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Old 11-09-2018, 04:25 AM   #22551
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

surely the last 5 posts are counter the thread rules and deserve bans?
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:58 PM   #22552
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Yeah, fair point and mea culpa. I'll delete the derail and the responses.
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Old 11-09-2018, 06:22 PM   #22553
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Nice job! ..... Tho wouldn't $16.37/hr translate to 8.2 BB/hr at 1/2?
heh, you're right on the math. I took those numbers right from the app I use . Possible that it's including hi-hand wins ? Those were about $ 1600.
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Old 11-15-2018, 05:32 PM   #22554
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Do people over exaggerate how much you need as a bankroll for lice cash? I currently have 3.5k for 1-2 200max. I watched a neeme vid and he said a 3k swing can happen at 1-2. I feel like a player would have to really suck to go down 3k at 1-2 and prolly would be a player issue and not variance? I’m just trying to get to 2-5 and will be adding cash when I can go make bankroll. Going to take notes so I can figure out what my hourly is.... I know you need to put mass hrs to get an idea but I feel a general ballpark can be figured out over months of playing 2-3 times a week. Thanks for any advice!
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Old 11-15-2018, 05:40 PM   #22555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do people over exaggerate how much you need as a bankroll for lice cash? I currently have 3.5k for 1-2 200max. I watched a neeme vid and he said a 3k swing can happen at 1-2. I feel like a player would have to really suck to go down 3k at 1-2 and prolly would be a player issue and not variance? I’m just trying to get to 2-5 and will be adding cash when I can go make bankroll. Going to take notes so I can figure out what my hourly is.... I know you need to put mass hrs to get an idea but I feel a general ballpark can be figured out over months of playing 2-3 times a week. Thanks for any advice!
Depends also on the way you play.

The more tag is your play style, the more it will swing (both ways).

The more ABC tag-ish, the more constant income.

But swing do exist, and you can run pretty bad on "long period of time" in live. Since "long period of time" is such small amount of hands in live...
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Old 11-15-2018, 05:48 PM   #22556
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do people over exaggerate how much you need as a bankroll for lice cash? I currently have 3.5k for 1-2 200max. I watched a neeme vid and he said a 3k swing can happen at 1-2. I feel like a player would have to really suck to go down 3k at 1-2 and prolly would be a player issue and not variance? I’m just trying to get to 2-5 and will be adding cash when I can go make bankroll. Going to take notes so I can figure out what my hourly is.... I know you need to put mass hrs to get an idea but I feel a general ballpark can be figured out over months of playing 2-3 times a week. Thanks for any advice!
I have 2,114 hours of 1/2 in my database. Most of that is in $300 cap games. I always buy in for the max and anytime I'm $25 or more less than Max I always top off. Over those hours my biggest downswing was little over $1,800.

Your mileage may vary.

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Old 11-15-2018, 05:57 PM   #22557
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have 1100 hours of mostly 2/5 with a couple of $5500 downswings, which would be like 2200 at 1/2, with a high winrate (13bb/hr). It's not quite 3000, but I also have never run extremely poorly. So yeah, I bet a $3000 downswing can happen at 1/2, but plenty of players will never experience it
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Old 11-15-2018, 06:05 PM   #22558
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've got 6000 hours of live play in my log, mostly $1/2 either $200 or $300 cap (4500 at least), but more and more PLO recently.

Sample sizes less than 100 hours are garbage. Pure noise. Now you might be able to tell by the people around you or your eyeballs and experience that a game is likely to be very good or bad a lot faster, but for statistics ... 100 hours is junk. If you're only 2-3 times a week that might be 3 months.

You can have varying results over 500+ hour samples too. But that's where we can start saying something about if you're actually good or running hot. Especially coupled with hand analysis.

Over all that time I've had a couple of nasty downswings > $2k. Some of it is pure runbad, and some is always mental (even if it's subtle). But if I just look at my graph and the "noise" or random up and down oscillations in the otherwise climbing line it's over $1k wide.

A lot of the BR requirements that people state are for if you're playing for a living, or otherwise unable to replenish your roll if you go busto. So if you can peel off a couple grand of "life money" if the variance monster hits ... then $3.5k for $1/2 is fine, and I'd start taking shots at the $2/5 game (when it looks good) at $4k, dropping back to $1/2 exclusively if below $3k.
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Old 11-15-2018, 07:20 PM   #22559
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by stlows View Post
Depends also on the way you play.

The more tag is your play style, the more it will swing (both ways).

The more ABC tag-ish, the more constant income.

But swing do exist, and you can run pretty bad on "long period of time" in live. Since "long period of time" is such small amount of hands in live...
what does this even mean?
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Old 11-15-2018, 07:28 PM   #22560
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I'd guess in his previous sentence he meant "The more lag" and by ABC tag-ish he probably meant playing a tight hand range aggressively while playing hands mostly face-up for value.
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Old 11-15-2018, 07:32 PM   #22561
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I've had a really good year at 1/2 and 1/3. I play a lower variance style, by design.

I went to northern California and a few of the games I played were the best I've played all year. I take other measures to reduce variance, such as only topping of selectively. However, that weekend in Ca I was down $1600. Probably played 10-12 hours. I think I tilted a little, but not much. At my worst, I was still one of the better players on the table.

I'm pretty sure I've had 3k downswings and certainly, prolonged periods of bad loses, breaking even and modest wins.

I'm not a great player, but I'm easily a long term winner. Not "pretty bad."

Once, playing VP, I drew a straight flush draw in dueces wild, playing ten hands at once. I went 0/10. Wasn't very significant then, but I imagined how brutal it would be to have that happen over a month of real poker. That could certainly lay the foundation for a 3k+ downswing during which you begin to sincerely entertain the idea that God or the universe or something is effing with you.
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:24 PM   #22562
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The environment of the game you play in is arguably as important in determining the variance you experience as your own individual style.

If you play in shallow loose passive games where everyone plays face-up and never bluffs/semi-bluffs you'll experience much lower variance than if you play in deep aggressive games that see many 3bets/4bets preflop and lots of semi-bluffing post.
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:20 PM   #22563
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do people over exaggerate how much you need as a bankroll for lice cash? I currently have 3.5k for 1-2 200max. I watched a neeme vid and he said a 3k swing can happen at 1-2. I feel like a player would have to really suck to go down 3k at 1-2 and prolly would be a player issue and not variance? I’m just trying to get to 2-5 and will be adding cash when I can go make bankroll. Going to take notes so I can figure out what my hourly is.... I know you need to put mass hrs to get an idea but I feel a general ballpark can be figured out over months of playing 2-3 times a week. Thanks for any advice!
I had a 3k downswing when playing 1/2 during a 1000ish hour sample where I averaged around 10BB an hour. It can definitely happen and isn't that unusual. But keep in mind...

I have a very high standard deviation (currently 147BB/100) from playing sLAG

I buyin 300 at 1/2 so that's 10BI not 15

The downswing was likely exacerbated by tilt.

If you play a nitty style and have a high winrate and don't tilt ever then your risk of ruin with 3.5k is minimal. But if even one of those things isn't true I would want a bigger bankroll. Like if you win at more like 5BB/HR I wouldn't play with 3.5k unless you're super nitty.
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Old 11-15-2018, 10:37 PM   #22564
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
I had a 3k downswing when playing 1/2 during a 1000ish hour sample where I averaged around 10BB an hour. It can definitely happen and isn't that unusual. But keep in mind...

I have a very high standard deviation (currently 147BB/100) from playing sLAG

I buyin 300 at 1/2 so that's 10BI not 15

The downswing was likely exacerbated by tilt.

If you play a nitty style and have a high winrate and don't tilt ever then your risk of ruin with 3.5k is minimal. But if even one of those things isn't true I would want a bigger bankroll. Like if you win at more like 5BB/HR I wouldn't play with 3.5k unless you're super nitty.
Do you guys have any insane short runs where you make 40-100 /hr? Lol for say like 3-8 hrs? I play pretty aggro.. I wanna say laggy but prolly tag. I like to be the opening raiser in pots and focus on isoing limpers when I’m in position say on button or close to button with hands such as suited connectors or at least coordinated cards. In my first 18 hrs, I found people to play super straight up when I raise Cbet which makes the game easy as I Cbet a lot on headsup pots or against 2 opponents. I feel I do well not getting my stack in without a really good equity against opponents. I play aggro but very nitty when it comes to going all in etc (minus one poor pot I played where a player jammed like 65 bbs and I called with a draw 9-10 on a 7-88 flop) where I should have found a fold.

I’m at 16-18/hr over a super short run of cards (18 hrs lol). For first time in my life, I stay at the max buy in of 200 even if I lose some pots early. I’ve found building a stack easy even if I need to add 100-200 in my 3 sessions so far. Games I play are pretty darn nitty so I feel aggro play works well- just gotta avoid bad allin spots I guess.i feel have a bankroll helps my game as if I lose 200, it’s no real big deal if it’s due to bad variance. I’m just working on not getting it in really bad in tough spots.

Btw I’m going to try to add 40-80 dollars a week to my bankroll just from extra income. If I lose this 3k, it’s not going to crush my world. I have money to add to this but I really wanna grind cash now and not wait.

The games I play are pretty tight and people buy in for short amounts like 80-150. I wanna say max, 2-3 people at table have full buy in in front sadly.

I’m going to prolly wait a year before I take a shot at 2/5. I wanna make sure I can beat 1-2 for a solid rate of return and get my bankroll up to atleast 8k+ so I can shot take at 2/5 where I move down if it doesn’t go well. Ideally I might split 1-2 and 2-5 so my # of
Buyins is higher vs just playing 2/5. Thanks for the info on my question. Great responses. Sorry if this is a jumble as I just got back from a night out drinking with friends ha.

Last edited by Jkpoker10; 11-15-2018 at 10:45 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:05 AM   #22565
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3-8 hours means nothing. I had a 4 hour session where I won over 715/hr at 1/3 once. Really, hourly is pretty meaningless below 200 hours, and not very meaningful then.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:22 AM   #22566
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^^^^

I've played 10 hour 1/2 300 max sessions where I cashed out 3k+ on several occasions.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:04 AM   #22567
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I turned my last $80 into $6.4k once in 4 hours of 5/T.

I find this focus on winrates to be silly and even detrimental to one's game. Winrate is something you should just look back upon after thousands of hours of play, not constantly check to chart performance. In the short term, it's not terribly representative of much of anything aside from perhaps run good. Even after thousands of hours the stats aren't going to be terribly accurate if you've been working to improve your game throughout that time frame.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:35 AM   #22568
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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3-8 hours means nothing. I had a 4 hour session where I won over 715/hr at 1/3 once. Really, hourly is pretty meaningless below 200 hours, and not very meaningful then.


Same.

I’ve had sessions where my hourly was +50bbs/hr. Obviously meaningless and just massive positive variance or extreme game conditions


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Old 11-16-2018, 09:03 AM   #22569
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I once sat down and doubled up my $500 on the first hand dealt to me. The hand took about 2 mins. I thought I was going to be rich at $15,000/hr. The next hand I folded and it cut my hourly in HALF! Now that's variance!
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Old 11-16-2018, 11:47 AM   #22570
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Do people over exaggerate how much you need as a bankroll for lice cash? I currently have 3.5k for 1-2 200max. I watched a neeme vid and he said a 3k swing can happen at 1-2. I feel like a player would have to really suck to go down 3k at 1-2 and prolly would be a player issue and not variance? I’m just trying to get to 2-5 and will be adding cash when I can go make bankroll. Going to take notes so I can figure out what my hourly is.... I know you need to put mass hrs to get an idea but I feel a general ballpark can be figured out over months of playing 2-3 times a week. Thanks for any advice!
I’m not mainly a 1/2 live cash player but I do play a mix of 1/2 and low stakes mtts. This is a relatively small sample but over the course of about 20 cash sessions and 60 tournaments I’m about 3k in the red which would be about 15 1/2 buy ins.

My ITM % is pretty high though because out of the 60 or so tourneys I’ve played I’ve cashed at least 10. The biggest mistakes I’ve made are usually always on the final table bubble or at final table. This is the reason my red line has suffered the most. Those decisions improve with time though and hopefully I’ll get a better score.

My cash sample is pretty small but I’ve run horridly in cash. Just a few weeks ago I was set over set for 100bb and that’s pretty normal for me. Also, I do not play very many hands. 5 hands in an hour would be loose for me. I know the difference in ranges between mtts and cash games. I know I can play a little loser in mtts but I would say I’m still on the nittier side of a tag player. I am just now realizing I am overfolding a lot of spots and trying to work in bluffs when necessary.

I also study about 10 hours a week so we’ll see if my win rate can improve but it looks like it’s pretty easy to have 3k down swings if you mix in any amount of mtts or you’re taking shots.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:58 PM   #22571
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I once sat down and doubled up my $500 on the first hand dealt to me. The hand took about 2 mins. I thought I was going to be rich at $15,000/hr. The next hand I folded and it cut my hourly in HALF! Now that's variance!
lol wp
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Old 11-20-2018, 05:32 PM   #22572
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I'm a break-even player at $1/$2 and have never been down more than $2,500 in over 1500 hours. I've never been up more than $2,500 either.
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Old 11-20-2018, 05:44 PM   #22573
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I'm a break-even player at $1/$2 and have never been down more than $2,500 in over 1500 hours. I've never been up more than $2,500 either.

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Old 11-20-2018, 06:30 PM   #22574
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I'm a break-even player at $1/$2 and have never been down more than $2,500 in over 1500 hours. I've never been up more than $2,500 either.
Wow, that's seems like a fairly incredible feat?!?

I mean, not good enough to ever get past $2500 in profit (so, for example, at the 1500 hour mark the best you could be doing is a paltry $1.66/hr), and yet at the same time not bad enough (combined with not running into bad variance on top of extremely mediocre play) to ever lose over $2500?!?

Post the giraffe for lols?

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Old 11-20-2018, 06:34 PM   #22575
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I already posted it. See post 22531.
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