True, but a Bayesian prior pulled out of our ass is better than nothing.

1400 hour update from the 1/2 and 1/3 stakes. Most hours come from a game that plays bigger than typical 1/3, closer to 2/5. Biggest downswing to date earlier this year, right at $5k.

Nice work!
Looks like close to $50/hour?

Id say its about $52.61/hr

What a tool

excel is a hellova tool!

LOL. ive never made 50k, my best year was 48k and most years was between 30k and 45k for the last 20-30 years. and of course its my only income, unless u count slot or BJ wins too but i lose as much as i win there. usually more. u certainly dont need 50k or higher to last many years. some states 50k is in the top 20%, some places its in the bottom 20%. some states u can live like a king for 25k a year. some states u live in the ghetto with 75k where u live matters.

After playing pretty much full time for the first time this year (mostly 2/5 and 5-card Omaha, with 1/3 and 5/10 mixed in), I’m also gonna be in the $40-$50k range after 2200 hours (as long as I don’t completely crap out for the rest of 2019) and I am pretty satisfied with my progress. Have lots to improve like playing deeper (I mainly short stack), using PIO/solvers, refining my PLO strat, gradually moving up from 2/5. Definitely not planning on quitting anytime soon either.

It’s definitely painting with a broad brush to say anyone who can’t make X shouldn’t play or won’t last. People define success and satisfaction differently depending on who you talk to.

Also this fails to account for growth over time. Just because someone doesn’t make >$50k their first year doesn’t mean they should quit. It just means they can still improve a lot (if making more is important to them).

What is a realistic hourly for a winning 2/5 player? I have heard $50 hourly is what the winning players can make. How many hours will it take to have a realistic idea of an actual hourly? I started on 7k upswing and now on 10k downswing(with small winning sessions during downswing) but is this normal?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...nances-771192/

$50/hr is very optimistic. While there is a graph above you of someone doing that, he's a rather extreme outlier.

General rule of thumb is that winning players rarely top 10BB/hr, and even that is only the toppest regs who aren't outliers. If you've had a 10K downswing already, you likely don't fall in that category. While downswings will happen, that is a big one, and very early in your sample.

Generally accepted meaningful sample is 1,000 hours, though your SDev is key to the value of your sample size, with smaller SDevs making smaller margins of error over smaller samples and vice versa.

I have some doubts about what would be considered a big rake, and to calculate if the games available for me are beatable due to it rake and table dinamics.

I appreciate the number of times (once a week maybe) that Garick contests, about the standard winrate after a sample >24.000 posts ITT, that:
10bb/h you are crushing, 5bb/h are what good regs that study makes and ABC players/OMC are usually breakeven.

But I’ve found little or no information about the rake to acomplish this WRs and stack depth.

So... I play on Spain.
On my usual poker room we have 10% rake capped:
1/2 cap to 8€ (4bb), 1/3 cap to 10€ (3,33bb), 2/5 cap to 13€ (2,60bb).

As I can see, around here a rake > 3,5bb would be consider too high. And a rake < 3bb would be consider a nice rake.

We rarely have 5/T tables so all the good regs are grinding 2/5.
I usually play 1/3.

1/2 are really soft and 2/5 are a bog challenge for me.

On 1/3 we have a minimum of 50€ buyin and a maximum of 500€. Same for 1/2.
2/5 are 100€-1.000€.

On 1/3 on saturdays are usually something like:
3 guys with 100-150€
3 guys with 200-300€
2 guys with 300-400€
1 guy 500€

Usually made by regs and recs that go by frequently (rare to see unknows).

On your opinion and experience, is this a beatable game?
Would you guys be willing to expend your time grinding a pool like this?

I want personal opinion, like:
HELL YEAH, SEENS SWEET!

Or

HELL NO, I WOULD RATHER BE BETTING ON THE GREEN AT ROULETTE.

Thank you

Depends on the kind of 2/5 game this is, $500 cap or $1500 cap? Depends on your play style as well. 10k downswings aren't really normal at average 2/5 if you're a very good player, but they can happen on rare occasion.

I wish I could follow you like you can follow a thread, best poster on 2p2 and it's not even close

i left the game full time after about a year despite that I was doing very well at it (well for a recent college grad's financial metric) because I was worried doors outside of poker would close if I didn't get some experience while still young enough to take an entryish level job

yet... I still assume most people who played and stopped after <3 years or >12 years indeed went broke or always had other sources of income and just wanted to curate a public image of making it through poker

it's actually something i'm admittedly deeply insecure of myself, i'll always wonder if the people i communicate here think i went busto and couldn't admit it

Are you out of your mind???

50/hr isn’t what winning players make, it’s what the big winners will make. Most pros are making less than that. A 10k downswing is definitely not unheard of but it’s pretty unusual, especially if you are buying in for 100 bb’s.

I beat 5/5 for 70k in 2010 to 2012 having played for 2k hours. But im not a winning player. I simply lost my job, bought in with my last $800,- won some money, paid the rent and bills and kept playing for almost 2 years, never having more then 5k. Somehow never went broke and kept up the sunrun untill a met a girl whom I married.

Looking back I sometimes thought of myself as a pokerpro, instead of the gambler I really was. Its easy to trick yourself into thinking you're a superstar when you keep on winning and variance is your friend.

Hard to quote the whole thread on this, but along those lines and what AlanBostick posted. I think the concept of an "average winning player" from the original question is kind of a trap though process to begin with.

Simplified BoStick numbers because 10:
Top 50% ( 0 std deviation) = -20/hour
Top 95% (2 standard deviations) = 0/hour
Top 99.7% (3 standard deviations) = +10/hour
Top 99.99% (4 standard deviations) = +20/hour
I personally think top .5% would be something like 25/hour and top .02% is like 50/hour. Otherwise it would be impossible to make 10bb/hour unless you're the best player in a given market.

In terms of league of legends:
Top 95% is like platinum 1
Top 97% is like diamond 4
Top 99% is like diamond 3
Top 99.7% is like Master
Top 99.95% is like grandmaster
Top 99.97% is challenger

In terms of hearth stone:
Top 98% is ranks 1-5
Top 99.5% is legendary

Point from the games is to show that being in the top .5% isn't that inconceivable especially as a pro. Most people can eventually get to those ranks with a little bit of hard work and dedication. Also, there's a massive difference between .5% and .02%, where you would be among the best in the world. And then the .0001% where you are the best.

Or maybe the distribution of players' win rates in a given market isn't actually a Gaussian.

<3 that I'm seeing things like "gaussian" mentioned in a thread

Anyways, typically "ability" distributions look log normal-ish. We know there are losers and lognormal has to be positive but anyways it's probably lognormal looking shifted to the left. Fundamentals driving that: a) vast majority of players are relatively equally garbage but there's a limit to how garbage they are and b) once you start getting to the best players the differences get bigger and bigger. Think 50 percentile income and 54 percentile income, not a big difference. Top 5% income earner v top 1% huge.

b) is true for gaussian as well, but just not as extreme.

to be fair the sample size is insufficient

I really like thinking about it in terms of percentiles. Very eye opening for me. Whether it’s Gaussian or Logbirmal. It gets me out of the thinking that everyone is winning and winning is easy.

Haven't been able to play as much as i'd like this year due to a busy work schedule and the wife and I expecting our first child.

Here's where I stand so far though. Looking back, I've been running extremely well since about June '18 which is when I made some preflop adjustments. I had a brutal breakeven stretch through 2017-2018. I also lost my first 600 hours tracked because the poker journal app is no longer supported but those old graphs are probably somewhere in this thread.

All of it is from 1/2 300 max in Atlantic City.

Gorgalosk has a solid hourly winrate but with only 60% winning sessions. This makes me think much of the hourly is coming from some big sessions.

The local 1/3 game I play in is spread limit. Bet capped at $300. I'm a rec that wants to win money, but is the cap going to kill a lot of the edge because I can't hit monster winning sessions?

60% winning sessions sounds fine to me.