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Old 09-14-2017, 01:57 PM   #19576
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Re: 4500$ downswing

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Originally Posted by Scubafish View Post
Had a pretty good year so far, just playing weekends and nights sometimes. Have played around 350 hours this year and have won around 20,000$.
But this weekend at Playground I had a 4500$ downswing over 35 hours playing 2/5. Those 350 hrs are my first 350 hrs at 2/5. Had some bad beats. All in with 99 pre, got called by ace 3 and lost a 1200$. Called a bluff with top pair on the turn and lost 1500$ to the guy hitting a gut shot. Made some mistakes, had some bad beats. Anyways, my question is, playing 2/5 live cashgames, is a 4500$ downswing abnormal. Like I know it shouldn't happen often, I know there are holes in my game just like everyone else's. But is it something that just happens? Also at what point do I see my true profit. I know 350 hours does not show my true profit. Before this I was making 57/hr, I know it doesn't represent my true profit. How many hours do people generally think represent true profit?
There was a large series there this week, I wouldn't put a ton of weight into your results if you don't travel for poker and have big swings during big series. That said, given how bad the rake is at playground you've likely been running quite hot before this downswing.
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:28 PM   #19577
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Not that you're obligated to or anything, but how come we never see 10k+ samples posted ITT etc? Or have I just missed them...
My laptop got stolen with my database. Luckily I am old school and have written records. They are currently in storage across the country and one day I will update my giraffe with all of my results/hrs post BF. I posted a 2500+hr sample somewhere. DCFT saw my most recent 3k hrs and saw that I win north of 10bb/hr.

There are a handful o dudes that stomp the game over very large samples that post in llsnl. However, they do not post results itt. Prolly cuz they know they stomp and they got nuttin to prove/gain by posting their results. I can say with out a doubt they are legit and have worked exceptionally hard to achieve the results they do
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:34 PM   #19578
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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My laptop got stolen with my database. Luckily I am old school and have written records. They are currently in storage across the country and one day I will update my giraffe with all of my results/hrs post BF. I posted a 2500+hr sample somewhere. DCFT saw my most recent 3k hrs and saw that I win north of 10bb/hr.

There are a handful o dudes that stomp the game over very large samples that post in llsnl. However, they do not post results itt. Prolly cuz they know they stomp and they got nuttin to prove/gain by posting their results. I can say with out a doubt they are legit and have worked exceptionally hard to achieve the results they do
Sometimes I feel there are so many aspects of my game I could improve, I sort of get lost trying to organize which leaks to focus on first & when to move on to another area. If you don't mind sharing, what was your process for planning/organizing off-table analysis & study when you first took poker seriously?
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:36 PM   #19579
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Poker goals and challenges forum. Where people basically keep blogs of their poker progress.

It is the single biggest collective of information on 2p2 showing you to not go pro.
i'm in outside sales... i'd say 75% of the guys with the same job as me make less then 25k a year. 10% make avg money, and 15% around 80-120k with less then 5% clearing 150k a year. Is poker much different?

Also most players capable of beating the games don't have a challenge, keep a blog, or have public documents sharing there results.

Last edited by CHICKSDIGLONGBALL; 09-14-2017 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 09-14-2017, 03:03 PM   #19580
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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i'm in outside sales... i'd say 75% of the guys with the same job as me make less then 25k a year. 10% make avg money, and 15% around 80-120k with less then 5% clearing 150k a year. Is poker much different?

Also most players capable of beating the games don't have a challenge, keep a blog, or have public documents sharing there results.
The earnings / brackets would be similar but even less at the top. Im actually a bit disconnected from hs as compared to a few years ago but Id guess most live winning "pros" are $25-$50k (like 80%), 15% $50-$110k, 5% > $110k.

It should be noted though that those 5% are similar to the 5% earners in the country, where their top can be pretty high. I knew one personally who was > $200k (that i could readily believe, anyway)

People just way over estimate the true number of pros anyways. There arent many that last >2 years, from what I have seen over the past 5.

Also, the biggest problem isnt skill...its commitment. If most pros could put in 2k hours they'd be in the 15% with little to no study, imo. But they dont.

I dont blame them. Its very tough to do.
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Old 09-14-2017, 03:04 PM   #19581
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

QS - In all honesty I got exceptionally lucky. I had a bunch of gamboolin buds from my blackjack days that were elite poker players. I was fortunate enough to be able to watch a high stakes endboss play on line and sweat his action, as well as discuss strat and ideas with several dudes that were mopping up the games back in the early 2000's

I got into a life changing accident in 2006. I spent 2 years getting surgery/recovering. I started playing again late 08. The game had changed significantly (on line from 06-08). I effectively had to relearn how to play. I started playing small - and watched as many cardrunners videos as I could - play - repeat. I did sweat sessions with on line pals...and we would discuss lines etc.

I think one of the most critical things in terms of improvement is to have a circle of friends who are around your skill level and really discuss ideas/lines/etc.

Again I am very lucky in that regard I have a circle that is highly intelligent and motivated


Edit - addl info

I dont play plo. I just spent 5 days back in las vegas. I was able to do multiple sweat sessions with a pal who is highly skilled at the game. Hearing a mid stakes players thought process etc had a real impact on me. I got several beautiful nuggets that I will incorperate into my NLHE game.

Last edited by squid face; 09-14-2017 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 09-14-2017, 04:00 PM   #19582
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can confirm Squidder is a crusher at 10 bigs an hour over a 2500 hr sample. I see no reason to believe he didn't have similar results before he got into the 21st century and got him an iPhone.
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:00 PM   #19583
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Closing in on 2,500 hours of 1/2 and 1/3. I have some solid results at 2/5, but not enough to be meaningful so am filtering them out.

Giraffe is entire sample. Then screen shot of stats are entire sample, last 1,500 hours and year to date.



Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:43 PM   #19584
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Zippy's on point. Well done man.
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Old 09-14-2017, 10:50 PM   #19585
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Closing in on 2,500 hours of 1/2 and 1/3. I have some solid results at 2/5, but not enough to be meaningful so am filtering them out.

Giraffe is entire sample. Then screen shot of stats are entire sample, last 1,500 hours and year to date.



Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk


i'm fairly sure we play in the same games, very nice stats. Are the plentiful promo dollars included in those numbers?

also, i usually have orientation lock on and never thought to turn to landscape in Poker Income, and wow graphs look way better so thanks for that.

i recently surpassed the old peak so still in the running to have numbers like yours after another 1k hours



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Old 09-14-2017, 11:10 PM   #19586
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I know the rules are strict itt and im not epeening but i see graphs like zippy's get posted and Im like WTF AM I DOING WRONG then i see graphs like homers get posted and im like oh ok cool.
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:28 AM   #19587
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice graphs both of you.

@Ava the only difference really is sample size lol
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:39 AM   #19588
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Homer, I would highly suggest cutting down on your tips/meals. That 50 cents per year is seriously cutting into your profits.
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:48 AM   #19589
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I know the rules are strict itt and im not epeening but i see graphs like zippy's get posted and Im like WTF AM I DOING WRONG then i see graphs like homers get posted and im like oh ok cool.
It's good that you have your sights set high. If you are able to duplicate Homer's success at the poker table maybe Duke will stake you. Fair warning though: I hear he keeps his place a mess.
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Old 09-15-2017, 07:16 AM   #19590
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i'm fairly sure we play in the same games, very nice stats. Are the plentiful promo dollars included in those numbers?
I travel a lot, but majority of my hours are in the same area as you.

I do not lump promo $ in with regular results. Keep track of that separately.



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Old 09-15-2017, 07:21 AM   #19591
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nice graphs Homer and Zippy! keep up the good work
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:59 AM   #19592
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post

i recently surpassed the old peak so still in the running to have numbers like yours after another 1k hours


Very respectable. Nice work.

Noticed you've got a ton more sessions than I with 1k less hours. Your average session length is 3.6 and mine is 8.6. Could this impact win rate?

My image impacts my win rate. When I've got a pile of chips in front of me, the game usually gets easier during that session. And for the majority of my sessions, I've got a pile at some point regardless of if I'm really up or down that session. This is because I always get 3x max buy in from the cage and anytime I'm 25 or more less than max I pull greens out of my pocket to top off.

Auto top off helps my image by making me look like I'm winning, even if I'm not. It also makes sure I can get full value when those big pots versus bad players comes along. Worst feeling in the world is not covering the spot at your table that can't fold aces when you flop a set.

No way session length combined with winning image accounts for everything, but I I'm confident it does contribute positively to my hourly.

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Old 09-15-2017, 09:09 AM   #19593
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Very respectable. Nice work.

Noticed you've got a ton more sessions than I with 1k less hours. Your average session length is 3.6 and mine is 8.6. Could this impact win rate?

My image impacts my win rate. When I've got a pile of chips in front of me, the game usually gets easier during that session. And for the majority of my sessions, I've got a pile at some point regardless of if I'm really up or down that session. This is because I always get 3x max buy in from the cage and anytime I'm 25 or more less than max I pull greens out of my pocket to top off.

Auto top off helps my image by making me look like I'm winning, even if I'm not. It also makes sure I can get full value when those big pots versus bad players comes along. Worst feeling in the world is not covering the spot at your table that can't fold aces when you flop a set.

No way session length combined with winning image accounts for everything, but I I'm confident it does contribute positively to my hourly.

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+1 to all this
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:57 PM   #19594
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Yeah. I noticed I can get away with many more bluffs when I have 2x+ the max BI in front of me. For most recs, the thought process is "he's running hot, don't wanna get coolered."
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Old 09-15-2017, 02:05 PM   #19595
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It is really fascinating how much action you get when you have a losing image and vice versa
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Old 09-15-2017, 02:18 PM   #19596
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Congrats to QS, Zippy's and Homer's giraffes; especially Zippy's as this is one of the larger sample size ones we've seen posted on here for the kiddie table stakes (nice results, imo).

G417hoursawayfrompostinga4Khour1/3NLgiraffe,unlessIgobustofirstG
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Old 09-15-2017, 09:40 PM   #19597
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post


Edit - addl info

I dont play plo. I just spent 5 days back in las vegas. I was able to do multiple sweat sessions with a pal who is highly skilled at the game. Hearing a mid stakes players thought process etc had a real impact on me. I got several beautiful nuggets that I will incorperate into my NLHE game.
My background in HUNL helped my live NL game more then anything.. PLO a close second.
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Old 09-16-2017, 01:00 AM   #19598
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I'm curious but does anyone know of any poker players that strictly play say 1/3nl mostly and don't move up to 2/5nl because of the skill level?


I remember years ago when i was in vegas for a few months, i played most 1/3nl which had a 500 max buyin. My winrate i believe was something like 24/hr which is 8bb/hr. I was considered a reg there as most of the dealers seen me play a lot etc.


I know people say that many players who play 2/5nl will play 5/10nl if the game is good. But if not, then they would just play their usual 2/5nl etc. However like i read many times already, it seems 10bb/hr is pretty much the highest one i could make but i believe some people say crushers could hit 15bb/hr. Is that true? So if you put a 10/20nl top reg in a 2/5nl game, his winrate would probably be like 15bb/hr?


Also back to my original question. When i played 1/3nl many years ago back in vegas, i rarely was at a table where i felt i was outclassed. There were definitely times that i recalled this. I recalled once at the wynn and it was a 1/3 game and there were a few guys who play 5/10nl playing because they were waiting for their 5/10 seat etc. I easily was probably one of the worst player at that table because i think only 1 or 2 players were bad. The thing was back then i recalled there were lot of fishy players back at the table at the 1/3nl in vegas mostly.


So if thats the case, wouldn't it make for many 2/5nl players who say have a 5-6bb/hr winrate of 25-30/hr to play 1/3nl if they could make 8bb-10bb where the skill level is definitely a bit noticeable. Its like how some ppl mention it isn't a good idea to play 5/10nl where the winrate is 6bb and you have a much tougher game and more variance than playing their standard 2/5nl game where their winrate is say 8bb/hr.


Also im curious but to those people who play poker in vegas at the 1/3 and 2/5 and maybe even the 1/2 level, do you notice a huge skill difference from say 2012 to now? Are most 1/3 games in vegas pretty bad nowadays? I mean how many bad players are there really anymore that play poker? Its been a while since i played any live poker but from what i read online, it seems like 1/2 the table are regs at least in 2/5 and probably even so at 1/3?
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Old 09-16-2017, 02:18 AM   #19599
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That's a lot of questions to respond to, but keep in mind in many poker rooms the rake structure is the same dollar amount for 1/2 and 2/5, which means 2/5 is much more rake efficient.

Say you have two identically difficult 1/2 and 2/5 tables and pretend the 2/5 plays *exactly* twice as big so all game stats are doubled and your observed winrate at the 1/2 table is $20/hr.

$20/hr at 1/2 means your "true" winrate is $30/hr, but you lose $10/hr to rake. Now say you bump it up to 2/5 and since it's evenly skilled and plays exactly twice as big, your "true" winrate of $30/hr doubles to $60/hr, you lose $10/hr to rake and now your observed winrate is $50/hr.

This is obviously under unrealistic assumptions, but I hope it illustrates how the lower rake (in proportion to winrate) at 2/5 is very beneficial to your bottom line.

In addition, but less important: You can probably play more hands and create more value when you aren't so oppressed by rake.

Imagine a 2/5 game with $0/hand rake. You can play X% of hands profitably.
Imagine a 2/5 game with $5/hand rake. You can play Y% of hands profitably.
Imagine a 2/5 game with $100/hand rake. You can play Z% of hands profitably.

X > Y >>>>> ... >>>>> Z
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Old 09-16-2017, 03:37 AM   #19600
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
I'm curious but does anyone know of any poker players that strictly play say 1/3nl mostly and don't move up to 2/5nl because of the skill level?
Generally, if you're going to be able to beat 1/3, you're going to do reasonably well at 2/5... at least to the point where the aforementioned rake factor is enough of an incentive to play it even if your WR is slightly lower.

Quote:
I know people say that many players who play 2/5nl will play 5/10nl if the game is good. But if not, then they would just play their usual 2/5nl etc.
The jump from 2/5 to 5/10 is quite different from the 1/3 --> 2/5 jump. For a lot of rooms, 5/T doesn't get up all that often and so they'll play it when it runs. But if there's just 1 table of 5/10 running and it's full of the best 2/5 players, it's definitely NOT a good game to sit at. Basically your hourly will be better sitting at 2/5 which should have a stead stream of drunks coming in. If there's a whale or some bad players on the 5/10, then you might want to consider that game.

For me, I only have the option of 2/5 and 5/5 at my casino. I choose to play the 2/5 because the 5/5 is the same reg-heavy game with very few fish sitting it. The fish rego to 2/5 and come play with me to punt off money. If a whale sits the 5/5, I might see if I can swap but otherwise there's not much point.

Quote:
However like i read many times already, it seems 10bb/hr is pretty much the highest one i could make but i believe some people say crushers could hit 15bb/hr. Is that true? So if you put a 10/20nl top reg in a 2/5nl game, his winrate would probably be like 15bb/hr?
Doesn't work that way. For a couple of reasons. Firstly, there's a ceiling of how winning you can be in a game... after a while, rake will cap how much you can win in a game. Also, a 10/20 reg is playing very very different poker to what would be optimal in a 2/5 game. I believe a 10/20 reg may struggle to adjust down to the level of play found in a 2/5 whereas the top 2/5 regs know the nuances of the population, they know all the regs, and they know the meta.

Quote:
So if thats the case, wouldn't it make for many 2/5nl players who say have a 5-6bb/hr winrate of 25-30/hr to play 1/3nl if they could make 8bb-10bb where the skill level is definitely a bit noticeable.
Sure, and it comes down to looking at the table and figuring out what game is going to be more profitable. Usually, however, you can find a 2/5 which is going to be fairly easy to the point you'll struggle winning more at a 1/3. Also variance is a factor and if you're on a super short bankroll maybe you'd prefer coasting at the 1/3. Or you could even do **** like 1/3 during daynit hours and then 2/5 at 1am on a Sat etc.
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