Just finished my first month of playing live and logging it. I logged 60 hours, generally happy with my results. Have a few leaks I need to work on




The game I go to starts at 730, and doesnt run until too late so I usually log 3 hour sessions, With long sessions I lose focus. But since the games run quick there is a much more aggressive loose style of play where 4x opens usually get a few callers. The variance seems higher since people aren't able to put the same amount of hours in.
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It wasn't continuous (obviously) as there were some wins in there too. But zoomed out peak to trough was about $5k over maybe 3 months. Mostly $300 cap $1/2. Obviously not *all* of that is entirely just run-bad and there are mistakes in there too. Getting clobbered repeatedly for weeks at a time messes with anyone's head, and I'd say that it's fair to include the results of some tilt when discussing downswings, especially at these levels.

I'll have to look back as I think there may have been some PLO in there, which isn't a fair game to include in the discussion. I do know I lost 2 giant $1k+ pots where I got it in with boats and lost to runner runner or a 1 outer.

But like I said, a $1k swing in either direction is *very* easy, and so is getting two of them quickly.

Yikes! Would love to see this giraffe!

Gwouldimaginemostpeoplewouldgiveupatthatpoint,tbhG

Lolz.

G4x,or"limp"asitisknowninmy1/3NLgameG

10k downswing in 1/3 is rare because so few people have access to that amount of money in 1/3.

Even in this forum, I think most people drop out of the game before they reach 20 BI downswing, let alone 30.

Agree, as I spent my winnings sparingly before the DS and it was all in cash. Probably for the worst as I likely would have taken a break instead of reloading at the ATM over and over.

I would guess most lifetime losers in my 1/3 NL game are stuck well over 10K, but that's just a guess.

I can't imagine a winning player sticking with the game after experiencing a 33 BI downswing, you'd think that would just be too crushing for any soul to handle. A giraffe of this with a rebound would be *amazing*, imo.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG

Well, lifetime losers don't track, and players who do try to track will probably stop tracking after they reach around 10 BI losses.

Why would you keep showing up to the casino if you're obviously losing money?

Agreed. Man, how do those people fool themselves?

ETA: When I first started playing poker in a casino, I started with 2/4 Limit. I had read a couple of books and thought I was going to go in and simply crush the game (lolz @ crushing a game that is arguable unbeatable due to rake). Anyhoo, life nit me plays my first 41 sessions / 137 hours and is stuck $1201. I felt like *such* a degen. I'm not exactly sure what the magic number was, maybe $2K, but a decent chance if I hit that I may have given up on poker.

Gguessit'sthesameasslotmachineplayers,etc.G

This is not a question casino owners lie awake at night worrying about

I'm trying to get a grasp on the amount of money that has come off the table just to the casino itself in my room.

Since my 1/3 NL game started in 2010, I've put in ~3000 hours. So just at my table alone, if you take a conservative estimate of $180/hr off the table (rake + tips, maybe BBJ), that's $540,000. And that's just my once/week table where I'm only at it 8 hours a day (on average). So multiple that by 7 = $3,780,000. Now let's give an *extremely* conservative estimate and say there was a second table running all that time, so now = $7,560,000. And that's not assuming any other tables, and assuming the table is only running when I'm there (lolz, insert game-built-around-GG joke here), plus assuming no one has won any money. Assume a 500 person player pool (that number out of my ass), and you get a average debt of ~$15K. And that's the *incredibly conservative* estimate.

GcripesG

Addiction.

I ran some numbers several months back. There are some pretty big losers that frequent these games to sustain winners of the game.

If I recall correctly, there would be multiple -10bb/hr losers at each table.

Can confirm.

Now realize what has to be lost to sustain a mid/high stakes scene

I'd guess that in smaller markets that it only would take a few people to drop out to kill it altogether?

Ginourmarket1/3NListhebiggame,lolzG

Not even a tiny percentage of what has to be lost by table games players to sustain a casino, but they keep playing and keep losing.

My first 3k downswing at 1/2 put me on life tilt

Of course it wasn't bad luck it was awful play. Same can be said of all my significant downswings actually. Not that I doubt such a downswing is possible, and indeed it's not too hard to imagine, but there is probably something wrong with you if you don't look at yourself at some point before getting 30BI in the hole.

I have witnessed multiple people who cannot possibly be lifetime winners dutifully tracking on an app. It does not take a lot of fudging to create a happy giraffe.

Don't think about it. It will just hurt your head. It does seem there is no way poker should survive and yet there really is that much money to burn.

You've probably noticed how the games change seasonally. You might notice a decline around Christmas. Not because people are spending time with their families, that wouldn't stop a degen. Because they spent money on gifts and don't have any left to gamble.

You might notice the casinos are busier every other weekend (after payday)

THIS. I had a really long post but it likely would have gotten the boot, so I'll just say again, THIS.

Yup. So many sessions don't get recorded by pseudo-serious players because "that doesn't reflect how I really play."

This is basically what happens in home games in most markets, for bigger not friendly games. There are a handful of fish who the game run around. If they're not playing, the game doesn't run. Where I live, these games are primarily 2/5 PLO, but run up to 10/25. Obviously a fish in this game could lose $20-30,000 in a night. That's juicy. No one wants to play high stakes PLO with ~5 pros generally, but put in a guy who might drop $20k even at 2/5 in a night? They sign up.

DK, here it's seasonal in that games are worse during the Summer (it's nice out, people have summer homes) and great in fall/winter due to lolCanada weather.

Exactly. When I first started playing, if I had a terrible beat, or if I ultra tilted off a few buy-ins, it was sooooo tempting to just pretend that night didn't happen. But luckily I am cursed with OCD and would never be able to sleep at night knowing my Excel sheet wasn't accurate. I have had poker acquaintances tho that were certainly "fair weather trackers"

It's really interesting to think about...how much we lie to ourselves.

.......

Brag: my gf's granpparents recently took us to the casino and to be a hot shot ballah poker player I played blind for 3 hours with my gf at the 1/2 table (lol, it's sentences like that that really hit you hard with self reflection when you're about to turn 30)

Beat: lost $400.

Variance: recorded in Excel, right next to all of my other variance.

I've known several guys who have convinced themselves they're winner by chasing their losses in the pits. If they win they're a great poker player. If they lose then get unstuck taking baccarat flips or whatever they just don't count it. If they bust in the pits they convince themselves they're winning poker players with a pit addiction.

Probably shouldn't post that because they're awesome players for the poker games.

What separates pros from recreational or even semi-serious players is the ability to remain indifferent to variance. As a mostly online player having recently taken an interest in LLSNL, it seems as though a lot of people have pretty serious mental game issues if what some of the stuff Avaritia etc are saying is true.

Fact is nobody (very few on 2p2) have meaningful live sample sizes. I was very cocky over my first 1000 hours and have seen how ridiculous the script can be flipped over the next 1200 hours and counting. I'm a much better player now then I was in 2015 but the results wouldn't indicate it. Who knows what a "meaningful" sample size is. I am now convinced you could go 5000-10,000 hours of live poker and still be running meaningfully above or below EV (at least 1 standard deviation).