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Old 07-14-2009, 04:38 PM   #1
Performify
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The Well - TomG

A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer" .

The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".




====

Last edited by Performify; 07-15-2009 at 09:52 AM.
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:39 PM   #2
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Re: The Well - TomG

What is it about Lady Gaga's song Poker Face that brings your friend Brian so much joy?
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:42 PM   #3
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Re: The Well - TomG

How did you become such a stunning specimen of male fitness?
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:45 PM   #4
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Re: The Well - TomG

Hi Folks, I've read all the past "The Well" threads and I'm honored to host my own. However, this thread will be a little different than the previous ones. Although my goal is to one day become a full-time professional sports gambler, I admit that I'm not there quite yet. I'm not as experienced at this as other hosts such as B00T, Thremp, and NajdorfDefense. There may be some questions that I simply don't know the answer. In those cases, I encourage others to join in and answer. Hopefully this will generate some good discussion and we can all improve at sports betting.
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:46 PM   #5
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Re: The Well - TomG

oh hell yeah

how is your team totals model coming about?
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:48 PM   #6
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Re: The Well - TomG

What sports are you betting on ?
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:55 PM   #7
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Re: The Well - TomG

Who are u ?
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:02 PM   #8
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Re: The Well - TomG

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Who are u ?
oh SNAP!
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:06 PM   #9
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Re: The Well - TomG

life story w/ special regards toward personal gambling journey please
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:09 PM   #10
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Re: The Well - TomG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
What is it about Lady Gaga's song Poker Face that brings your friend Brian so much joy?
He mostly listens to the current top songs so right now it's Boom Boom Pow, Flo Rida, Lady Gaga, etc.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:10 PM   #11
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Re: The Well - TomG

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Originally Posted by kyleb View Post
How did you become such a stunning specimen of male fitness?
Hard physical exercise helps take my mind off a bad day of gambling. Also, light cardio (especially in a nature setting) is a good way to think about things. Some of my best sports insights have come during a hike or mountain bike ride.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:22 PM   #12
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Re: The Well - TomG

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Originally Posted by Wisdom Cube View Post
oh hell yeah

how is your team totals model coming about?
I tried to create a MLB Team Total Model based on this article:

https://baseballprospectus.com/artic...?articleid=342

It didn't work very well. Baseball sabermetricians are experts at baseball and are good at writing interesting articles for baseball publications. But that doesn't necessarily mean Clay Davenport could become a successful MLB handicapper. That's why you often see academic papers about sports modeling that sound good but are never made into successful gambling models. On the other hand, there's a guy like RickJ who doesn't know that much about sports modeling (he paid a team of programmers to create his model for him) but he is an expert at gambling.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:26 PM   #13
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Re: The Well - TomG

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What sports are you betting on ?
Baseball right now. Occasionally I'll take a horse match-up, a MMA fight, or an event prop bet such as Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Mostly, though, just bases. That's summertime for ya.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:35 PM   #14
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Re: The Well - TomG

TomG,

Do you see value in beaverball?
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:36 PM   #15
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Re: The Well - TomG

What is your biggest sports betting weakness/flaw?
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:40 PM   #16
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Re: The Well - TomG

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life story w/ special regards toward personal gambling journey please
28/M/WA.

I have a B.S. in Math/Statistics. After college I worked as a "Business Analyst" for about 6 years. I quit that job to work at a new place as a database analyst. The new job sucked. So I recently quit that job and have been unemployed for the last few months. I saved a lot of money so I'm not actively looking for a new job. I'm mostly just living as a man of leisure for the time being.

Gambling wise, I've been a 2+2'er for about 5 years. I used to play a lot of poker (LHE, O8 and PLO8) but I rarely play nowadays. I got into sports betting when Mansion gave me a free wager on the first game of the 2007 NFL season (Miami @ Pittsburgh on September 7th). Search the 2+2 archives for the thread. My poker bankroll provided the funding and it's been mostly sports ever since.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:50 PM   #17
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Re: The Well - TomG

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Originally Posted by TomG View Post
I got into sports betting when Mansion gave me a free wager on the first game of the 2007 NFL season (Miami @ Pittsburgh on September 7th). Search the 2+2 archives for the thread. My poker bankroll provided the funding and it's been mostly sports ever since.
Joey Porter!!! That game was awesome.
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Old 07-14-2009, 06:20 PM   #18
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Re: The Well - TomG

TomG - If you were a hotdog and you were starving, would you eat yourself?
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Old 07-14-2009, 07:01 PM   #19
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Re: The Well - TomG

What is your favorite breed of Asians
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Old 07-14-2009, 07:01 PM   #20
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Re: The Well - TomG

I know I would
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:04 PM   #21
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Re: The Well - TomG

I'm sure quitting your job and thinking about doing this full time was a huge decision, so I've got some questions regarding that:

How soon do you expect to be betting sports full time?

What steps are you currently taking to make the transition to full time? (since you said "you aren't there yet")

What kind of results do you expect whenever you decide to do it full time?

Are you confident in your abilities to support yourself?

What's your backup plan, if you have one?

I was a rather casual bettor last year (~500 games total over the NFL/NCAAF, NBA/NCAAB, English football seasons) but after some very solid results, I've decided to take it much more seriously this year. What's something I can do (maybe something you think is crucial for success) to take the next step for better results?

I'm sure I'll have more later. Thanks for doing this.

Last edited by Fusilli Jerry; 07-14-2009 at 09:21 PM.
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:46 PM   #22
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Re: The Well - TomG

How can I become better looking and creative enough to invent genius systems?
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:48 PM   #23
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Re: The Well - TomG

What are your favorite sites for sports betting besides 2+2? any favorite bloggers?

What has been key to your success? such as your background in stats, etc.

Any advice for a novice casual sports bettor?
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:28 PM   #24
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Re: The Well - TomG

Quote:
Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
What is your biggest sports betting weakness/flaw?
One weakness is that I tend to overvalue my most recent performance. I get frustrated. For example, take the Cubs/Pirates game on June 29th. This was during a period of time when the Rangers were running really bad AT2½. I liked the Cubs in the game, but instead of just taking them as a dog straight-up (it was Harden v. Duke), I took them at +2½ -340. I didn't have a reason to pay that much juice. I just did it because all my -2½ bets kept losing so I figured taking a team that I liked +2½ would be a guaranteed winner.

That's one reason why I like betting systems such as the Texas Rangers 2½ System. It adds a level of discipline and makes it easier to handle the ups and downs. I do have a saying that I try to repeat often--"I'm not as bad as my most recent loss and I'm not as good as my most recent win."
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:31 PM   #25
TomG
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Re: The Well - TomG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
TomG,

Do you see value in beaverball?
I like the Seattle Storm at home ATS. They are a good team that plays much better at home (Seattle sports teams tend to have one of the better HFA's in general). I don't follow WNBA too closely, though.
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