Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-21-2012, 01:01 PM   #1601
LolPony
Pooh-Bah
 
LolPony's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @DeTalores
Posts: 4,124
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
I hear the same thing about CT casinos.

Everyone thinks their home casino is the toughest in the country.

It's not
I don't.
I think mine is the softest in country, why I'm able to have a $31/hr at 1/2nl lol.
The rich midwest farmers that are talked about, are a godsend to my win rate.
LolPony is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 02:06 PM   #1602
dhcg86
banned
 
dhcg86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Ignoring the trolls under my bridge
Posts: 12,410
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh, I mean whats normal for winning players.

Im trying to find a variance calculator for cash, but I dont know where it is =/
dhcg86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 02:42 PM   #1603
Gazaway TM
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Auburn, Alabama
Posts: 130
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhcg86 View Post
SUREEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Im curious what a variance calculator would look like for a 10% roi, or whatever 5bbs/100 hands is. I fairly sure there are 20bi swings
You're right. And if you have 100 buyins then you wont have to drop down.
Gazaway TM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 02:42 PM   #1604
imakeposts
old hand
 
imakeposts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,798
Since 3/1 (when i moved to vegas)

72 sessions
53 winning
19 losing
Hours played 228
Hourly profit $41.23/h
Standard dev $202.89/h
Total profit $ $9403
67 1,2 sessions (+$9254)
4 2,5 sessions (-$126)
1 mixed game session (+$275)
imakeposts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 02:58 PM   #1605
1ns71nct
banned
 
1ns71nct's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,415
Quote:
Originally Posted by imakeposts View Post
Since 3/1 (when i moved to vegas)

72 sessions
53 winning
19 losing
Hours played 228
Hourly profit $41.23/h
Standard dev $202.89/h
Total profit $ $9403
67 1,2 sessions (+$9254)
4 2,5 sessions (-$126)
1 mixed game session (+$275)
Running hot
1ns71nct is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 03:05 PM   #1606
dhcg86
banned
 
dhcg86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Ignoring the trolls under my bridge
Posts: 12,410
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

you have a 6000 hand sample. not bad!

probably on high side of cariance, but maybe not?

whats the game?
dhcg86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 03:06 PM   #1607
1ns71nct
banned
 
1ns71nct's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,415
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhcg86 View Post
you have a 6000 hand sample. not bad!

probably on high side of cariance, but maybe not?

whats the game?
1/2
1ns71nct is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:13 PM   #1608
Jersey Jay
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Fairview, New Jersey
Posts: 377
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazaway TM View Post
You're right. And if you have 100 buyins then you wont have to drop down.
Why not 1,00 buy ins?
Jersey Jay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:14 PM   #1609
Jersey Jay
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Fairview, New Jersey
Posts: 377
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaUlater View Post
Why ask these questions that have no definitive answer.

"Normal" winrate for most players is < 0 an hour, and for those that keep on asking this sort of questions, theirs are probably in the same ballpark.
Just because there is no definitive answer, doesn't mean a discussion can't exist. I'm pretty sure that's the main point of this thread.
Jersey Jay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:19 PM   #1610
fredd-bird
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
fredd-bird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: KG
Posts: 19,330
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdoury View Post
Why not 1,00 buy ins?
Risk of ruin with 1 BI is close to 100%, no matter how good of a player you are.
fredd-bird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:19 PM   #1611
Jersey Jay
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Fairview, New Jersey
Posts: 377
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhcg86 View Post
so whats the normal winrate? 5bbs an hour so thats like 17bbs/100?
From what I read in this and other forums, plus podcasts, and other sources, 5bb/hour is beating a live game. 10bb/hour is crushing it and you can move up. I'd say at least 3-500 hours would be a good sample. People might say more, but I'm not about spending my entire adult life trying to justify a move up from 2-5. These numbers seem to make sense.
Jersey Jay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:21 PM   #1612
Jersey Jay
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Fairview, New Jersey
Posts: 377
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by fredd-bird View Post
Risk of ruin with 1 BI is close to 100%, no matter how good of a player you are.
I meant, sarcastically, why not 1,000 buyins, by the logic of you'll never go broke. At some point people need to take a chance. Of course, what that point is, is the debate at hand. My point, is that "you'll never go broke with a roll of x" is not really a useful metric.
Jersey Jay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 04:32 PM   #1613
Gazaway TM
centurion
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Auburn, Alabama
Posts: 130
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdoury View Post
I meant, sarcastically, why not 1,000 buyins, by the logic of you'll never go broke. At some point people need to take a chance. Of course, what that point is, is the debate at hand. My point, is that "you'll never go broke with a roll of x" is not really a useful metric.
We are talking about playing full time with no other outside income. The discussion was why you should not be going on a 20 buyin losing streak at 2/5 and thus drop your entire roll.

Why? Because you should have dropped back down to 1/2, or worked out a temporary stake/share with someone.

Yes, at 100 buyins, you might be right, and should take higher shots. However, if you are fully supporting yourself, and maybe even a family then that shot might not be feasibly smart.
Gazaway TM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 05:20 PM   #1614
dhcg86
banned
 
dhcg86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Ignoring the trolls under my bridge
Posts: 12,410
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

play the game that you expect to have the highest hourly in.

everything else is irrelvant! (in regards to game selection)

and I mean real hourly, and with a sustainable amount of volume

ie if the game runs 8hrs a week, you still need to find 22hrs of action
dhcg86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 05:27 PM   #1615
PokahAllday
adept
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 906
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You can beat low stakes for 5bb an hour. But it means nothing if you can't save your winnings. 10bb an hour is almost unheard of. You have to sit in good games all the time. But if you don't save it means nothing.

I read a card player article one time. Discussing about player skill and hourly winrate.

You can take 2 guys with simpler skills and put them into different games and they won't have the same winrate. Why? Because game selection and the luck of donks is a big part of the winrate. My first year I made 10bb an hour. I can't get close to that now. My winrate has dropped to 25 an hour. Does that mean I got worse as a player? No, it just means I got lucky and played in some great games often.

You can go a little further and take one guy who is clearly better then the next. The guy with lesser skill who plays in better games could crush the higher skill player winrate.

So I agree with seeUlater its pointless to talk about winrates. Our main focus should be saving our winnings and beating this gruesome rake. Not hourly because their is no definitive answer.
PokahAllday is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 11:37 AM   #1616
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This clueless NL noob just played his 100th 1/3 NL live session.

Overall, so far, so good, although my 100th session sucked as I ended up booking my 2nd worst loss (-287 BBs) and this loss helps extend a fairly "lengthy" meh stretch (and by "lengthy" I mean a lol amount of hours stretched out over many months due to my once-per-week schedule).

The overall numbers so far:

100 sessions (69 wins, 30 losses, 1 breakeven)

$13,601 in 650 hours ($20.92/hr = 6.97 BB/hr)

Average session length: 6.5 hours


But this year has been a trying one so far. 21 sessions (13 wins, 7 losses, 1 tie), winning a grand total of $300 in 138.8 hrs, so crushing the game this year to the tune of $2.16/hr = 0.72 BB/hr.

The thing that is constantly reinforced as a once-per-week player is that a single session can have such a devastating effect (+ or -) on the overall winrate over a "large" period of time (measuring in months) due to the fact that the amount of hours played in this time is so lol small. For example, before I played my 100th session, my previous 20 sessions I was limping along at a very mediocre rate of $1,161 over 129.5 hours ($8.97/hr = 2.99 BB/hr), all of which then was destroyed thanks to my last session. And in the end I'm fairly sure (??? I could be wrong) part of the reason my last session sucked so bad was simply landing on the bad side of variance on two hands (both of which I've posted).

Oh well. I guess overall I have to be thankful that my bad stretches simply mean I win at a much lower rate than I usually do (as opposed to outright losing).

It'll be interesting what all this looks like at 1000 hours when I've promised to post a pooh-bahish thread.

GcluelessNLnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 12:36 PM   #1617
masaraksh
Pooh-Bah
 
masaraksh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: beantown
Posts: 5,252
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ So, 100 sessions is the past 2 years?

~50 weeks in a year and playing once per week?
masaraksh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 03:26 PM   #1618
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh View Post
^ So, 100 sessions is the past 2 years?

~50 weeks in a year and playing once per week?
Yup, once a week, like clockwork.

Makes the long run so very very very long.

GsurehopeI'mrunninggoodthislifetimeG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 03:42 PM   #1619
dhcg86
banned
 
dhcg86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Ignoring the trolls under my bridge
Posts: 12,410
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

time is irrelevant in regards to results

you should only worry about hands played and hrly won/lost

and sessions are another stupid invention
dhcg86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 03:45 PM   #1620
serio562
Pooh-Bah
 
serio562's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 3,534
Live, gotta love it and hate it. Last two times I have picked up aa villain has flopped a two gap straight on flop ie k,10,9 flop rainbow.

Both time I have raised to 20 with 1/3 blinds. I hope to run good and looking for elusive jackpot.
serio562 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 11:32 PM   #1621
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
I hear the same thing about CT casinos.

Everyone thinks their home casino is the toughest in the country.

It's not
so true

but in theory somewhere someone has to be right
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 11:41 PM   #1622
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PayOffWizard2012 View Post
How so?

Since I started playing 2/5 for a living over 2 years ago I have logged 3,457 hours of play and have a profit of $80k averaging $23/hr without ever having a downswing of more then 7 buy-ins ($3,500)

Then I lost my entire bankroll of over $10k pretty much all at once, booking losing session after losing session with a win here and there.
sorry for you troubles

being winning player is only a start. unfortunately you weren't winning enough to grow you BR(or spending too much) - this is a critical point most miss

if you are constantly depleting you BR you are almost gauranteed to go broke

fulltime pros need a BIG cushion, BIG winrate, and low expenses
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-23-2012, 11:48 PM   #1623
RobFarha
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RobFarha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @robbyrobbb
Posts: 9,468
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Profit of 80k

Bankroll of 10k


Does.
Not.
Compute.
RobFarha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2012, 12:10 AM   #1624
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
Profit of 80k

Bankroll of 10k


Does.
Not.
Compute.
What is this from?
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2012, 12:12 AM   #1625
SeaUlater
banned
 
SeaUlater's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,797
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mr. PayoffWizard.

Scroll up a bit.
SeaUlater is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive