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Old 09-16-2012, 07:20 PM   #2401
RobFarha
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The real question is why not move up if you beat 1/2 for that much?

2/5+ is scarce in some places I guess?
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Old 09-16-2012, 07:46 PM   #2402
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Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
What's with all this. $24/hour is not that high for 1/2 at all. Completely reasonable to win 10bbs/hour when people gift stacks all the time with ridiculous plays.

this. I'm at 15BB/hr at 1/2 and 3/3 over 600 hours. I'm certainly not the best or smartest poster on this forum and I think I leave money out on the table most if not all times I play.

I think 20BB/hr is possible.
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Old 09-16-2012, 07:52 PM   #2403
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Re: Is 900 hrs enough to evaluate game play?

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Edit: If you've been a solid winner for 900 hrs live over 3 years, I'm inclined to say that you're probably a winning player. Yea, you may have been on a long upswing during that time, but that's unlikely.

this stuff gives me a headache. 'probably' means waaaay more than 99% likely. more than 99.9% likely in live poker.

if you're a 10bb hr winner over 900 hours, remember there is just as much chance of your real win rate being a 20bb/hr winner as there is of you being a losing player
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Old 09-16-2012, 10:28 PM   #2404
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There is a formula that will calculate an hourly range based on what % confindence you want in it, like 90%, 95%, 99%, etc. You just need how many hours played, hourly rate and hourly standard deviation over that sample.
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Old 09-16-2012, 11:01 PM   #2405
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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There is a formula that will calculate an hourly range based on what % confindence you want in it, like 90%, 95%, 99%, etc. You just need how many hours played, hourly rate and hourly standard deviation over that sample.
the data set that you use for those statistics bell curves cant be reliant on values from variables that cannot be calculated. in other words looking at your +$ & -$ as a basis for statistical analysis will give you a result, but that result will not mean anything because those numbers were generated from situations that can never be identically replicated and thus future outcomes cannot be predicted based on past results. here's some examples of what i mean:

1) how much of an edge do you currently have on an ever-changing revolving door of players? how would you quantify an edge? bb/hr?
2) is your edge decreasing or increasing vs the general population that you play with? how fast or slow is this? how would you quantify this?
3) are you game selecting well always? or just sometimes? how do attach a number to represent this qualitative aspect of poker?
4) are you running + or - EV? how would you know unless everything went to showdown, villains always showed the losing hand, and you pokerstoved every live hand?

i think that illustrates my point enough...I dont believe the winrate can be counted on long term and I dont think calculating a number that is dependent on so, so many volatile variables (they're all over the place) is particularly useful for any purpose.

not only that, but there are so many millions of permuatations of board textures & hand combos that in order to get a decent sample on any 1 particular scenario you'd have to play a lifetime of poker & document everything


i think in summary the overall idea is that LLSNL stakes ARE high enough to make at least a mid 5 figure income and the best of the best can make well into 6 figures. thats my best guess.

Last edited by Ssslipnssslide; 09-16-2012 at 11:08 PM.
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Old 09-16-2012, 11:02 PM   #2406
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I have it from a reliable source who has more hours by far than any of the numbers posted recently ITT that $24 is not out of the question at all at $1/$2. He could be lying but I have every reason to believe him.
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Old 09-16-2012, 11:18 PM   #2407
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have it from a reliable source who has more hours by far than any of the numbers posted recently ITT that $24 is not out of the question at all at $1/$2. He could be lying but I have every reason to believe him.
agree
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Old 09-16-2012, 11:41 PM   #2408
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by PolProf View Post
I have it from a reliable source who has more hours by far than any of the numbers posted recently ITT that $24 is not out of the question at all at $1/$2. He could be lying but I have every reason to believe him.
easily. there will be people making more than 40 an hour over the long term...the only limiter will be that they would move up in stakes
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:55 PM   #2409
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Angry Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

Hi all, I just did a rough estimate on gas/toll cost for just over 200 hrs of play the past year or so. And it came out to be just under $500! So I'm wondering whether anyone here takes that into consideration when tracking your win rates/profits, etc.
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Old 09-17-2012, 01:00 PM   #2410
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

if you're using your win-rate as a determinant of skill/progression, it doesn't matter as long as you're consistent; however, most people calculate their win-rates w/o things like drink/food orders/transit cost, so if you're comparing yourself to others just leave it out. if you're using your win-rate to help figure out life expenses/bills, just include gas prices into your monthly spending cost just like anything else, because subtracting it to win-rate isn't really accurate (where do you draw the line, at anything that eats money? bathroom breaks? food orders?), and the other thing is that it can't be represented as by x$/h because the distance to/from the casino is the same whether you play 2 hours or 12 hours.
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:14 PM   #2411
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Hi all, I just did a rough estimate on gas/toll cost for just over 200 hrs of play the past year or so. And it came out to be just under $500! So I'm wondering whether anyone here takes that into consideration when tracking your win rates/profits, etc.
You take it into consideration in reducing your profit, but NOT your win rate.

Win rate = gross revenue/ receipts/ whatever

Gas and tolls = expenses

Win rate - expenses = net profit

Mind you, this is all an academic exercise; even if you play pro in the US, the IRS does not allow you to claim gas or tolls as expenses.
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:45 PM   #2412
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Originally Posted by young dude View Post
Hi all, I just did a rough estimate on gas/toll cost for just over 200 hrs of play the past year or so. And it came out to be just under $500! So I'm wondering whether anyone here takes that into consideration when tracking your win rates/profits, etc.
I've spent like 1k+ in travel expenses the 2 months I played in London and other places. Taxi every day and hotel can do that.
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:58 PM   #2413
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Mind you, this is all an academic exercise; even if you play pro in the US, the IRS does not allow you to claim gas or tolls as expenses.
You're also supposed to report the result of each wager, as in, every pot.
And you're not supposed to "claim" tips to the waitresses ... but those typically come right off your stack and get lumped into win/loss.
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Old 09-17-2012, 05:03 PM   #2414
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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You're also supposed to report the result of each wager, as in, every pot.
And you're not supposed to "claim" tips to the waitresses ... but those typically come right off your stack and get lumped into win/loss.
2+2 has a poster named Russ Fox who is a CPA specializing in gambling related tax issues. Russ says that reporting by session, rather than by hand, is acceptable to the IRS.

He has a sticky in the legislation forum for anybody who wants to get really educated about tax issues.
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Old 09-17-2012, 06:00 PM   #2415
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Re: Factoring in Gas Cost in Win Rate/Profit?

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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
2+2 has a poster named Russ Fox who is a CPA specializing in gambling related tax issues. Russ says that reporting by session, rather than by hand, is acceptable to the IRS.

He has a sticky in the legislation forum for anybody who wants to get really educated about tax issues.
Good to know. Different from what my accountant said (on short research).
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Old 09-17-2012, 06:08 PM   #2416
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, don't take it as a negative against your accountant. If I'm remembering what Russ has said correctly, there is no definitive statement by the IRS that reporting cash games by the session is the correct way to do it. Russ takes that position partly because it's the only practical way to do it, and partly because the IRS considers a tournament a single wager (thus establishing that a series of hands can be treated as a single event). So he does all his cash game clients by session and the IRS has never hassled them over it.
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:30 PM   #2417
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
easily. there will be people making more than 40 an hour over the long term...the only limiter will be that they would move up in stakes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
What's with all this. $24/hour is not that high for 1/2 at all. Completely reasonable to win 10bbs/hour when people gift stacks all the time with ridiculous plays.
I find the play to be kind of nitty at a lot of tables after the flop. People will call with junk before the flop, but pots rarely get that big. Sometimes it will take a while before someone gets their stack in. Also, a lot of people will buy in small, or have small stacks at the table. So even if they play really badly, you won't win much from them. Another problem is it's hard to make a big hand. And even if you do, people are often reluctant to pay off. Even if the pot gets big, once you start betting around 40-100 dollars, people seem to be much more reluctant to pay off. And if they are paying you off, you're often going to need something better than just top pair, and it can take a long time to get a better hand than that.

I don't really find that these no limit tables are filled with a bunch of morons who have no clue about how to play the game. Most of the players still have plenty of leaks, but they're not as bad as some people are here say they are. If you play a TAG style and you're not getting many hands, a lot of people tend to think you're a nit and will be afraid to pay you off.

There are also a bunch of ways to run bad in this game. I remember reading an article from Ed Miller from a few months ago about 5 different ways to run bad.

For reasons such as these, I'm skeptical of some of the higher win rates. I definitely don't remember anyone saying they beat the game for $40 an hour over a long period of time. If that winrate is something that we can do, then I'd really like someone to educate me on that because it sounds super hard to believe.

On the other hand, I am less skeptical about high winrates from the players who are regulars on this site for obvious reasons.
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:08 PM   #2418
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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There are also a bunch of ways to run bad in this game. I remember reading an article from Ed Miller from a few months ago about 5 different ways to run bad.
there are just as many ways to run good
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:46 PM   #2419
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For reasons such as these, I'm skeptical of some of the higher win rates. I definitely don't remember anyone saying they beat the game for $40 an hour over a long period of time. If that winrate is something that we can do, then I'd really like someone to educate me on that because it sounds super hard to believe.

On the other hand, I am less skeptical about high winrates from the players who are regulars on this site for obvious reasons.

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not the best low stakes player by a long shot - there are better people to give out advice than me.

that said, I'm a 14.8 BB/hr winner at 1/2 and 3/3 over a reasonable sample size - 600 hours. I'm on a bit of a heater recently (see my AA thread in the forum) but until a few weeks ago, I actually think I was running below EV.

I've picked up 3 things from a few of the posters on here I really respect (DGI Harris and Rusty Bumwaters specifically) which have improved my win rate considerably.

1. Improve your bet sizing.
2. Force yourself to value bet more in thin value situations
3. Resist the temptation to see the extra card when you have marginal holdings

I bet if you do these three things, you'll more than double your win rate
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Old 09-18-2012, 07:22 AM   #2420
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Getting value with proper bet sizing especially overbetting and image creation can do lots for your winrate.

Being able to adjust between fat value and big bluffs based on dynamic is key too.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:14 PM   #2421
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I had an accountant tell me that I could write my polo hoodie off as a business expense, since I bought it to be able to play comfortably at an ice cold casino. Not sure why we can't call gas/tolls a business expense if this is somehow possible lol.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:34 PM   #2422
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Because I can't deduct my driving expenses on my way to work.

You are basically saying that all vehicles and methods of transportation are tax deductible.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:57 PM   #2423
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by PolProf View Post
I have it from a reliable source who has more hours by far than any of the numbers posted recently ITT that $24 is not out of the question at all at $1/$2. He could be lying but I have every reason to believe him.
With all due respect, and I do mean this sincerely, making a logical argument using a reference to authority holds absolutely no validity if you do not establish the authority of your reference. Which is not to say that you need to tell us that your source is specifically Phil Ivey (or whoever) but simply playing 10,000 hours of 1/2 is not sufficient grounds for being an authority on win rates.

And your coda that "he could be lying" certainly also does not help your claim.

Having said that, if your source has access to data that show that $24/hour is sustainable over the long run, we would all love to see it.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:34 PM   #2424
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With all due respect, and I do mean this sincerely, making a logical argument using a reference to authority holds absolutely no validity if you do not establish the authority of your reference. Which is not to say that you need to tell us that your source is specifically Phil Ivey (or whoever) but simply playing 10,000 hours of 1/2 is not sufficient grounds for being an authority on win rates.

And your coda that "he could be lying" certainly also does not help your claim.

Having said that, if your source has access to data that show that $24/hour is sustainable over the long run, we would all love to see it.
My source has several thousand hours at 1/2. I know that he has kept meticulous records. I do not think he would share such records on a public forum which is his right.

Playing that much doesn't make him an authority, his results stand on their own. I mean it's not likely we are going to find thousands and thousands of players, all of whom have thousands of hours played at a given live level, who will come share their data on this forum. That's just not going to happen when we are discussing live results.

So all we can do is go with the small sample of players who do have big sample sizes and make some inferences about win rates. That was my point.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:43 PM   #2425
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That's cool. I was just unclear as to whether this was another case of someone knowing an individual who is making $XX/hour over a large sample size or a case of someone having access to a larger amount of data or some mathematical model that can show us under some/what set of conditions, $XX/hour is a sustainable rate for $1/$2 for YY% of players.
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