I ran at 14bb/hr in WSOP tour and other tournament style 2 5 / 5 5 games and 5bb/hr in pro/reg infested twice a week 2 5 games. Not realizing 10bb/hr was sustainable in better locals, I went to B school (a couple winning pro friends who knew my charts chided me).

It's a whole lot easier to win $$ when it's being given away. My local 2 5 included learning to beat/crush a few semi-pros who had Aggro styles and low Vol when I wasn't playing, and fading a couple serious studs who I knew were and are better players (my response to them was to force a level fest and stand my friggin ground w weird OOP lines when needed--creative OOP play vs bfriday refugees so they don't steal your winrate is a rough way to make 5bb/hr). I have deep respect for game selection--and a low-to-midstakes NL winner w no kids should consider following the circuit.


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5/10 runs in most of the LA cards rooms around the clock.

I hit a bad beat, should I include it in my winrate?

No. I don't. If I did I'd look like I am just crushing souls every time I get within 10 miles of a casino. I'm not. Yet.


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This comes up often. Record it as a separate game.

It'll skew your winrate, but it still impacts your overall results. Filter it in/out as needed.

I am just going to quote someone else who knows the LA scene somewhat well despite him not playing NLHE anymore. This is a response to a question posed to him regarding what he thinks LA 5/10 winrates are:

"...a really good player (not the best) can still realistically make 150k+ playing mid/hi 5-10 (some 20) level but you need to work a little. just sitting at commerce 5-10nl and expecting 150k income isnt gonna happen anymore unless you are one of the top 2 or 3 players in that pool putting in full time+ hours nights and weekends. talking about hourly rates is sort of worthless because you can have a high hourly if you only work peak hours but your yearly will be low because you dont get in the hours. Friday and Saturday nights theres still $150/hr games at 5-10level for the best players. weekday days are prob at the $50/hr level.

In the current poker climate I think anyone can make more in the real world than they can from poker. poker shrunk faster than the overall economy and is recovering much slower (if at all). you need to love something about the poker lifestyle to cut off ties to the real world and do it full time because its a bad decision if youre doing it for the money."

As far as 5/10 NL+ pros who live in LA, there are probably over 150+. So I am pretty sure that the number of 5/10 NL+ pros living in the west coast and east coast together is more. than 300+.

xpost from my Clueless Noob thread:





First 1000 hours: $28.94/hour (9.65 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Second 1000 hours: $27.72/hour (9.24 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Third 1000 hours: $13.74/hour (4.58 bb/hour, huh, poker is hard?)

GitiswhatitisG

tyty for sharing GG.

October is off to a ****ty start so far. Three sessions dropping stacks from ahead with one win. Meh. Haven't been able to get any volume or prime time sessions due to work.

Lots of fun following a mess of a September where I dropped $1k+ in < 4hrs, TWICE (due partially to PLO/RxR). Guess I should be happy it didn't go worse.

Sep '16 $ -371 over 96.7 96.7 hours --> -3.84 $/hr
Oct '16 $ -300 over 6.7 hours --> -45.00 $/hr

I'd consider myself a young hotshot at 29. Anyone who can beat poker can probably learn how to be a computer programmer and make $40/hour + life insurance, or $75/hour consulting. Real job >>>>> 2/5 in terms of hourly and life prospects.

Sometimes the regs at my casino ask me when I'm quitting my job, I just laugh.

Yup. And you can still play $2/5 on the weekends for fun without needing to worry about your roll.

No problem.

Bip, you're the SD king; anything to make / conclude of my SD?

GcluelessingeneralG

I'm a 30yo engineer, I understand where you are coming from. I just don't see someone that gives up on poker so easily just because they had to move down becoming a great programmer.

Nice chart GG. I can tell your advice is always solid but nice to see I'm not mistaken.

I've been listening so hopefully I'll be posting winning results over a decent sample in the years to come.

If you're listening to advice based on results, then you should have definitely listened to me from mid 2012 - mid 2014, and then probably stopped listening.

GlolzG

Looks like ~$172 / hr. (~57 bb/ hr)

So after 3000 hrs, your 95% confidence results are +/- $18,800 = +/- ~$6/hr

GG - if the game is still similar over the next 1000hrs, you can expect between $12/hr and $35/hr over that 1k hrs (95% of cases)

Ha, thanks. The $12/hr end of the scale seems doable; $35/hr, not so much.

And although I'm assuming I have a quite nitty SD (???), I had to laugh at the extents. Doesn't seem much different to me that saying there's a 95% chance I'll win between $0/hr and $100/hr, lolz.

ETA: Course, biggest piece of info was "if the game is still similar over the next 1000 hours"...

GhopingtolowermyexpectationstozeroG

I don't think the 1/2 and 1/3 games of the world change much year-to-year.

*except in the situation you described where the room/player pool is collapsing.

Just thinking of my room, 1/3 runs 7 days a week with a peek of 5+ tables on busy nights... 1k hour sample A is going to be damn near 1k hour sample B in terms of game conditions. I say that using the logic: a single player can't make a dent/impact in the system (by playing or not playing).. thus it is governed by much greater macro variables (like the economy, legality, television boom.. LLSNL poker has really been pretty static the last 4~5 year IMO)

Yeah, I guess it's just really market dependent. I actually thought our room was going to die in 2015 (often would only have a single table going), but since a neighbouring room has recently closed it has seemed to have bounced back fairly nicely (plus gotten some fresh blood in the game). Still, we'll see how long it lasts; the trend around here isn't great.

GcluelesstrendnoobG

In 1453 hours of $1/2, my SD is $263.68/hour and $454.94/session. Hourly = $41.82.

In 813 hours of $2/5, SD is $455.82/hour and $775.07/session. Hourly = $61.74.

Not sure what to make of those numbers other than I play tighter at $2/5 than $1/2. $2/5 sessions also average 40 min shorter than $1/2, mostly due to games breaking early.

Game isn't going to grow, but the end doesn't seem to be near either.

After all, there really isn't much option for most people to socialize.

1/2 hourly win rate over not small sample..

I am in total jaw dropping awe....



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Well considering you started many years ago, decent chance it's not just variance and that poker is harder now. :/

Heh, I know it's a typo but Daytona had a great 5/5 back in the day. It was a great stepping stone for me to be able to play that game.

I don't doubt that vegas blows compared to Fl, but I'll broken record myself one more time, hs games are dying at a pretty alarming rate in Fl. I know you and squid both had great experiences in your travels through this glorious state, but I'm telling you, it's nothing compared to 5 years ago.

Really only guaranteed 5/10 games are at Isle. Yea HR can get one going, yea PBKC has a good one over the winter, etc. Just a few years ago though there were prolly 15+ 5/10s going on in the state on a Friday night.

I think this has a true impact on WR, more so than most realize. I know like 80% of my wr is (was?!?) directly linked to game selection.