs side would get 100 with a win and the other side 138

but obviously among friends it's a moot point of $8 in lost ev for the rams bettor but if you bet chess going forward i assume the vig there is pretty big

if you're doing vig free then theoretically it should be an ev neutral bet

sports betting is tough, i have built predictive models that do quite well in dfs but it's the kind of stuff that gets ridiculed and laughed at by sports bettors - sports betting is a lot more scalable and the parties who are setting and moving the lines are phd'd statisticians

my goal is to one day have models competent enough to to possibly make +ev sports wagers, but it'll be a long and exhaustive journey to get there

the sports betting forum here is pretty dead these days but you can still browse it for gems, there's a bunch of good wells that are great resources, you'd probably best start at the crockpot well (james holzhauer of jeopardy fame)

i have fun with it, but only do it for vig free and as part of a process of learning - i'm not wagering anywhere but that thread here

Pinnacle are the only book in the west that consistently take and don't limit sharp action so their lines are more accurate on account of that. Without sharp bets it's difficult to know how strong a line is. As a result, Pinny closing lines are considered to often be the most accurate representation of the true probabilities for that event.

Thank you for your insight, gentlemen

got it

it makes sense that line shopping is prudent if one were to bet professionally. high volume + high % of roll etc


Right, makes sense.



Yeah, I’m assuming it’s analogous to beating the market in investing.

I figure the issue is more so the opportunity cost of the time + energy + add. resources (like $) invested not making the pursuit worthwhile than actually gaining an edge but it’s much of the same I suppose! Mostly clueless.

My intuition does tell me that existing professional gamblers have an edge diversifying across different spheres as they can take the emotion + ego out of it and have the requisite patience + discipline.

The part about models/algos makes sense. Definitely makes sense to me to let AI do the heavy lifting if one wanted to maximize edge while minimizing opportunity cost.


You got this! I’ll have tons of questions so maybe we can learn together. I usually like to take the thread through what’s on my mind which is why I keep it in here as opposed to pms.

90%+ poker.

But sometimes it’s chess, sometimes it’s football, sometimes it’s womens tennis lol


Got it, makes a lot of sense!

I figure one way to identify sharp action is by seeing what direction the line moves? So if like 80% of the action is on a team (dumb money like me) and the line goes in the other direction (20%) for whatever reason?

Although, my guess is that the guys willing to wager the most are going to bet as soon as the line comes out/right before it closes so maybe not too helpful.

I assume stuff this this (limiting/banning sharp action) contributes to your intense hatred of casinos, mr. sqwid?

you may actually like to read this from like/poogs

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...-like-1761417/

he'll be the first to admit he's not the most sophisticated person at sports betting, but he makes a living picking off stale lines and always assumes that if one place has Lakers +12 while most have Lakers +10 then you can blindly bet the +12 profitably etc etc

so his real work isn't in predicting outcomes but from spending his time scouring for soft lines

regarding seeing lines move, in general if a line is moving a certain way then that's where the sharp money is, and a lot of people blindly follow that and it's called steam chasing - but the real question is has the line already moved enough to the point where it's not even ev in the minds of the sharps who were betting it in the first place

p2p vig free book
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...t-3-a-1779647/ (you'll need to escrow 10x your standard bet size and people usually bet a floor of $100 so 1k that can't be used to pay off debts - this money will be held until you're considered a reg in good standing who won't scam)

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...rrent-1800208/ chat thread, basic questions

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...tting-1740167/ - this died down but was an amazing resource - really credit what i learned here especially the contributions of 2p2 legend sigs (he's the one with the now jibberish username as he wanted to scrub his history when he left) the stuff in that thread really helped me grow

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...rchid=64515018 a bunch of other wells

crockpot well https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...ockpot-363692/


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...l-tomg-533499/ tomg well, he's still active here and incredibly nice and helpful

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...sigley-823475/ sigs well

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...nting-1162807/ gto lessons in how to spend your winnings

If you fold that then what can call?

I'm thinking thread tribunal to rule on what constitutes a dunk.

This rams game is unbelievable.

It was 27-3.

Now 27-27 with less than a minute left in regulation.

Rams ball.

Next week’s game is in LA.

Super Bowl is in LA as well.

I’m a huge rams fan so this makes me happy.

RAMS!!!

$$$

cheers

Chiefs-Bills 14-14 at the start of the 3rd quarter

Ty for sharing your thoughts, sir.

Hard to feel great about putting over 400bb in the middle with one pear in game but do agree we need to be clicking the call button for a variety of reasons, some more sophisticated than others.

Remember that not all of the spots posted are going to be close both in theory as well as in practice. It's rare spots are ever super close in a game like this.

I want to give the readers a chance to put themselves in my shoes and a wide array of hands helps with that.

29-26 Bills. 1:47 remaining. Chiefs Ball.

33-29 Chiefs. 1:02 remaining. Bills Ball.

36-33 Bills. 0:07 remaining. Chiefs Ball.

36-36. Overtime. Chiefs win the toss.

epic game.

I O U a breakfast at Bouchon.