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Old 09-13-2012, 02:42 AM   #2351
NickTheNit
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have the shallowest Bankroll but my local casino's lowest limit is 1/2 100bb max...
also my sample is terribly small
I have had 7 3hours sessions and won all 7 for a whopping 1010$ for hourlyrate of +25bb/h
my casino is full of fish and I play quite a tight game (always waiting for good easy spots)
AND I buyin for 75bb because my roll is so low
What can you conclude of this? Nothing because sample is so low?lol Probably variance? or (I wish lol) crushing the game?
(1st post sup 2+2ers)
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Old 09-13-2012, 04:49 AM   #2352
LOLshoveaments
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Small sample size, plus you're probably hitting a lot of hands.
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Old 09-13-2012, 05:03 AM   #2353
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Plus it sounds like you have been doing a lot of hittin'-n-runnin'.

New players also have the advantage of being strangers to regulars, who will undoubtedly start to figure out how you play and adjust, albeit slowly for most.
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Old 09-13-2012, 05:09 AM   #2354
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
Plus it sounds like you have been doing a lot of hittin'-n-runnin'.

New players also have the advantage of being strangers to regulars, who will undoubtedly start to figure out how you play and adjust, albeit slowly for most.
Hitting and running is smart when you are building a bankroll.

Double up and leave. The room will be there tomorrow, the next day.
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Old 09-13-2012, 05:19 AM   #2355
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Hitting and running is smart when you are building a bankroll.

Double up and leave. The room will be there tomorrow, the next day.
I do agree, but it does tend to skew the WR.
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Old 09-13-2012, 06:18 AM   #2356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Would it really? Wouldn't hit and running mean that you are more likely to have many small winning sessions and just have a smaller sample of data?

On the other hand if you have a bad session you just end up grinding it out, so it means your data is more likely to be skewed, but it doesn't necessarily skew it in any specific direction, so it's still "averaged".

I guess if you use the line of thinking that only people with good positive winrates posts their winrates, then hit and running will mean that more people will have positive winrates because people in general have smaller samples.

I don't get hit and running. Leaving if you're deep and not comfortable playing deep, or when games not good is fine, I suppose, but if game's good, then stay. You can always choose to play more tentatively in big pots. I don't think it necessarily decreases your edge that much. Just pot control more and only value bet thin against easy targets (those who are less likely to raise, etc)
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Old 09-13-2012, 11:54 AM   #2357
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I don't get hit and running. Leaving if you're deep and not comfortable playing deep, or when games not good is fine, I suppose, but if game's good, then stay. You can always choose to play more tentatively in big pots. I don't think it necessarily decreases your edge that much. Just pot control more and only value bet thin against easy targets (those who are less likely to raise, etc)
When i was building a bankroll i would hit and run for purely psychological reasons.

Say i was up 400 in a 1/2 session, ate a cooler to go back to even. I was then very likely to tilt hard and book a big loss
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Old 09-13-2012, 11:56 AM   #2358
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Most people who are trying to grind a roll HnR because they do't want to play deep. I'm happy playing deep so it doesn't bother me but I have no problem with someone who's starting out getting out of the game when they're 160bb deep and that money means a lot to them. Just as long as the play the obligatory 3 orbits before splitting
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:08 PM   #2359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
This is definitely a fair point, but even assuming that no losing players will ever post, that still does not explain why we literally have 0 people who post slightly-above-break-even win rates. How many times have you ever seen someone post that they're averaging $5.43 hourly at 1/2? There are obviously going to be more of these players than ones averaging $25.43.
Full disclosure: My lifetime 1/2 NL live winrate is $2.49/hr. Up $327 in 131.08 hours. However, the majority of those hours were my first 100 hours of playing NL having come from limit, and it took me a while to realize you can't play both games the same way.

My room then changed the 1/2 NL game into a 1/3 NL game, and the rest, as they say, is history (~$24/hr over 730 hours). Course, I'm also running hotter than the sun recently (up $3651 in my last 51.16 hours, for I'm sure a totally sustainable $71.36/hr clip).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:27 PM   #2360
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't get hit and running. Leaving if you're deep and not comfortable playing deep, or when games not good is fine, I suppose, but if game's good, then stay. You can always choose to play more tentatively in big pots. I don't think it necessarily decreases your edge that much. Just pot control more and only value bet thin against easy targets (those who are less likely to raise, etc)
In my case im not comfortable playing deep, I don't want to play longer sessions than 4hrs yet because I am fairly new to this and don't want to go on tilt or lose concentration.. Also there might be good fish to exploit but theres also sharks that come along and I am not yet comfortable playing these sharks, so the longer I stay the more time he gets to figure me out and greater chances that I get into pots with them.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:37 PM   #2361
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One thing I think is important to remember is the number of hours played at its effect on winrate.

Just recently played about 8 hours at a local casino and dropped $350. Played another 6 hours and won basically $350.

My WR for those 14 hours was eff $0. It also dropped my overall WR about $1 per hour just simply because I played a bunch of hours and made $0. Since my WR is above $0 a stretch of hours with a $0 WR will drop my overall.

Cliffs: play hours not sessions. WR will become evident.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:41 PM   #2362
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Would it really? Wouldn't hit and running mean that you are more likely to have many small winning sessions and just have a smaller sample of data?

On the other hand if you have a bad session you just end up grinding it out, so it means your data is more likely to be skewed, but it doesn't necessarily skew it in any specific direction, so it's still "averaged".

I guess if you use the line of thinking that only people with good positive winrates posts their winrates, then hit and running will mean that more people will have positive winrates because people in general have smaller samples.

I don't get hit and running. Leaving if you're deep and not comfortable playing deep, or when games not good is fine, I suppose, but if game's good, then stay. You can always choose to play more tentatively in big pots. I don't think it necessarily decreases your edge that much. Just pot control more and only value bet thin against easy targets (those who are less likely to raise, etc)
Part of the essentials of optimal short-stacking poker is running after you hit and come back with short stack again.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:54 PM   #2363
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Part of the essentials of optimal short-stacking poker is running after you hit and come back with short stack again.
This is what I would think too. But then you'd think the time spent inbetween getting back on the table (sitting out required time, travelling/gas to another casino, etc.) would have to be taken into account as part of your poker hours and obliterate your winrate. I mean, if you could just table hop to the table beside you when you double up and rebuy in for short, then fine; otherwise, meh.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:57 PM   #2364
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You could in Commerce!
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:19 PM   #2365
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You could in Commerce!
Really? Wow. Our room has a "got to sit out for an hour rule" or something like that which I'm sure is there to prevent this sort of thing.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:47 PM   #2366
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
good idea. i was waiting to have a bigger sample size before i posted but i think i'm going to do the same thing.


Sessions - 16

Total Hours - 177

Cashed - 62% (10/16)

$/Hour - $32.20

$/Session - $356.25

Profit - $5700


I actually expect my hourly will go up in the next 100 hours. I had a nasty little 8 session streak of losing my first buy in, which isn't common. I've also worked out some small leaks that were holding me back a little. My goal is to maintain around $50/hour, $500/session. Wish me luck, I'll update at 250 hours.


edit: i should also mention that i had to start my tracking over again about 3 weeks ago, i needed a system that would break down results by day of the week so i could figure out the best schedule to play.
What did you come up with to do that filter?
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Old 09-13-2012, 02:15 PM   #2367
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm about a week away from making the move to playing predominately 2/5.

1/2 results since I started playing live in October.
364.85 hrs played, +$13780

1/2 results since February.
255.18 hrs, +$12685

Some notes:
- didn't start regularly buying in for 100bb+ until february
- strict stop loss of 2-2.5 buy-ins
- average session is probably 3-4 hours, longest is 6.5 hrs which is a function of my regular game only running from ~7pm-2am daily and me usually quitting when I don't feel focused.
- buy-in for my game is 50-300. three or more 300bb+ stacks are not uncommon.
- I hope I never get a meaningful sample


I'm moving to a new room that's open 24hrs so one of the things i'm going to closely track is how longer sessions affect my results and focus at the table. I'm pretty confident in my play and am looking forward to playing 2/5 regularly at the new room.
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:32 AM   #2368
RobFarha
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

13k is way overrolled for 2/5. I started taking shots like 6-7k.

300bb buyin is pretty sick. You can always buy in for whatever you feel comfortable with. Just cause the max is 300bb doesnt mean your playing short with 150bbs.

Thats 38$/hr at 1/2 which is absolutely crushing...

Why didn't you move up sooner? Do you live off your roll?
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:54 AM   #2369
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Full disclosure: My lifetime 1/2 NL live winrate is $2.49/hr. Up $327 in 131.08 hours. However, the majority of those hours were my first 100 hours of playing NL having come from limit, and it took me a while to realize you can't play both games the same way.

My room then changed the 1/2 NL game into a 1/3 NL game, and the rest, as they say, is history (~$24/hr over 730 hours). Course, I'm also running hotter than the sun recently (up $3651 in my last 51.16 hours, for I'm sure a totally sustainable $71.36/hr clip).

GcluelessNLnoobG
I think it's fair to filter only recent results providing your recent results are of a decent volume (more than a hundred or two hours hopefully).
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Old 09-14-2012, 03:56 AM   #2370
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That's a good point I doubt I'd ever get a meaningful sample at 1/2 ever, though considering how hard it is to actually get seats at 2/5 before they break sometimes maybe I'll eventually get 1k hours. Eventually.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:03 AM   #2371
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

sup rob did you get a chance to hit up sushi roku yet? love the trip reports!

yeah 13k is way overrolled. I'm only at 8k right now. I'm -1k in non 1/2 nlhe games which is maybe an additional 50 hours in plo, rxr, and mixed games. and then another 3k ish in tourney buy-ins, a wsop trip, and a nashville bachelor party

max buiyin is $300 but $600+ stacks are common.

Haven't moved up because there aren't any consistent 2/5 games close to me. I've had a job that covers my living expenses so my BR is separate from that. I'm pretty much moving so I can move up. The room also has a 5/10 game that I hope to be playing by the end of the winter. My hours are going to substantially increase since I'm probably going to go fulltime. 3 months expenses in the bank and have a job waiting for me if things don't go as planned but I'm confident that I can be a solid winner at 2/5.
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:20 AM   #2372
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Haha thanks dude. Didn't eat at sushi Roku, got stuck on Sushi-samba in the Venetian. Back home now.

Oh, I see. If your beating 1/2 for that much over 300 hours I'm sure you can beat the 2/5 for a higher hourly, just adjust your game.

Variance live can be brutal but shot-taking is more beneficial because it's pretty hard to lose 8k in 2/5 if your a winning player. Set like a 3k-4k shot and play on a weekend when the game seems better then usual.

You play good and dont run bad and then your a fixture at 2/5. Good luck
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Old 09-14-2012, 04:35 AM   #2373
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gl with that. =)
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Old 09-14-2012, 09:40 AM   #2374
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you guys include poker promotions: high hands, casino comps (can be turned into cash or be used to buy food), and visa gift cards as part of your winrate?

My local poker room rakes $1-$2 for the jackpot promotions which pays out high hands and rakes $1-$5 to pay out casino comps & gift cards.

Should it be included as part of winrate since its money coming out of pot? I use poker income as my poker app and there is no line item or area to input poker promotions. I guess it could be inputed/added to the last session of the month?
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Old 09-14-2012, 09:59 AM   #2375
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
13k is way overrolled for 2/5. I started taking shots like 6-7k.
I don't agree. I've got a 6bb/hr winrate over an 800 hour sample and I've had a 7k downswing at 2/5. It was your standard runbads - set over set, losing all-in with AA to lower pps, losing with KK to AA preflop, etc.

Sure, I'll add in another 1.5K of tilt because I'm sure I didn't play optimally, but even with a reasonable winrate over a reasonable (albeit on the small side) sample, a 6-7k bankroll means I would have gone busto.

I think $15k is where you want to start unless you're in some sort of weird super low variance game with loose passive fish who play fit or fold postflop, but I tend to play with a bunch of bad LAGs/maniacs.
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