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Old 09-22-2016, 12:45 PM   #16201
spikeraw22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Currently just enter everything into my phone app, but considering copying everything to an excel doc as well so I can play with filtering of hours more easily since my app only allows me to graph by session and not by hours. I have gotten dreadfully lazy on my note taking.

The COTM on off table work has some pretty good ideas from Mpethy.
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Old 09-22-2016, 12:49 PM   #16202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
I like time of day being tracked. Not sure how I'd deal w big pot hands, but I like the thought behind it.

My addition was keeping track of how much I bought in for. Eg +300 on 12 hr sesh at 1/3 means something diff if I bought in for 400 or I bought in for 1000 (I always top off), from a volatility standpoint, at least


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For me it's just a "notes" section. Like a few I have are
"Won a lol 350bb ai pot with AA vs 66."
"Hero'd a spewy tilting reg with A high for 150bb into 50bb otr"
"Bottom set loses to tptk for 210bb each otf"
Like that sort of **** will still be showing a noticeable effect 1k hours later on my winrate.

But I don't track it from any sort math stand point.
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Old 09-22-2016, 04:29 PM   #16203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit View Post
I'm going to wade into this thread and probably eventually read the entire thing and summarize the useful information.

For now, I have a question. Does anyone have a spreadsheet using the formula for calculating standard deviation for live poker sessions of varying length as described by Mason Malmuth in Gambling Theory and Other Topics? I currently enter my results into Google Sheets, use LibreOffice for anything more complicated, and have no access to Excel, but could figure out what to do if given Excel formulas.
I haven't read that book, but I'm guessing I'm using the same formula as he is because it's supposed to do the same thing. The following LaTeX code is shamelessly stolen from a nice post by BruceZ:



where
Xi is the amount won in the ith session (dollars or bb)
Ti is the duration of the ith session (hours or hands)
µ is the win rate per unit time ($/hr, bb/hand, etc.)
N is the number of sessions

This is how I represent the formula in Excel:

=SQRT(SUM((A2:A200-B2:B200*E200)^2/B2:B200)/COUNT(A2:A200))

A is my session result column, B is my session length column, E is my win-rate column, so E200 represents my win-rate.

Press "ctrl+shift+enter" when confirming to convert it to an array formula.
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Old 09-22-2016, 06:53 PM   #16204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
Besides date, session length, game structure, and w/l what stats do people track?

Day of week, start and end time, buy in size, category of win/loss (>2BI, >1BI, >1BI). Would also track location if it differed.
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Old 09-23-2016, 01:37 AM   #16205
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Currently just enter everything into my phone app, but considering copying everything to an excel doc as well so I can play with filtering of hours more easily since my app only allows me to graph by session and not by hours. I have gotten dreadfully lazy on my note taking.

The COTM on off table work has some pretty good ideas from Mpethy.
Can you link the COTM you are referring to?
Also, what app?
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Old 09-23-2016, 04:35 PM   #16206
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
Can you link the COTM you are referring to?

Also, what app?


If you go to the stickies there is a link to all COTM in the "best of" thread

COTM: Off Table Analysis

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url...1&share_type=t
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Old 09-23-2016, 05:13 PM   #16207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I use poker income
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Old 09-23-2016, 05:47 PM   #16208
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by McSkinny View Post
So my casino has monthly and a yearly freeroll for regulars, 4k in prizes for monthly 40k yearly, ~35-40 people show for each. Should i count the winnings and/or hours to my overall winrate/total hours? What if i win the yearly for like 10k? So far ive played in 3 monthlys and won ~1k and have it going towards my wr, thanks.
Do they finance this with an extra $1 drop?
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Old 09-23-2016, 06:36 PM   #16209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by scrybe View Post
Do they finance this with an extra $1 drop?
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
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Old 09-24-2016, 10:23 AM   #16210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by McSkinny View Post
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
How much is the total drop and what are the stakes
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Old 09-24-2016, 10:28 AM   #16211
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Originally Posted by McSkinny View Post
no its free, they also have a free bad beat for 4k/2k and 400, and 100/200 bonus for straight/royal flush, i guess those all apply to my question too
If you're using your win rate to try and accurately guess future results, including freerolls will skew your data.

I look at it this way, can I depend on winning the freerolls often enough that it's regular income? If yes include it, if not then you're padding you're win rate and contributing to delusions
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Old 09-24-2016, 11:57 AM   #16212
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I view promos as a fair part of win rate since you are paying rake on almost all of them and they are part of your playing EV.


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Old 09-24-2016, 01:05 PM   #16213
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Promos are random acts of rakeback
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Old 09-24-2016, 04:04 PM   #16214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
Promos are random acts of rakeback
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
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Old 09-24-2016, 05:09 PM   #16215
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Originally Posted by flowrider View Post
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
It's safer to under estimate rather than overestimate your win rate , So I disagree with you in that there is something wrong with breaking it both ways. Additionally , if you included it in your win rate, your win rate would only be accurate for that casino and only when those promos are running, right?

Last edited by VolumeKing; 09-24-2016 at 05:16 PM.
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Old 09-24-2016, 06:18 PM   #16216
McSkinny
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
How much is the total drop and what are the stakes
10% $5 cap, 1/2



Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
If you're using your win rate to try and accurately guess future results, including freerolls will skew your data.

I look at it this way, can I depend on winning the freerolls often enough that it's regular income? If yes include it, if not then you're padding you're win rate and contributing to delusions
Well each seat to the monthly freeroll is worth around $100, and the yearly is $1000, and id say I have a good edge over the player pool so maybe a little more for me. So far I have won one for 1k, min cashed one for 100, and didnt cash the other.



Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
It's safer to under estimate rather than overestimate your win rate , So I disagree with you in that there is something wrong with breaking it both ways. Additionally , if you included it in your win rate, your win rate would only be accurate for that casino and only when those promos are running, right?
Yea this is the only drawback I can see to including it, but I only have this one casino near me and probably won't play anywhere else this year.
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Old 09-25-2016, 01:03 PM   #16217
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
Promos are random acts of rakeback
Quote:
Originally Posted by flowrider View Post
If you are regularly receiving 'random acts of rakeback' (which I do, from high hand promos), then it's not so random. Nothing wrong with breaking it out both ways, though.
There has been so much talk about this throughout the history of this thread that it's become ridiculous. It's a matter of personal choice.

If you want to see if your skill can get you to the point where your skill is winning you $20+ per hour, so that you can claim that you are crushing the game; or, be able to compare your WR with others, you don't add the promos in.

If you don't care about that & want to know what your WR is with your promo money, you add it in. Just don't say here: "With my promo money, I'm winning X per hour" because it doesn't mean anything to anyone but you.

I earn/win a lot of promo money. Over 3k so far this year. I've played not 1.5k hours because of the break I took, so that would increase my WR $2+ pr hr if I was adding it in.
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Old 09-25-2016, 01:35 PM   #16218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
PASTED FROM PG&C FROM ~ 1 MONTH AGO

1000 hours


I have now officially gone over 1000 hours of 1/2 NLH. I have a smattering of other games and stakes, but this has been my main game for several years. Why haven't I branched out?

1. Bank roll. I was a bank roll nit for a while. Then I had to spend it on school. Then, I just didn't have a lot of disposable income to start over. Then, once I had run it up with the help of a stake, I had to spend it all again on a wedding and honeymoon. Now, I'm rebuilding again. I've already stated that once I reach my min bank roll goal, I'll send the next few months putting money into our house down payment project. That being said, I'm never going broke again for nonpoker reasons. The wife is aware of my rules for this money. I took her out to breakfast this morning with some winnings just to let her remember that there are benefits for her to not try to pressure me into using it.

2. Location. I have several 1/2 games within 15 minutes of me. Most of the time that is necessary due to my family restraints. If 1/2 is the only game you can get to, you play it.

3. I haven't played a lot of other games because I have stayed away from PLO. Sometimes it's been due to bank roll and avoiding swings. Mostly though, it's because my edge isn't nearly as big. PLO doesn't lend itself to massive edges anyway, but I also have very little experience playing it. I'm just now figuring out how to beat it. If I want to follow the trend of the community (and the whales), I'll need to break into this game in a serious way.

I have goals to address these things which I will share in a bit.



Now for the moment you've all been waiting for: The Results!







If I hadn't lost that $1800 AA<66 pot last week I would have cracked $25/hr. Oh well. That just goes to show you how small a sample size 1000 hrs actually is. One big pot can shave 1-2bb/hr in either direction.

I'm obviously ecstatic with these results. Most of my hours were in short sessions, a surprising number were on week days, with most coming later at night during peak hours.

This 1000 hrs took about 4 years to compile. I'd say that's a testament to how busy I was with school and family including several long lay offs. If I could Id play all the time. Interestingly, my win rate has climbed considerably the longer I've played. The sample size isn't big enough to make any true judgments, but it suggests that I've improved at a much faster rate than my player pool.

My first 500 hrs looked like this:






Second 500 hrs were much better:



This can be construed as big improvement as well as running better than anyone has a right to. I hope it's some of both and not just the latter.



Obviously these results made me feel liek this:

Spoiler:
How much does your profit/winrate go down when you include tips to the dealer and cocktail waitresses..
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Old 09-25-2016, 01:57 PM   #16219
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The base $1 tip to the dealer should be thought of as part of the rake imo

Might be worth tracking bigger ones if you think you have a leak with that
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Old 09-25-2016, 01:59 PM   #16220
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Why would you assume that tips weren't included? That would be quite a strange way of tracking. You'd essentially have to add the tips back into the amount you cash out.
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Old 09-25-2016, 02:03 PM   #16221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
The base $1 tip to the dealer should be thought of as part of the rake imo
I hope you aren't tipping a dollar for every pot. That would be a pretty significant leak at the 1/2 or 1/3 level. The base should be $0.
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Old 09-25-2016, 02:05 PM   #16222
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
I hope you aren't tipping a dollar for every pot. That would be a pretty significant leak at the 1/2 or 1/3 level. The base should be $0.


I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip


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Old 09-25-2016, 02:15 PM   #16223
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Warning: tipping discussions often lead to flame wars and/or derails. While it is not a forbidden topic, it could be very easy to fall afoul of thread rules. Post on this subject with care.
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Old 09-25-2016, 02:18 PM   #16224
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Regarding the promo wins: I have the same discussion with new grad students all the time. They're always trying to record only the "required" (or minimum) data from their experiments or simulations. "Oh, we don't need that channel". And I always have to tell them that it's better to record more data than you think you need and never use it, than it is to throw stuff out early.


How do people track tips anyway? ****ing around punching a button on your phone every time you drag a pot? Seems like a pain to track something that we really aren't going to change anyway (as most of us have a simple tipping method, $1/hand > $10, etc ... but that's another thread).


Once again I realized just how weird an average win-rate session is. Played 9.5 hours yesterday and left up a single BI of $200. Felt like treading water for a long time, even though I knew I was playing pretty well without seeing any "big spots". But that still ended up being $21+/hr.

I'll just leave this here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...ng+containment

Last edited by Angrist; 09-25-2016 at 02:20 PM. Reason: Link
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Old 09-25-2016, 02:35 PM   #16225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4 View Post
I did that... Guess it was a leak, but who wants to be the douche that doesn't tip


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Can't tip anything when you're too broke to play though (cause you spent all your money on tipping, get it?)
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