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Old 09-09-2012, 09:19 AM   #2276
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh and being a 1/2 pro is no sweat if you live in a high volume area. Why is $20 an hour so bad? That's around what lots of college graduates get for their first job, and you have room to grow to 2/5 and bust a sweet $50/h.
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Old 09-09-2012, 09:23 AM   #2277
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Originally Posted by Eazye1269 View Post
How do you get a rakeback deal from the casino?
I get rakeback at my casino, some months based on what promo they run.
For example this month the promo is 20 hours a week Monday thru Thursday gets you $150 shell gas card, so thats the same as $600 cash extra for me this month.

Next month is the same thing but $150 visa gift cards, They don't always have great promos like that but alot of the time, the previous 3 months promo, I earned an Ipad 3, Beats pro headphones, blue shark sunglasses and a free $355 WPT entry.
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Old 09-09-2012, 11:50 AM   #2278
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I get rakeback at my casino, some months based on what promo they run.
For example this month the promo is 20 hours a week Monday thru Thursday gets you $150 shell gas card, so thats the same as $600 cash extra for me this month.

Next month is the same thing but $150 visa gift cards, They don't always have great promos like that but alot of the time, the previous 3 months promo, I earned an Ipad 3, Beats pro headphones, blue shark sunglasses and a free $355 WPT entry.
I need to buy you a drink sometime... lol
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Old 09-09-2012, 01:31 PM   #2279
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Originally Posted by Midnight Cowboy View Post
2outsNoProb, you're flat out wrong when you assume no one is playing 1/2 for a living. We can all agree there are 1/2 players who beat the game for 9-10 BB/hr. And we know there are hardworking people in this country earning less than that while busting their ass. Now, are ALL 1/2 players going to move up to 2/5 and higher? They might try, but some will get knocked back down to 1/2, a level where they feel comfortable and can beat the game handily.

2) 1500 hours, for anyone without another job, is really not asking a whole lot. This is being done on a regular basis by hundreds of 1/2 grinders.

3) you're assuming, and you're wrong

4) empethy is not alone. I play for a living, mostly 2/5 and 5/10, but just being in the card room on a regular basis, I meet 1/2 grinders, usually when they're taking shots at 2/5. I personally know several players who currently play 1/2 for a living. No, they're not getting rich, but they're making $18-24/hr, and they're not working a real job.

I tend to agree with you.

That said, winning players that make enough for a living @ 1/2 AND can sustain bankroll management properly... has to be miniscule.

I don't recommend newcomers consider attempting this until they've logged at least 600-700 hrs worth of stats and can take an honest look at their true ability vs their expectations.

Ask yourself how much hourly is needed to maintain a happy life?

Then deduct a few dollars from your current winrate and ask yourself if you'd still want to make a living at poker - as it's entirely possible that the games will dry up faster than expected.
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Old 09-09-2012, 11:55 PM   #2280
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I know loads of players who play £1/2 £2/5 for a living or supplement their income and some have been doing it for ages.

Mostly huge nits though.
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:19 AM   #2281
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I know loads of players who play £1/2 £2/5 for a living or supplement their income and some have been doing it for ages.
you brits have a few advantages over US grinders

- no taxes on gambling winnings
- free health care
- lots of deep games at 1/2 from what i heard
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:32 AM   #2282
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True; obviously can only speak from what I know. I do think 2/5 in America would probably be equatable though.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:24 AM   #2283
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What are the biggest break even/losing stretches you guys have had at games you beat fairly well overall, in terms of hours?

I haven't had a sick one yet at live, but have had many sick ones online of course, so I know it's possible.
I have run bad since coming to Vegas, so I have pretty good data on this.

Right now, I am 62 buy ins below all in expectation since coming out here. I've played between 40k and 50k hands playing about 100 hours per month.

So that's -62buy ins in 45k hands. That is running REALLY bad.

When I was grinding online, I had a stretch in which I ran -35 buy ins below all in EV in 35k hands. During that run, I was down 12 buy ins.

I also had a period of hands online in which I ran 30 buy ins below all in EV for 50k hands. I broke even during that stretch of run bad.

Here in Vegas, running 62 buy ins below all in EV in 45k hands, has cost me -13 bb/100 hands off my win rate, or about -$10/hr. My win rate during that time is still well into positive.

So it is not only possible, but expected for a winning player live, to run really, really bad (this is my worst run of all in run bad in 2 million hands of poker) and maintain a positive win rate. Thus, your actual down swings, periods where you break even or lose, should be way shorter and shallower than online.

My results reflect this. I had a 90 hour month in which I was down 11 buy ins, and one break even month in the 15 I have been playing for income live. All the others have been winning months at an ok realized hourly rate (and a very good EV adjusted win rate).

The simple fact is that a run of bad luck such as I have had is VERY unlikely, and it has only resulted in one losing month and one break even month. So actually having a losing month should be a fairly rare experience for a winning player playing full time.

SABR has been playing live about as long as I have, and he just had what I think he said was his first losing month. His WR at 2/5 in big blinds is just a smidge higher than my EV adjusted WR at 1/2, so I think his results broadly corroborate what I'm saying.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:31 AM   #2284
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Hmm yeah. How long is your longest BE/downswing in terms of hours btw? Just want to note down some numbers. I mean live obv.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:47 AM   #2285
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Hmm yeah. How long is your longest BE/downswing in terms of hours btw? Just want to note down some numbers. I mean live obv.
Oh, sorry, I thought I had noted them:

-11 buy ins in 90 hours

Break even for 122 hours.
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:06 AM   #2286
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Yeah I see, that's similar to the sort of number's I'm estimating/hearing.
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:29 AM   #2287
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
I have run bad since coming to Vegas, so I have pretty good data on this.

Right now, I am 62 buy ins below all in expectation since coming out here. I've played between 40k and 50k hands playing about 100 hours per month.

So that's -62buy ins in 45k hands. That is running REALLY bad.

When I was grinding online, I had a stretch in which I ran -35 buy ins below all in EV in 35k hands. During that run, I was down 12 buy ins.

I also had a period of hands online in which I ran 30 buy ins below all in EV for 50k hands. I broke even during that stretch of run bad.

Here in Vegas, running 62 buy ins below all in EV in 45k hands, has cost me -13 bb/100 hands off my win rate, or about -$10/hr. My win rate during that time is still well into positive.

So it is not only possible, but expected for a winning player live, to run really, really bad (this is my worst run of all in run bad in 2 million hands of poker) and maintain a positive win rate. Thus, your actual down swings, periods where you break even or lose, should be way shorter and shallower than online.

My results reflect this. I had a 90 hour month in which I was down 11 buy ins, and one break even month in the 15 I have been playing for income live. All the others have been winning months at an ok realized hourly rate (and a very good EV adjusted win rate).

The simple fact is that a run of bad luck such as I have had is VERY unlikely, and it has only resulted in one losing month and one break even month. So actually having a losing month should be a fairly rare experience for a winning player playing full time.

SABR has been playing live about as long as I have, and he just had what I think he said was his first losing month. His WR at 2/5 in big blinds is just a smidge higher than my EV adjusted WR at 1/2, so I think his results broadly corroborate what I'm saying.
Mpethybridge, what software and/or spreadsheet do you use for tracking your live play? Sorry, if that info is buried in this thread, I missed it.
Hope good fortune returns. Good Cards.
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:39 AM   #2288
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I'm primitive in that regard. I just use the notes function on my phone to record session results and all in EV in separate files. Every couple of weeks I manually input my session results into a spreadsheet I created that calculates my w/r by stakes and standard deviation.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 09-10-2012 at 11:40 AM. Reason: Typo
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Old 09-10-2012, 12:50 PM   #2289
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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
What are the biggest break even/losing stretches you guys have had at games you beat fairly well overall, in terms of hours?

I haven't had a sick one yet at live, but have had many sick ones online of course, so I know it's possible.
FWIW my current hourly at 2/5 ever since I moved up after hitting the BBJ in January is $38.42 over 807 hrs. Which is OK but I think a little low for the casino I go to.

Two biggest losing stretches are -

-$5661 over 35.5 hrs from Feb 26 to Mar 4

-$7331 over 133.75 hrs from June 5 to July 6

I attribute much of those losses on bad play; trying to rep hands/barrel too often.
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:30 PM   #2290
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Holy cow, those are huge down swings for 2/5 100bb. If you have hits like those, then the game must be rather big. WR is definitely not maximized in such game.
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:40 PM   #2291
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Yeah seems to me you might have a few big leaks, or phenomenal run bad, but obviously either are possible.
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Old 09-10-2012, 02:41 PM   #2292
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Yeah my wr is definitely lower than I'd like considering that it's one of the fishier casino's around - the variance can be sky high here. I *think* I've patched some sizable leaks since those stretches tho... being a mainly 6max online refugee moving to 10 man live tables took a lot of adjustments that I was really stubborn to make initially.
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Old 09-10-2012, 09:36 PM   #2293
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Doubling and tripling are definitely major leaks that can show up in a 6m player's game when he transitions to FR. sounds like you're doing a nice job identifying and plugging your leaks. Keep it up!
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:07 PM   #2294
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The bread and butter of LLSNL Holdem is obviously value betting.

The major leak I see in a lot of regular player's games is that they don't value bet nearly wide enough.

I'm going to go against the grain here and say that a lot of people don't double barrel enough against the right opponents either.

People will take one off on the flop so lightly that double barreling is incredibly profitably if you don't mind the variance and are rolled for the limit. Doubling the 2/5 regs in my home casino (Foxwoods) and since I've been in Vegas for 2 weeks has shown to be incredibly profitable.

If you can identify the right players, situations and turn cards to double barrel it's a good play.

Always understand your image and what opponents calling range is.

The turn bet doesn't always have to be 75% pot either.
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:30 AM   #2295
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Yeah, the double barrel is insanely profitable against the sort of player that's familiar with the concept of the cbet, knows that you like to do it, but is still a little nitty when it comes to getting their stack in light. They'll start to float against your flop aggression with any piece of the board because anything less seems weak, but get nitty when it starts to look like it'll cost them every last chip to get to showdown. Such players are pretty common at LLSNL and failing to poke at them with double barrels fairly frequently is a leak IMO.

Barreling off against other sorts of opponents is suicide, of course.

As for value betting, my rule of thumb is that if I'm not value-owning myself at least once every few sessions, I'm not value betting nearly thinly enough.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:28 AM   #2296
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Wow looking through this thread for the first time and it's really dramatic in some parts.

100 buy in bankroll requirement??

50/hr is very attainable at 2/5. You can run basic tag with sprinkles of creativity and get those numbers easy. 50/hr is even on the low side imo if you consider yourself top 10% of players in your regular 2/5 games.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:35 AM   #2297
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Wow looking through this thread for the first time and it's really dramatic in some parts.

100 buy in bankroll requirement??

50/hr is very attainable at 2/5. You can run basic tag with sprinkles of creativity and get those numbers easy. 50/hr is even on the low side imo if you consider yourself top 10% of players in your regular 2/5 games.
50/hr is very attainable in 2/5 games. I think the vagueness of your statement demonstrates a lack of understanding of different games.

For example, a 500max 2/5 on the east coast is going to have a different winrate ceiling than a 2/5 1kmax in las vegas.

I really doubt 50/hr is on the low side of a 2/5 winrate. How many regulars in your room actually have winrates worth mentioning? 7-8?

I would assume well less than 10% of players are longterm winners. Nevermind people making >50$/hr.

Something as small as your casino hiring slow dealers can have a hidden effect on your winrate.

It varies, a lot.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:53 AM   #2298
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the guy who thinks he's the best $2/$5 player in my room (he actually thinks he's the best overall) won $15K last month in 230 hours (give or take a few). that's only $65/hr and he said it was the best month he's ever had. he had a losing july.

and that's with a $1K max buyin.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:58 AM   #2299
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If you aren't better than the majority of the regulars in the game, you're not doing that well.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:04 AM   #2300
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Maybe im spoiled due to my situation and overestimating how easy the games are across the country (sick brag?)

I play in ac, borgata primarily. Perhaps the factors of many tourists and general high wealth in the tristate area soften up the games. Also borgata runs 6 to10 2-5s on weekdays which allows game selection.

I also live about 5-8 mins from borgata which i think helps my game a lot because i dont feel presure to 'win right now because i made the trip to the casino damnit'.

It seems shocking to me for a lot of posters here to claim how difficult solid 2-5 winrates are when i only experience games that are very beatable.

This is the lamest brag post ever
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