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Old 10-14-2016, 11:22 AM   #16601
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
Here's (almost) 1k hours since I started playing regularly again (almost) a year ago, 10/19/15. Dunno what to glean from it but at least I made 5 figs:







Congrats!

Is that some sick 5.5K downswing in what I'm assuming is 1/2NL? Gross!

ETA: Also looks like a 9K upswing in like 50 hours, cripes! Is this 100bb BI max at 1/2 NL? If so, my guess is you play a highly volatile style, but that's just a guess based on this giraffe. Although the last 150 hours look a little more reasonable.

ETA: Ha, just realized those are sessions at the bottom, not hours. Still, a 5.5K downswing at 1/2 NL is massive, as is a 9K upswing over 150 hours.

Ggoodluck!G

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Old 10-14-2016, 11:52 AM   #16602
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Originally Posted by nicname View Post
Very nice. Mostly 1/2 (1/1)?



Looks like you were really crushing until the downswing. What happened there? Great recovery tho!


Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Congrats!

Is that some sick 5.5K downswing in what I'm assuming is 1/2NL? Gross!

ETA: Also looks like a 9K upswing in like 50 hours, cripes! Is this 100bb BI max at 1/2 NL? If so, my guess is you play a highly volatile style, but that's just a guess based on this giraffe.

Ggoodluck!G


So yeah it's about 900 hours of 1/2 and 40 hours of 1/3 (-800). IIRC the last 4 1/3 sessions have ended with me getting rivered for a $700+ pot. HS guys talk about swing pots when shottaking and those are mine for the time being.

The 1/2 is 150bb max but my typical buyin strat is start with 110bb and 50bb in pocket, and then plop the 50bb on after I play a couple hands (assuming I don't win those hands).

Downswing sucked, but as mentioned the preceding upswing was pretty sick.

Downswing was exacerbated by poor play/lifetilt in addition to running colder, I am pretty sure I'd be at 10bb/hr still if I could find the fold button correctly more often.

I do play a volatile style because my poker background is all SNG/MTTSNG/MTT, never played cash online. Don't believe I've ever open limped in these 1k hours, and I'm not a habitual utg straddler but I do put it on more often than a lot of players.

Probably the worst mistake I made is not taking shots at 2/5 towards the top of that peak. Cash bankroll peaked around $7k and at that point I kinda lost my seriousness about 1/2 and spewed badly. Obviously the downswing would have been extra brutal at 2/5 but I believe the DS was mostly my fault not the deck, so results would have been interesting. Maybe should have made 1/3 my primary game around then but I dislike Shoe Baltimore and that's the only local 1/3 game.
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Old 10-14-2016, 12:52 PM   #16603
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I've had a $5k downswing at $1/2. It's almost never completely just run-bad as you know, but it doesn't take many of those "swing pots" to make it deep. -$300 vs +$600 in a big multi-way pot can make or break your month/week.

$1k drops are pretty common just in a handful of hours too. But you'll also have a +$1k wins over the course of a single weekend. When I squint at my graph the noise in session to session results is pretty close to a $1k width.

My experience as a cash player watching tournament players sit at the table is that the good ones can win a lot, the marginal/poor ones are absolutely *awful*, and they all have a lot more swingyness to their games.

I wouldn't really worry about the difference between $1/2 and $1/3 too much. If the $1/2 game is a better room and decent action, your WR should be pretty close or maybe even better than a marginal $1/3 game. What I've seen is that the open raises and stack sizes are often similar enough that they play effectively the same.
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:27 PM   #16604
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I've had a $5k downswing at $1/2. It's almost never completely just run-bad as you know, but it doesn't take many of those "swing pots" to make it deep. -$300 vs +$600 in a big multi-way pot can make or break your month/week.

$1k drops are pretty common just in a handful of hours too. But you'll also have a +$1k wins over the course of a single weekend. When I squint at my graph the noise in session to session results is pretty close to a $1k width.

My experience as a cash player watching tournament players sit at the table is that the good ones can win a lot, the marginal/poor ones are absolutely *awful*, and they all have a lot more swingyness to their games.

I wouldn't really worry about the difference between $1/2 and $1/3 too much. If the $1/2 game is a better room and decent action, your WR should be pretty close or maybe even better than a marginal $1/3 game. What I've seen is that the open raises and stack sizes are often similar enough that they play effectively the same.


Jeez a 25buyin downswing is pretty serious. Im not saying it is impossible, but a downswing that big likely could indicate mistakes/tilt or other factors. Unless the 1/2 game you guys are playing in is 200bb or table stakes.
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Old 10-16-2016, 07:07 PM   #16605
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Jeez a 25buyin downswing is pretty serious. Im not saying it is impossible, but a downswing that big likely could indicate mistakes/tilt or other factors. Unless the 1/2 game you guys are playing in is 200bb or table stakes.
ive had a 10k downswing at 1/3. It happens.
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Old 10-16-2016, 07:16 PM   #16606
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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Jeez a 25buyin downswing is pretty serious. Im not saying it is impossible, but a downswing that big likely could indicate mistakes/tilt or other factors. Unless the 1/2 game you guys are playing in is 200bb or table stakes.


yeah I acknowledged a lot of it was due to poor play caused by non-poker lifetilt in my initial reply. Not that I didn't have some KK vs. AA and villains making their flushes in that stretch but certainly not for -2500bb
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Old 10-17-2016, 10:56 AM   #16607
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Just finished my first month of playing live and logging it. I logged 60 hours, generally happy with my results. Have a few leaks I need to work on




The game I go to starts at 730, and doesnt run until too late so I usually log 3 hour sessions, With long sessions I lose focus. But since the games run quick there is a much more aggressive loose style of play where 4x opens usually get a few callers. The variance seems higher since people aren't able to put the same amount of hours in.
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Old 10-17-2016, 11:58 AM   #16608
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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Jeez a 25buyin downswing is pretty serious. Im not saying it is impossible, but a downswing that big likely could indicate mistakes/tilt or other factors. Unless the 1/2 game you guys are playing in is 200bb or table stakes.
It wasn't continuous (obviously) as there were some wins in there too. But zoomed out peak to trough was about $5k over maybe 3 months. Mostly $300 cap $1/2. Obviously not *all* of that is entirely just run-bad and there are mistakes in there too. Getting clobbered repeatedly for weeks at a time messes with anyone's head, and I'd say that it's fair to include the results of some tilt when discussing downswings, especially at these levels.

I'll have to look back as I think there may have been some PLO in there, which isn't a fair game to include in the discussion. I do know I lost 2 giant $1k+ pots where I got it in with boats and lost to runner runner or a 1 outer.

But like I said, a $1k swing in either direction is *very* easy, and so is getting two of them quickly.
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:05 PM   #16609
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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
ive had a 10k downswing at 1/3. It happens.
Yikes! Would love to see this giraffe!

Gwouldimaginemostpeoplewouldgiveupatthatpoint,tbhG
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:07 PM   #16610
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Originally Posted by ADustedEwok View Post
loose style of play where 4x opens usually get a few callers.
Lolz.

G4x,or"limp"asitisknowninmy1/3NLgameG
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:11 PM   #16611
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10k downswing in 1/3 is rare because so few people have access to that amount of money in 1/3.

Even in this forum, I think most people drop out of the game before they reach 20 BI downswing, let alone 30.
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:14 PM   #16612
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10k downswing in 1/3 is rare because so few people have access to that amount of money in 1/3.

Even in this forum, I think most people drop out of the game before they reach 20 BI downswing, let alone 30.


Agree, as I spent my winnings sparingly before the DS and it was all in cash. Probably for the worst as I likely would have taken a break instead of reloading at the ATM over and over.
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:15 PM   #16613
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10k downswing in 1/3 is rare because so few people have access to that amount of money in 1/3.

Even in this forum, I think most people drop out of the game before they reach 20 BI downswing, let alone 30.
I would guess most lifetime losers in my 1/3 NL game are stuck well over 10K, but that's just a guess.

I can't imagine a winning player sticking with the game after experiencing a 33 BI downswing, you'd think that would just be too crushing for any soul to handle. A giraffe of this with a rebound would be *amazing*, imo.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:21 PM   #16614
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Well, lifetime losers don't track, and players who do try to track will probably stop tracking after they reach around 10 BI losses.

Why would you keep showing up to the casino if you're obviously losing money?
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:23 PM   #16615
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Agreed. Man, how do those people fool themselves?

ETA: When I first started playing poker in a casino, I started with 2/4 Limit. I had read a couple of books and thought I was going to go in and simply crush the game (lolz @ crushing a game that is arguable unbeatable due to rake). Anyhoo, life nit me plays my first 41 sessions / 137 hours and is stuck $1201. I felt like *such* a degen. I'm not exactly sure what the magic number was, maybe $2K, but a decent chance if I hit that I may have given up on poker.

Gguessit'sthesameasslotmachineplayers,etc.G

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Old 10-17-2016, 12:34 PM   #16616
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Why would you keep showing up to the casino if you're obviously losing money?
This is not a question casino owners lie awake at night worrying about
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:40 PM   #16617
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I'm trying to get a grasp on the amount of money that has come off the table just to the casino itself in my room.

Since my 1/3 NL game started in 2010, I've put in ~3000 hours. So just at my table alone, if you take a conservative estimate of $180/hr off the table (rake + tips, maybe BBJ), that's $540,000. And that's just my once/week table where I'm only at it 8 hours a day (on average). So multiple that by 7 = $3,780,000. Now let's give an *extremely* conservative estimate and say there was a second table running all that time, so now = $7,560,000. And that's not assuming any other tables, and assuming the table is only running when I'm there (lolz, insert game-built-around-GG joke here), plus assuming no one has won any money. Assume a 500 person player pool (that number out of my ass), and you get a average debt of ~$15K. And that's the *incredibly conservative* estimate.

GcripesG
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Old 10-17-2016, 01:05 PM   #16618
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Well, lifetime losers don't track, and players who do try to track will probably stop tracking after they reach around 10 BI losses.

Why would you keep showing up to the casino if you're obviously losing money?
Addiction.
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Old 10-17-2016, 01:13 PM   #16619
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm trying to get a grasp on the amount of money that has come off the table just to the casino itself in my room.

Since my 1/3 NL game started in 2010, I've put in ~3000 hours. So just at my table alone, if you take a conservative estimate of $180/hr off the table (rake + tips, maybe BBJ), that's $540,000. And that's just my once/week table where I'm only at it 8 hours a day (on average). So multiple that by 7 = $3,780,000. Now let's give an *extremely* conservative estimate and say there was a second table running all that time, so now = $7,560,000. And that's not assuming any other tables, and assuming the table is only running when I'm there (lolz, insert game-built-around-GG joke here), plus assuming no one has won any money. Assume a 500 person player pool (that number out of my ass), and you get a average debt of ~$15K. And that's the *incredibly conservative* estimate.

GcripesG
I ran some numbers several months back. There are some pretty big losers that frequent these games to sustain winners of the game.

If I recall correctly, there would be multiple -10bb/hr losers at each table.
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Old 10-17-2016, 01:19 PM   #16620
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If I recall correctly, there would be multiple -10bb/hr losers at each table.
Can confirm.
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Old 10-17-2016, 02:51 PM   #16621
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Now realize what has to be lost to sustain a mid/high stakes scene Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
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Old 10-17-2016, 03:41 PM   #16622
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Now realize what has to be lost to sustain a mid/high stakes scene Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I'd guess that in smaller markets that it only would take a few people to drop out to kill it altogether?

Ginourmarket1/3NListhebiggame,lolzG
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Old 10-17-2016, 05:20 PM   #16623
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Now realize what has to be lost to sustain a mid/high stakes scene Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Not even a tiny percentage of what has to be lost by table games players to sustain a casino, but they keep playing and keep losing.
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Old 10-17-2016, 06:51 PM   #16624
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
10k downswing in 1/3 is rare because so few people have access to that amount of money in 1/3.

Even in this forum, I think most people drop out of the game before they reach 20 BI downswing, let alone 30.
My first 3k downswing at 1/2 put me on life tilt

Of course it wasn't bad luck it was awful play. Same can be said of all my significant downswings actually. Not that I doubt such a downswing is possible, and indeed it's not too hard to imagine, but there is probably something wrong with you if you don't look at yourself at some point before getting 30BI in the hole.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Well, lifetime losers don't track, and players who do try to track will probably stop tracking after they reach around 10 BI losses.

Why would you keep showing up to the casino if you're obviously losing money?
I have witnessed multiple people who cannot possibly be lifetime winners dutifully tracking on an app. It does not take a lot of fudging to create a happy giraffe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm trying to get a grasp on the amount of money that has come off the table just to the casino itself in my room.

Since my 1/3 NL game started in 2010, I've put in ~3000 hours. So just at my table alone, if you take a conservative estimate of $180/hr off the table (rake + tips, maybe BBJ), that's $540,000. And that's just my once/week table where I'm only at it 8 hours a day (on average). So multiple that by 7 = $3,780,000. Now let's give an *extremely* conservative estimate and say there was a second table running all that time, so now = $7,560,000. And that's not assuming any other tables, and assuming the table is only running when I'm there (lolz, insert game-built-around-GG joke here), plus assuming no one has won any money. Assume a 500 person player pool (that number out of my ass), and you get a average debt of ~$15K. And that's the *incredibly conservative* estimate.

GcripesG
Don't think about it. It will just hurt your head. It does seem there is no way poker should survive and yet there really is that much money to burn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'd guess that in smaller markets that it only would take a few people to drop out to kill it altogether?

Ginourmarket1/3NListhebiggame,lolzG
You've probably noticed how the games change seasonally. You might notice a decline around Christmas. Not because people are spending time with their families, that wouldn't stop a degen. Because they spent money on gifts and don't have any left to gamble.

You might notice the casinos are busier every other weekend (after payday)
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Old 10-17-2016, 07:19 PM   #16625
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It does not take a lot of fudging to create a happy giraffe.
THIS. I had a really long post but it likely would have gotten the boot, so I'll just say again, THIS.
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