Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
What are the biggest break even/losing stretches you guys have had at games you beat fairly well overall, in terms of hours?
I haven't had a sick one yet at live, but have had many sick ones online of course, so I know it's possible.
I have run bad since coming to Vegas, so I have pretty good data on this.
Right now, I am 62 buy ins below all in expectation since coming out here. I've played between 40k and 50k hands playing about 100 hours per month.
So that's -62buy ins in 45k hands. That is running REALLY bad.
When I was grinding online, I had a stretch in which I ran -35 buy ins below all in EV in 35k hands. During that run, I was down 12 buy ins.
I also had a period of hands online in which I ran 30 buy ins below all in EV for 50k hands. I broke even during that stretch of run bad.
Here in Vegas, running 62 buy ins below all in EV in 45k hands, has cost me -13 bb/100 hands off my win rate, or about -$10/hr. My win rate during that time is still well into positive.
So it is not only possible, but expected for a winning player live, to run really, really bad (this is my worst run of all in run bad in 2 million hands of poker) and maintain a positive win rate. Thus, your actual down swings, periods where you break even or lose, should be way shorter and shallower than online.
My results reflect this. I had a 90 hour month in which I was down 11 buy ins, and one break even month in the 15 I have been playing for income live. All the others have been winning months at an ok realized hourly rate (and a very good EV adjusted win rate).
The simple fact is that a run of bad luck such as I have had is VERY unlikely, and it has only resulted in one losing month and one break even month. So actually having a losing month should be a fairly rare experience for a winning player playing full time.
SABR has been playing live about as long as I have, and he just had what I think he said was his first losing month. His WR at 2/5 in big blinds is just a smidge higher than my EV adjusted WR at 1/2, so I think his results broadly corroborate what I'm saying.