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Old 10-12-2019, 05:06 PM   #24326
Dream Crusher
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
the fact still remains that if a full time 2/5 player cant make more than $28/hr he's not very skilled and if he makes a lot more than $28/hr but doesn't play very much hes lazy. It is what it is.
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
People with decent intelligence who also have patience and discipline (and emotional control) can make good money playing full time.
What I derived from these posts is that intelligence, skill, patience, discipline, and hard work are each important components to being a successful 2/5 NL grinder. Aren't these important at all levels of poker though? If you want to be able to make millions beating the biggest games in poker you just need to work hard, have a certain level of intelligence, and not have any major mental game leaks.

The problem is that everyone thinks they are intelligent and skilled. They are not. Everyone thinks they will put the work in. They won't. I don't even think most new pros even fully consider how other things like mental game will negatively impact their results.

Some posters paint a picture like becoming a successful professional poker player is easy. All you gotta do is work hard and have a certain level of intelligence. Easy enough right? Wrong. Most players will fail in this endeavor (at least that is my opinion based on little more than anecdotal evidence).
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:07 PM   #24327
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
What I derived from these posts is that intelligence, skill, patience, discipline, and hard work are each important components to being a successful 2/5 NL grinder. Aren't these important at all levels of poker though? If you want to be able to make millions beating the biggest games in poker you just need to work hard, have a certain level of intelligence, and not have any major mental game leaks.

The problem is that everyone thinks they are intelligent and skilled. They are not. Everyone thinks they will put the work in. They won't. I don't even think most new pros even fully consider how other things like mental game will negatively impact their results.

Some posters paint a picture like becoming a successful professional poker player is easy. All you gotta do is work hard and have a certain level of intelligence. Easy enough right? Wrong. Most players will fail in this endeavor (at least that is my opinion based on little more than anecdotal evidence).
I never said it was easy though, did I? Having all those traits is hard to find.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:11 PM   #24328
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Idk why everyone assumes someone who stops playing is broke lmao. I played full time, just thinking about playing now makes me want to vomit. Poker would be the perfect sideline for me too, but I just can't get myself the motivation to play again.

I made more in 1 real estate transaction than I did in almost 2 full years grinding full time. What a waste of time
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:25 PM   #24329
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Getting chippy and off topic in here. Take it easy, all.

Last edited by Garick; 10-12-2019 at 09:18 PM. Reason: posts deleted
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:23 PM   #24330
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The analysis for this legal case is super interesting. Makes me want to buy a few million hands and do similar analysis (am econometrician).

However, I don't think figure 4 is actually helpful for discussion of distribution of winrates. The expert came up with his own cute way of predicting skill level based on specific summaries of play style (I think) then drew that graph based on where the players are in that prediction. It sloped upwards, which means there's a good positive correlation between his prediction of skill and winrate. Good for him, the index he created actually predicts winrate to some extent. But it doesn't actually mean only that many players have a positive winrate. His predicted top tier can still have garbage players in it, pulling the positive winrate to zero and the predicted low tier can still have winners in it pulling the negative winrates up. What it does show though is that skillful play can be described mathematically to some extent, which is important in proving that poker is a skill game. If you said "it's skill, but I can't really say what the skill is..." then you'd have a bad time in court.
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:46 PM   #24331
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Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
Idk why everyone assumes someone who stops playing is broke lmao. I played full time, just thinking about playing now makes me want to vomit. Poker would be the perfect sideline for me too, but I just can't get myself the motivation to play again.

I made more in 1 real estate transaction than I did in almost 2 full years grinding full time. What a waste of time
+1 million. If you have the combination of intelligence and discipline necessary to kill at poker you can make a lot of low/no variance money in a profession.

I haven't met many solid consistent winners who I didn't think had the aptitude to do something else for just as much or more money. They just ended up playing more poker because they got tired of the professional grind and having a boss or didn't want to/couldn't afford to hike up the experience/education ladder. My guess is they probably could've found a better employer when they were annoyed by the office grind or gotten a premium education but poker was too tempting. Grass is always greener blah blah.

I semi-pro'd for a year playing online 15-20hrs a week 2/4 and 3/6 limit 6-max pre black Friday (note: lol what a waste of time, the effort involved to kill limit at that level would've paid back so much more in no limit). My skill level increased rapidly because I worked up from .25/.50 to those stakes so sample size wasn't massive but I crunched near the end that my hourly at that level was $40+ or - $10. Went to graduate school and it took me 5 years (lulz PhD) to get back to that hourly wage but with a few years of work experience I'm way past that in guaranteed hourly and the risky part of my compensation is stock so even non-guaranteed money won't get "coolered" unless we have another great recession, it'll just not be as much as I want. Opportunity cost of that time in school would've been high if not for black Friday, but now I have a much better way to cover my nut than poker.
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:47 PM   #24332
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The turnover is admittedly concerning. I’ve only been doing this for 1.5 years so I haven’t really seen it but I hear the conversations between pros about how few people are left from 3-5 years ago.

I hope I’m not burying my head in the sand when I think I won’t be part of that statistic.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 10-12-2019 at 09:56 PM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 09:53 PM   #24333
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Originally Posted by reaper6788 View Post
The analysis for this legal case is super interesting. Makes me want to buy a few million hands and do similar analysis (am econometrician).

However, I don't think figure 4 is actually helpful for discussion of distribution of winrates. The expert came up with his own cute way of predicting skill level based on specific summaries of play style (I think) then drew that graph based on where the players are in that prediction. It sloped upwards, which means there's a good positive correlation between his prediction of skill and winrate. Good for him, the index he created actually predicts winrate to some extent. But it doesn't actually mean only that many players have a positive winrate. His predicted top tier can still have garbage players in it, pulling the positive winrate to zero and the predicted low tier can still have winners in it pulling the negative winrates up. What it does show though is that skillful play can be described mathematically to some extent, which is important in proving that poker is a skill game. If you said "it's skill, but I can't really say what the skill is..." then you'd have a bad time in court.
Thanks for this info. I was somewhat skeptical about how he was able to determine who the skilled players were.
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Old 10-13-2019, 01:01 AM   #24334
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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
The turnover is admittedly concerning. I’ve only been doing this for 1.5 years so I haven’t really seen it but I hear the conversations between pros about how few people are left from 3-5 years ago.

I hope I’m not burying my head in the sand when I think I won’t be part of that statistic.
Have a backup plan and have a separate life roll. Leave yourself an out
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Old 10-13-2019, 02:21 AM   #24335
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By fortuitous coincidence, the 95th percentile is very close to the two-sigma level of the positive side of the normal (Gaussian) distribution. This means that breakeven is two sigmas above the average loss rate of all players.

And what is the average loss rate for all players? It is, quite simply, what every player pays on average in rake.

In my local 2-3-5 game, $6 gets taken out of every pot that sees a flop. Something like 30 hands per hour are dealt, so $180/hour goes down the slot. For a ten-handed game, this means each player is losing $18/hour, or 3.6 big blinds/hour.

95% of players lose, so the two-sigma mark is at breakeven, so a good guess at a distribution of winrates for the player pool is a Gaussian whose mean is at -3.6 bb/hour and whose standard deviation is 1.8 bb/hr.

p(w) = 1/[1.8* sqrt(2* pi)] * exp[(w + 3.6)^2/(2 * 1.8^2)]

Suppose someone has played a specific number of hours of the game, and has wons a specific number of big blinds. The frequentist best guess for their winrate is the total bets won divided by the total hours played. But if we are good Bayesians, we can use this probability distribution of winrates to compute the most likely true winrate for the player, given this distribution and their measured results, using the methodology outlined on pp. 40-43 of The Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman.
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Old 10-13-2019, 02:30 AM   #24336
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Thanks for this info. I was somewhat skeptical about how he was able to determine who the skilled players were.
No problem.

The more I read this the more interesting it is. DeRosa's arguments do not appear to be intellectually honest to me.

Figure 7 of cumulative winning from coinflips is hilarious because in one way it's dumb but an another way it's completely correct. Heeb's figure 1 of cumulative winnings and the discussion around it was overly simplistic, he walked right into the figure 7 counter argument. Both figure 7 and figure 1 are plots of random walks. So yeah, they effing look the similar if you take the top and bottom winrates. The thing is that figure 1 are a bunch of random walks with drift, drift being the winrates while figure 7 is a bunch of random walks with no drift so the spread out is random and any given upward line can suddenly crash downward forever just as likely as it would keep shooting upward. In other words, take any group of "consistent winners" from the coin flipping game and now just continue the plot from the end, they'll spread out randomly again with some looking like winners and some losers from the high starting point because they are perfect random walks just spreading outward randomly. If you took the consistent winners from poker in figure 1 then continued their plots they will continue on being positive unless the players go on mega tilt or take shots they should not be. That's because their time series are random walks plus drift, with the drift being their skill.

Lol at p36 about DeRosa not discussing Heeb's analysis showing winning players won money with QsJs while losing players lost money with it. Just lol.

DeRosa's argument that the skilled player not being guaranteed to win every hand means poker is not a skill game is some of the most incredible nonsense I've ever read from an expert testimony. He couldn't possibly actually think that.

The argument on page 45 that since 75% of hands end without showdown that skill has to be involved is excellent and the government counter to it is ridiculous. They say because poker decisions revolve around random cards that it's all chance. Football game starts with a coin flip, doesn't negate the skill of rest of the game because decisions were made around that flip.
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Old 10-13-2019, 02:39 AM   #24337
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
By fortuitous coincidence, the 95th percentile is very close to the two-sigma level of the positive side of the normal (Gaussian) distribution. This means that breakeven is two sigmas above the average loss rate of all players.

And what is the average loss rate for all players? It is, quite simply, what every player pays on average in rake.

In my local 2-3-5 game, $6 gets taken out of every pot that sees a flop. Something like 30 hands per hour are dealt, so $180/hour goes down the slot. For a ten-handed game, this means each player is losing $18/hour, or 3.6 big blinds/hour.

95% of players lose, so the two-sigma mark is at breakeven, so a good guess at a distribution of winrates for the player pool is a Gaussian whose mean is at -3.6 bb/hour and whose standard deviation is 1.8 bb/hr.

p(w) = 1/[1.8* sqrt(2* pi)] * exp[(w + 3.6)^2/(2 * 1.8^2)]

Suppose someone has played a specific number of hours of the game, and has wons a specific number of big blinds. The frequentist best guess for their winrate is the total bets won divided by the total hours played. But if we are good Bayesians, we can use this probability distribution of winrates to compute the most likely true winrate for the player, given this distribution and their measured results, using the methodology outlined on pp. 40-43 of The Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman.
Good approximation but be careful with it. The % of winners is partially determined by the rake. Wherever you are getting that %-tile breakeven number, it has to be from the exact same game you are using the rake number for to back out that standard deviation. Someone looking at a different raked game could come up with a very different answer if they use the same % tile.
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Old 10-13-2019, 12:23 PM   #24338
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True, but a Bayesian prior pulled out of our ass is better than nothing.
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:17 PM   #24339
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1400 hour update from the 1/2 and 1/3 stakes. Most hours come from a game that plays bigger than typical 1/3, closer to 2/5. Biggest downswing to date earlier this year, right at $5k.

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Old 10-14-2019, 04:35 PM   #24340
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Nice work!
Looks like close to $50/hour?
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:37 PM   #24341
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Nice work!
Looks like close to $50/hour?
Id say its about $52.61/hr
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:38 PM   #24342
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What a tool
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:03 PM   #24343
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What a tool
excel is a hellova tool!
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:03 PM   #24344
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I cant answer all of these questions and I doubt anyone else can either. Nobody really knows what anyone else makes or loses unless they are close friends. But if you are a "full time" player, and you arent making more than $50K, you probably wont last long. $50K isn't that much money if its your only income.
LOL. ive never made 50k, my best year was 48k and most years was between 30k and 45k for the last 20-30 years. and of course its my only income, unless u count slot or BJ wins too but i lose as much as i win there. usually more. u certainly dont need 50k or higher to last many years. some states 50k is in the top 20%, some places its in the bottom 20%. some states u can live like a king for 25k a year. some states u live in the ghetto with 75k where u live matters.
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:23 PM   #24345
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After playing pretty much full time for the first time this year (mostly 2/5 and 5-card Omaha, with 1/3 and 5/10 mixed in), I’m also gonna be in the $40-$50k range after 2200 hours (as long as I don’t completely crap out for the rest of 2019) and I am pretty satisfied with my progress. Have lots to improve like playing deeper (I mainly short stack), using PIO/solvers, refining my PLO strat, gradually moving up from 2/5. Definitely not planning on quitting anytime soon either.

It’s definitely painting with a broad brush to say anyone who can’t make X shouldn’t play or won’t last. People define success and satisfaction differently depending on who you talk to.

Also this fails to account for growth over time. Just because someone doesn’t make >$50k their first year doesn’t mean they should quit. It just means they can still improve a lot (if making more is important to them).

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Old 10-15-2019, 01:51 AM   #24346
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2/5 Bankroll and hourly

What is a realistic hourly for a winning 2/5 player? I have heard $50 hourly is what the winning players can make. How many hours will it take to have a realistic idea of an actual hourly? I started on 7k upswing and now on 10k downswing(with small winning sessions during downswing) but is this normal?
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Old 10-15-2019, 04:21 AM   #24347
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Re: 2/5 Bankroll and hourly

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...nances-771192/
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Old 10-15-2019, 07:21 AM   #24348
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$50/hr is very optimistic. While there is a graph above you of someone doing that, he's a rather extreme outlier.

General rule of thumb is that winning players rarely top 10BB/hr, and even that is only the toppest regs who aren't outliers. If you've had a 10K downswing already, you likely don't fall in that category. While downswings will happen, that is a big one, and very early in your sample.

Generally accepted meaningful sample is 1,000 hours, though your SDev is key to the value of your sample size, with smaller SDevs making smaller margins of error over smaller samples and vice versa.
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Old 10-15-2019, 08:47 AM   #24349
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I have some doubts about what would be considered a big rake, and to calculate if the games available for me are beatable due to it rake and table dinamics.

I appreciate the number of times (once a week maybe) that Garick contests, about the standard winrate after a sample >24.000 posts ITT, that:
10bb/h you are crushing, 5bb/h are what good regs that study makes and ABC players/OMC are usually breakeven.

But I’ve found little or no information about the rake to acomplish this WRs and stack depth.

So... I play on Spain.
On my usual poker room we have 10% rake capped:
1/2 cap to 8€ (4bb), 1/3 cap to 10€ (3,33bb), 2/5 cap to 13€ (2,60bb).

As I can see, around here a rake > 3,5bb would be consider too high. And a rake < 3bb would be consider a nice rake.

We rarely have 5/T tables so all the good regs are grinding 2/5.
I usually play 1/3.

1/2 are really soft and 2/5 are a bog challenge for me.

On 1/3 we have a minimum of 50€ buyin and a maximum of 500€. Same for 1/2.
2/5 are 100€-1.000€.

On 1/3 on saturdays are usually something like:
3 guys with 100-150€
3 guys with 200-300€
2 guys with 300-400€
1 guy 500€

Usually made by regs and recs that go by frequently (rare to see unknows).

On your opinion and experience, is this a beatable game?
Would you guys be willing to expend your time grinding a pool like this?

I want personal opinion, like:
HELL YEAH, SEENS SWEET!

Or

HELL NO, I WOULD RATHER BE BETTING ON THE GREEN AT ROULETTE.

Thank you
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Old 10-15-2019, 09:18 AM   #24350
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Re: 2/5 Bankroll and hourly

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What is a realistic hourly for a winning 2/5 player? I have heard $50 hourly is what the winning players can make. How many hours will it take to have a realistic idea of an actual hourly? I started on 7k upswing and now on 10k downswing(with small winning sessions during downswing) but is this normal?
Depends on the kind of 2/5 game this is, $500 cap or $1500 cap? Depends on your play style as well. 10k downswings aren't really normal at average 2/5 if you're a very good player, but they can happen on rare occasion.
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