Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
There is a formula that will calculate an hourly range based on what % confindence you want in it, like 90%, 95%, 99%, etc. You just need how many hours played, hourly rate and hourly standard deviation over that sample.
the data set that you use for those statistics bell curves cant be reliant on values from variables that cannot be calculated. in other words looking at your +$ & -$ as a basis for statistical analysis will give you a result, but that result will not mean anything because those numbers were generated from situations that can never be identically replicated and thus future outcomes cannot be predicted based on past results. here's some examples of what i mean:
1) how much of an edge do you currently have on an ever-changing revolving door of players? how would you quantify an edge? bb/hr?
2) is your edge decreasing or increasing vs the general population that you play with? how fast or slow is this? how would you quantify this?
3) are you game selecting well always? or just sometimes? how do attach a number to represent this qualitative aspect of poker?
4) are you running + or - EV? how would you know unless everything went to showdown, villains always showed the losing hand, and you pokerstoved every live hand?
i think that illustrates my point enough...I dont believe the winrate can be counted on long term and I dont think calculating a number that is dependent on so, so many volatile variables (they're all over the place) is particularly useful for any purpose.
not only that, but there are so many millions of permuatations of board textures & hand combos that in order to get a decent sample on any 1 particular scenario you'd have to play a lifetime of poker & document everything
i think in summary the overall idea is that LLSNL stakes ARE high enough to make at least a mid 5 figure income and the best of the best can make well into 6 figures. thats my best guess.
Last edited by Ssslipnssslide; 09-16-2012 at 11:08 PM.