Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
People did try to warn me and I generally disregarded it because I didn't understand what they were talking about. I'm pretty sure whatever they were trying to warn me about though was considerably less severe then the actual variance I exhibited this year. 2015 I beat 1/2 for 35/hr, 2/5 for 68/hr and had a 67% session win rate. 2016 I'm running 25/hr at 1/2 and 2/5 I haven't even bothered to retabulate because it's been -70/hr for months on end with a sub-50% win rate across all limits. I'm up about 30k this year but the negative variance has forced me to completely alter my game plan. I won't even consider playing 2/5 full-time until my BR is >50k and I still think that is too low. Parx 2/5 is probably the toughest game in town and the variance at this 200 BB game cap is absurd.
My learning crucible occurred during a long narsty run (eg lost w pocket kk 15 of 17 times in a row--losses ranging from 30--900 (the latter at 1/3, and a mistake by me)). It wildly changed the way I play and think about edge.
When 55/45 goes against you past a standard deviation of average, you can start to look for places with larger edges (fold equity, bluff catching, getting the money in when you're like 80+% good) while minimizing plusEV but higher variance spots (hint AK pre and betting draws without enough FE in your opponents).
Also causes me to focus on as much non-card edge as possible (reverse tells, live reads, etc.). While it may not get you back to crushing, it can get your w/r closer to even.
Best day of poker of my life I was down 50 bucks at 2/5-- got felted AI twice for over 400 total bigs between em and money went in WAY good. Yay Var.
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