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Old 10-10-2016, 12:44 PM   #16526
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
I played live poker back in 2012 for a few months back in vegas. However, i mostly played 1/3nl. I believe my win rate was around 24/hr or so and this was about 410 hours total in around a 2.5 month span. I played lot of poker during this time. However, poker in vegas such as low stakes as in 1/3nl probably is a bit tougher than it was around 2012? I still recalled back then when i was there, i was pretty shocked that there wasn't even much 2/5 games that ran back then. However when i was there, it was basically low season in vegas for poker so thats why.
I was just in Vegas at the end of August. Games were slow, but that's August in Vegas according to the locals I chatted with. I'd been there in August 2 years ago and the game conditions were pretty much the same. When I've been there in late Oct or Feb it's been significantly busier. Game hasn't really gotten any harder since 2010 or so, just a little less traffic.

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I'm from NY originally. What would probably be the best option to play live poker? I use to play at borgata and taj many years ago but this was 1/2nl just playing it for fun etc. The other thing is at borgata, back then i would be able to get 2 free rooms a night and at taj mahal as well so i get comped rooms. However, for those of you that play full time live, i assume all of you drive to the casino etc? I assume no one has an apartment that is either very close walking distance or just a bus ride away? I know in the east coast, the best poker rooms are borgata, parx and maryland live right?

<snip housing>
Well the Taj closes today, so that's out.

I've heard good things about Foxwoods. Parx is apparently good. Mt Airy is closeish to the City if you can get to 80 and shoot out. (Closer than AC for sure).

I know some people here in MI that play for all/most of their income. They drive.

You should probably go ask in the local community threads for each place you're considering to find out what the locals do.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
As for winrates, I haven't been to a casino in a while. But are the top regs at 2/5 making around 50/hr? <snip> I read someone here mentioned he had 50 buyin downswing at 2/5nl and was considered solid player by others. I assume this is not normal and very rare? I'm assuming 10 buyin downswing would be very standard?


A "good" winrate is typically 10bb/hr, crushing may be as high as 20bb/hr.

I'd expect 2 BI swings easily at any given point. For longer swings refer to the previous couple of pages of discussion about standard deviations and variance.

I've had 10-15 BI downswings at $1/2. 50 seems insane, but possible if you're tilting on the way down I guess.

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Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
The other thing is when i look at pokerbravolive, is there a reason why most poker rooms can't even get 5/10nl going? <snip>
I always hear people say vegas is the worst place to play poker. Is this true now? I know it was a few year ago when few people mentioned this.
There's no market for it. $2/5 plays big enough most days once it gets rolling.

Meh, maybe. I think the games are juicier in some other markets. Plus in a place like Florida you've got the ocean and no state income tax.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
I look at borgata... i rarely see a 5/10nl that runs on the weekdays. I mean how can the premier poker room on the east coast not have 5/10nl running on a weekday even at night?<snip more rambling>
Again, there's just no market for the game. The high stakes players are either content with deep $2/5, or are playing PLO now. OR they're in home games.

How much money do you really think is getting thrown around at poker tables during the week?

I really doubt there are as many 5/T pros as you think there are. And even if there were, there aren't the rec players to support it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
Also for winrates, what is considered a goodrate at 1/3nl, 2/5nl and 5/10nl nowadays? <jesus more snipping> And for the people who play full time, would it be right for me to make an estimate that solid regs but not elite regs are making around this a year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post



1/3nl $20,000-$40,000

2/5nl $30,000-$60,000

5/10nl $40,000- $70,000
10 bb/hr is good, 20bb/hr is pretty much crushing it. Extrapolate from there. Full time work at 40 hours a week is about 2000hr/yr, so $60k for $1/3 at 10bb/hr if you can maintain that. I'd go about half that to be realistic.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:58 PM   #16527
aross76
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Ive got several thousand hours in vegas games and am well over 1k hours in florida games. I can state for a fact that they play VERY VERY differently.
Hey squid, would would mind exploring this idea a little more.
what specific types of differences have you noticed between LV & FLA?
Where are they splashier? Where are they tighter pre? Which place has more mouthbreathers? is one definitely better than the other or are they comparable in winrates just play differently?

I play mostly in Vegas with decent success and I've heard about FLA games being really good, but I have no experience in FLA games
thanks in advance
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:59 PM   #16528
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

PaulyJames,

Lotsa questions in there, many of which don't have much to do with Winrates, or even strategy and might go better in the Live Casino Poker forum.

Cliffs:

Winrate: 10BBs/hr is generally the ceiling for most LLSNL players at most stakes/locations over the long term. There are a few statistical outliers doing better than that over a large sample, but not many.

Volatility: Session volatility varies wildly based on session length, stack sizes, game conditions, player style, etc. There are a few of us ITT with SDev in the 50-60BBs/hr, but most are closer to 100BB/hr, with at least one pro reporting 120BB/hr.

Places to live/game conditions in different locales: Try the Live Casino Poker Forum.
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Old 10-10-2016, 05:06 PM   #16529
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I said 5/5, I meant 2/5 if there was some mass confusion. Apologies
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Old 10-10-2016, 05:27 PM   #16530
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
PaulyJames,

Lotsa questions in there, many of which don't have much to do with Winrates, or even strategy and might go better in the Live Casino Poker forum.

Cliffs:

Winrate: 10BBs/hr is generally the ceiling for most LLSNL players at most stakes/locations over the long term. There are a few statistical outliers doing better than that over a large sample, but not many.

Volatility: Session volatility varies wildly based on session length, stack sizes, game conditions, player style, etc. There are a few of us ITT with SDev in the 50-60BBs/hr, but most are closer to 100BB/hr, with at least one pro reporting 120BB/hr.


Places to live/game conditions in different locales: Try the Live Casino Poker Forum.
I would say that's dead on. Someone mentioned a few posts up that 10BB was "good" and a crusher could hit 20BBs. I seriously doubt anyone is hitting 20BBs and 10BBs is much more than just "good". I doubt more than 1% of players can hit 10BBs at 2/5 or higher.
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Old 10-10-2016, 08:54 PM   #16531
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

PaulyJames200x, you should go to the las vegas lifestyles subforum (LVL) to ask your vegas questions. Fwiw I know there is a cheap place just northeast of Encore. Don't recall if it is extended stay or apartments but one of my buddies that grinds Wynn likes to stay there.

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Old 10-10-2016, 09:28 PM   #16532
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I ran at 14bb/hr in WSOP tour and other tournament style 2 5 / 5 5 games and 5bb/hr in pro/reg infested twice a week 2 5 games. Not realizing 10bb/hr was sustainable in better locals, I went to B school (a couple winning pro friends who knew my charts chided me).

It's a whole lot easier to win $$ when it's being given away. My local 2 5 included learning to beat/crush a few semi-pros who had Aggro styles and low Vol when I wasn't playing, and fading a couple serious studs who I knew were and are better players (my response to them was to force a level fest and stand my friggin ground w weird OOP lines when needed--creative OOP play vs bfriday refugees so they don't steal your winrate is a rough way to make 5bb/hr). I have deep respect for game selection--and a low-to-midstakes NL winner w no kids should consider following the circuit.


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Old 10-11-2016, 12:23 AM   #16533
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

5/10 runs in most of the LA cards rooms around the clock.
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Old 10-11-2016, 10:43 AM   #16534
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I hit a bad beat, should I include it in my winrate?
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Old 10-11-2016, 11:02 AM   #16535
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
I hit a bad beat, should I include it in my winrate?


No. I don't. If I did I'd look like I am just crushing souls every time I get within 10 miles of a casino. I'm not. Yet.


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Old 10-11-2016, 11:14 AM   #16536
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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
I hit a bad beat, should I include it in my winrate?
This comes up often. Record it as a separate game.

It'll skew your winrate, but it still impacts your overall results. Filter it in/out as needed.
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Old 10-11-2016, 11:23 AM   #16537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
...Because im wondering how many 5/10nl+ pros are even out there on the east coast and on the west coast. Im starting to think the number might be less than 75



Also for winrates, what is considered a goodrate at 1/3nl, 2/5nl and 5/10nl nowadays? I remember at 1/2nl back few years ago, 20/hr was considered crushing. So 1/3nl a good winrate is probably $21hr or 7bb? 2/5nl is probably $25-$30 at 5-6bb. And for 5/10nl... $30-$40 so 3-4bb? Im guessing a very good but not elite 5/10nl reg makes $75/hr. But an elite is probably $100/hr? For 2/5nl, probably the elite reg makes $65hr? The very good but not yet elite is $50/hr? And for the people who play full time, would it be right for me to make an estimate that solid regs but not elite regs are making around this a year?




1/3nl $20000-$40000

2/5nl $30000-$60000

5/10nl $40000- $70000
I am just going to quote someone else who knows the LA scene somewhat well despite him not playing NLHE anymore. This is a response to a question posed to him regarding what he thinks LA 5/10 winrates are:

"...a really good player (not the best) can still realistically make 150k+ playing mid/hi 5-10 (some 20) level but you need to work a little. just sitting at commerce 5-10nl and expecting 150k income isnt gonna happen anymore unless you are one of the top 2 or 3 players in that pool putting in full time+ hours nights and weekends. talking about hourly rates is sort of worthless because you can have a high hourly if you only work peak hours but your yearly will be low because you dont get in the hours. Friday and Saturday nights theres still $150/hr games at 5-10level for the best players. weekday days are prob at the $50/hr level.

In the current poker climate I think anyone can make more in the real world than they can from poker. poker shrunk faster than the overall economy and is recovering much slower (if at all). you need to love something about the poker lifestyle to cut off ties to the real world and do it full time because its a bad decision if youre doing it for the money."

As far as 5/10 NL+ pros who live in LA, there are probably over 150+. So I am pretty sure that the number of 5/10 NL+ pros living in the west coast and east coast together is more. than 300+.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:00 PM   #16538
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

xpost from my Clueless Noob thread:





First 1000 hours: $28.94/hour (9.65 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Second 1000 hours: $27.72/hour (9.24 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Third 1000 hours: $13.74/hour (4.58 bb/hour, huh, poker is hard?)

GitiswhatitisG
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:13 PM   #16539
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
xpost from my Clueless Noob thread:





First 1000 hours: $28.94/hour (9.65 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Second 1000 hours: $27.72/hour (9.24 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Third 1000 hours: $13.74/hour (4.58 bb/hour, huh, poker is hard?)

GitiswhatitisG


Winrates, bankrolls, and finances tyty for sharing GG.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:20 PM   #16540
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October is off to a ****ty start so far. Three sessions dropping stacks from ahead with one win. Meh. Haven't been able to get any volume or prime time sessions due to work.

Lots of fun following a mess of a September where I dropped $1k+ in < 4hrs, TWICE (due partially to PLO/RxR). Guess I should be happy it didn't go worse.

Sep '16 $ -371 over 96.7 96.7 hours --> -3.84 $/hr
Oct '16 $ -300 over 6.7 hours --> -45.00 $/hr
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:21 PM   #16541
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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Not quite sure I understand this. There's no chance that these young hotshots can make as much at a real job as they can at 2/5 if they put in enough hours.
I'd consider myself a young hotshot at 29. Anyone who can beat poker can probably learn how to be a computer programmer and make $40/hour + life insurance, or $75/hour consulting. Real job >>>>> 2/5 in terms of hourly and life prospects.

Sometimes the regs at my casino ask me when I'm quitting my job, I just laugh.

Last edited by Ranma4703; 10-11-2016 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:22 PM   #16542
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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
I'd consider myself a young hotshot at 29. Anyone who can beat poker can probably learn how to be a computer programmer and make $40/hour + life insurance, or $75/hour consulting. Real job >>>>> 2/5 in terms of hourly and life prospects
Yup. And you can still play $2/5 on the weekends for fun without needing to worry about your roll.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:25 PM   #16543
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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances tyty for sharing GG.
No problem.

Bip, you're the SD king; anything to make / conclude of my SD?

GcluelessingeneralG
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:25 PM   #16544
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
I'd consider myself a young hotshot at 29. Anyone who can beat poker can probably learn how to be a computer programmer and make $40/hour + life insurance, or $75/hour consulting. Real job >>>>> 2/5 in terms of hourly and life prospects
I'm a 30yo engineer, I understand where you are coming from. I just don't see someone that gives up on poker so easily just because they had to move down becoming a great programmer.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:34 PM   #16545
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Nice chart GG. I can tell your advice is always solid but nice to see I'm not mistaken.

I've been listening so hopefully I'll be posting winning results over a decent sample in the years to come.
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:40 PM   #16546
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Originally Posted by Ragequit99 View Post
Nice chart GG. I can tell your advice is always solid but nice to see I'm not mistaken.

I've been listening so hopefully I'll be posting winning results over a decent sample in the years to come.
If you're listening to advice based on results, then you should have definitely listened to me from mid 2012 - mid 2014, and then probably stopped listening.

GlolzG
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:46 PM   #16547
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
No problem.



Bip, you're the SD king; anything to make / conclude of my SD?



GcluelessingeneralG


Looks like ~$172 / hr. (~57 bb/ hr)

So after 3000 hrs, your 95% confidence results are +/- $18,800 = +/- ~$6/hr
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:48 PM   #16548
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GG - if the game is still similar over the next 1000hrs, you can expect between $12/hr and $35/hr over that 1k hrs (95% of cases)
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Old 10-11-2016, 01:56 PM   #16549
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GG - if the game is still similar over the next 1000hrs, you can expect between $12/hr and $35/hr over that 1k hrs (95% of cases)
Ha, thanks. The $12/hr end of the scale seems doable; $35/hr, not so much.

And although I'm assuming I have a quite nitty SD (???), I had to laugh at the extents. Doesn't seem much different to me that saying there's a 95% chance I'll win between $0/hr and $100/hr, lolz.

ETA: Course, biggest piece of info was "if the game is still similar over the next 1000 hours"...

GhopingtolowermyexpectationstozeroG
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Old 10-11-2016, 02:16 PM   #16550
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I don't think the 1/2 and 1/3 games of the world change much year-to-year.

*except in the situation you described where the room/player pool is collapsing.

Just thinking of my room, 1/3 runs 7 days a week with a peek of 5+ tables on busy nights... 1k hour sample A is going to be damn near 1k hour sample B in terms of game conditions. I say that using the logic: a single player can't make a dent/impact in the system (by playing or not playing).. thus it is governed by much greater macro variables (like the economy, legality, television boom.. LLSNL poker has really been pretty static the last 4~5 year IMO)
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