I don't.
I think mine is the softest in country, why I'm able to have a $31/hr at 1/2nl lol.
The rich midwest farmers that are talked about, are a godsend to my win rate.

Oh, I mean whats normal for winning players.

Im trying to find a variance calculator for cash, but I dont know where it is =/

You're right. And if you have 100 buyins then you wont have to drop down.

Since 3/1 (when i moved to vegas)

72 sessions
53 winning
19 losing
Hours played 228
Hourly profit $41.23/h
Standard dev $202.89/h
Total profit $ $9403
67 1,2 sessions (+$9254)
4 2,5 sessions (-$126)
1 mixed game session (+$275)

Running hot

you have a 6000 hand sample. not bad!

probably on high side of cariance, but maybe not?

whats the game?

1/2

Why not 1,00 buy ins?

Just because there is no definitive answer, doesn't mean a discussion can't exist. I'm pretty sure that's the main point of this thread.

Risk of ruin with 1 BI is close to 100%, no matter how good of a player you are.

From what I read in this and other forums, plus podcasts, and other sources, 5bb/hour is beating a live game. 10bb/hour is crushing it and you can move up. I'd say at least 3-500 hours would be a good sample. People might say more, but I'm not about spending my entire adult life trying to justify a move up from 2-5. These numbers seem to make sense.

I meant, sarcastically, why not 1,000 buyins, by the logic of you'll never go broke. At some point people need to take a chance. Of course, what that point is, is the debate at hand. My point, is that "you'll never go broke with a roll of x" is not really a useful metric.

We are talking about playing full time with no other outside income. The discussion was why you should not be going on a 20 buyin losing streak at 2/5 and thus drop your entire roll.

Why? Because you should have dropped back down to 1/2, or worked out a temporary stake/share with someone.

Yes, at 100 buyins, you might be right, and should take higher shots. However, if you are fully supporting yourself, and maybe even a family then that shot might not be feasibly smart.

play the game that you expect to have the highest hourly in.

everything else is irrelvant! (in regards to game selection)

and I mean real hourly, and with a sustainable amount of volume

ie if the game runs 8hrs a week, you still need to find 22hrs of action

You can beat low stakes for 5bb an hour. But it means nothing if you can't save your winnings. 10bb an hour is almost unheard of. You have to sit in good games all the time. But if you don't save it means nothing.

I read a card player article one time. Discussing about player skill and hourly winrate.

You can take 2 guys with simpler skills and put them into different games and they won't have the same winrate. Why? Because game selection and the luck of donks is a big part of the winrate. My first year I made 10bb an hour. I can't get close to that now. My winrate has dropped to 25 an hour. Does that mean I got worse as a player? No, it just means I got lucky and played in some great games often.

You can go a little further and take one guy who is clearly better then the next. The guy with lesser skill who plays in better games could crush the higher skill player winrate.

So I agree with seeUlater its pointless to talk about winrates. Our main focus should be saving our winnings and beating this gruesome rake. Not hourly because their is no definitive answer.

This clueless NL noob just played his 100th 1/3 NL live session.

Overall, so far, so good, although my 100th session sucked as I ended up booking my 2nd worst loss (-287 BBs) and this loss helps extend a fairly "lengthy" meh stretch (and by "lengthy" I mean a lol amount of hours stretched out over many months due to my once-per-week schedule).

The overall numbers so far:

100 sessions (69 wins, 30 losses, 1 breakeven)

$13,601 in 650 hours ($20.92/hr = 6.97 BB/hr)

Average session length: 6.5 hours


But this year has been a trying one so far. 21 sessions (13 wins, 7 losses, 1 tie), winning a grand total of $300 in 138.8 hrs, so crushing the game this year to the tune of $2.16/hr = 0.72 BB/hr.

The thing that is constantly reinforced as a once-per-week player is that a single session can have such a devastating effect (+ or -) on the overall winrate over a "large" period of time (measuring in months) due to the fact that the amount of hours played in this time is so lol small. For example, before I played my 100th session, my previous 20 sessions I was limping along at a very mediocre rate of $1,161 over 129.5 hours ($8.97/hr = 2.99 BB/hr), all of which then was destroyed thanks to my last session. And in the end I'm fairly sure (??? I could be wrong) part of the reason my last session sucked so bad was simply landing on the bad side of variance on two hands (both of which I've posted).

Oh well. I guess overall I have to be thankful that my bad stretches simply mean I win at a much lower rate than I usually do (as opposed to outright losing).

It'll be interesting what all this looks like at 1000 hours when I've promised to post a pooh-bahish thread.

GcluelessNLnoobG

^ So, 100 sessions is the past 2 years?

~50 weeks in a year and playing once per week?

Yup, once a week, like clockwork.

Makes the long run so very very very long.

GsurehopeI'mrunninggoodthislifetimeG

time is irrelevant in regards to results

you should only worry about hands played and hrly won/lost

and sessions are another stupid invention

Live, gotta love it and hate it. Last two times I have picked up aa villain has flopped a two gap straight on flop ie k,10,9 flop rainbow.

Both time I have raised to 20 with 1/3 blinds. I hope to run good and looking for elusive jackpot.

so true

but in theory somewhere someone has to be right

sorry for you troubles

being winning player is only a start. unfortunately you weren't winning enough to grow you BR(or spending too much) - this is a critical point most miss

if you are constantly depleting you BR you are almost gauranteed to go broke

fulltime pros need a BIG cushion, BIG winrate, and low expenses

Profit of 80k

Bankroll of 10k


Does.
Not.
Compute.

What is this from?

Mr. PayoffWizard.

Scroll up a bit.