Standard mod "stay on topic, no trolling (or "counter-trolling") ITT warning. Added to my usual, stop being a dick to other posters, even if you think they deserve it.

It does help you create confidence intervals so fair point. But having low or high variance doesn't imply anything about how good you are. Though since it can imply the likelihood of your results continuing I will concede that saying it doesn't matter at all was silly of me.


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I do think players should not worry about what their STD is though, just worry about being plus EV


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I only played there twice so who knows if my assessment is accurate but I saw alot of fishy things like :

Betting $20 into an $80 pot with AA on a wet flop like KJ9 with a flush draw on the flop. I saw small bets like that over and over.

Raising a big pp to $15 OTB after 4 limpers and then getting pissed when he got called 4 times and got cracked.

Bad bet sizing. No idea about the importance of position. Just really bad basic poker stuff and an overall lack of aggression from most players.

Like I said though it was only 2 sessions and it was in the evening when every place is softer so who knows.

I agree with this. I certainly dont think anyone should change their style if they are winning. If your playing style is working for you, keep doing it.

LOL @ calling any of these soft.

Soft is people overplaying hands with big bets, not underplaying strong hands with small bets. Latter is a much smaller mistake.

Just think about it. How are you going to take advantage of these "soft" games? By hitting cards and value bet? LOL.

Actually, if they are going to bet small with TP/overpair type hands and then call large bets with them, that would make the game pretty soft. Mike didn't really specify if that was the case, but I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that it is. Just the other day I saw a hand play out that is reminiscent of what he describes where a guy limped AA utg and it went very multiway. He leads on a 468 board. Gets a caller. Turn 9 he leads again and the other guy shoves on him and he went on about how he knew he was beat but quickly called. That guy underplayed his hand by not raising preflop, but he paid off huge post flop and got it in drawing dead.

I thought it was pretty well known and accepted by most knowledgable players that Seattle has some of the softest games and weakest regs in the US

Sure, but that's still just hitting your cards, exactly what I said...

The game you described is not beatable. They are most likely taking rake above the $15 as well when you aren't looking. All the full time poker players i know that play in underground games play in much bigger games than this (and who knows how often some of those guys go busto or supplement their bankroll with money from other sources).

I've never heard of a live low stakes market where there isn't some absolutely atrocious play but yeah 2 sessions means nothing as it's very easy for games to vary quite a bit from day to day.

So where do you play that's the "softest in the world" mike?

As of right now this thread will be closed. I believe that just about every question that needed to be asked about WR's, bankrolls, etc has been asked. The epeening (as mentioned to me when I first started this thread) is out of control. I also find it funny that those that complain about this hot mess the most are generally the ones trolling in here. Food for thought. I will discuss with the other mods where to go from here. As of now it stays closed.

Search feature is your friend if you need a question answered

I'll just add we aren't going to just allow another thread to open up on the same subject and move the trolling to it, either.

Welcome to the new Official Winrates, Bankrolls and Finances thread. This is your source in the LLSNL forum where you can find out about what good winrates are, what bankroll you need and ask your questions on these subjects.

Yes, I know it is locked. I’ll get into the reasons in a bit. If you do have a question, you can send it to me, venice10, via PM. I’ll post it in this thread and the mods and others will respond. If you don’t have PM abilities and can’t get the answer to your question by reading this thread, create a new thread. A mod will merge it into this thread.

Very simply, winning at any rate is good. The majority of people lose money playing poker. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of the rake. Harrington in HOC wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you’re crushing it. That’s $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn’t mean that you can’t beat it for more. It just means that you’re superior to your opponents.

That said, you aren’t able to accurately calculate a winrate with statistical certainty. The desire to do so is understandable especially for someone who is a pro or aspires to be one. We all want the comfort of knowing if we put in the time, we’ll get rewarded eventually. The problem is that there are several assumptions built into doing a statistical analysis. The biggest and most often forgotten by poker players is that the sample pool has to remain consistent to do the calculation. The issue as a regular player is that the other regular players are working on their game as well and are learning about you. The player pool has changed after the 200th hour of play compared to the first hour. Therefore, your results are going to be different and not comparable. It is also hoped that you have improved in that time as well. So you aren’t the same player you were in the first hour. All you can do is calculate what you’ve actually accomplished in the past. It will not tell you about the future.

Even so, there is a great deal of benefit in tracking what you have done. If you can resist the urge to start tracking after a nice win and erase those sessions where you got drunk and decided to play 10/25, you will find that a great deal of information about yourself and others is available. It will point out where and when you spew. If you track the regulars you play with, you’ll start to see who you do well with at the table and who you don’t. There are many apps these days to track your play. Keeping track of all the good, bad and ugly is more important that what app you use.

The next area is bankroll. The owner of this website years ago did the calculation of how many BB you need in limit poker to minimize your chance of going broke through variance. Someone later converted it to buyins for no limit poker and came up with the number of 20. The issue is that the operative word is “minimize.” It does not eliminate the chance. Going by memory, I believe that even with 20 buyins, you still have a 3.3% chance of busting. If you want to lower the chances, you need more buyins. However, you can never eliminate it. There’s always a chance even as a winning player with 100 buyins you’ll go bust.

Your monthly expenses also play a role in your sustainability as a poker player. In short, the lower they are, the more likely you can sustain a pro’s life. Players that stay around either have another source of income to cover their essential expenses or are frugal. There’s truth in the old joke that the difference between a poker player and a large pizza is that the large pizza can feed a family of four.

So finally, why is this thread locked? Discussing winrates brings out the worst in a lot of people. Some people want to post their “amazing” winrate to brag about how good they are. Others want to drag others down to show their own superiority. It ends up that much heat is generated through the trolling back and forth, but not much light. Therefore, the mods decided that while there is a legitimate need to have a thread like this, none of us want to start watching it like a hawk, infracting and banning people for their behavior. If you as a poster want to comment about a question, feel free to PM any of us and we’ll add your comments if they are respectful and thoughtful. You can be assured that if your comment is, “that winrate is bull****, nobody can do it” or “You suck horribly at poker, give up” you aren’t going to have that added to the thread. Be a PITA about it, and we will decide to infract or ban you for wasting our time. If there are any other questions about why this thread is locked, you can see the old thread for examples.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...nances-771192/

Good luck.

I don't know if this is the right section, because if not, move it please.

I wanted to ask to you guys, what's a good (not "ok" or "acceptable") profit or hourly for a 1-2 live grinder in your opinion?

Same question applies also for a 2-5 live grinder.

Thanks.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...php?p=18517639

To be honest that thread is super long as well as messy..

Per year right?

my last 2000+ hours I have won at a rate of 12bb per hour at 2/5 1k cap games. My computer was stolen with all my records from the proir several years and additional 7k+ hours but I have the written results and the w/r is greater than 10bb/hr. One day I will input these into my phone and post up that giraffe. I have posted the last 2k hour graph in another thread.

I am a perfessional and have werked quite hard at my craft. There are a handful o dudes out there who do this. A solid player that doesnt make mistakes but plays a straight foreword game will win at 6-7bb per hour

Which is why it was locked and this thread was created (and remains locked). Please read the OP as to the reasons and how to ask any further questions on this subject.

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A good win rate @ 1/2 $15-$20 over 2000 hours
A good win rate @ 2/5 $50-$60 over 2000 hours

Anything over that is excellent/phenomenal/or ran really good over 2000 hours (you probably played good too with sun running).

Got this in PM in reference to my post above...

Considering rake at some venues... Yes. Generally more money in play at 2/5 too. Also took into account the winnings that some of our pro members have chimed in with. Would someone be happy with a $30-35/hr clip at 2/5? Absolutely. Dude wanted a "good" WR though. I think $15-20 is a good rate at 1/2 and anyone doing 10-15/hr at 1/2 would be pretty happy assuming they were a rec player. More than $20 after 2000 hours at 1/2 is crushing that game (like $25+ is crushing, and $20-25 is super effing solid).

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Hi all,

Not too sure if this is the correct place to post this but I am begging for help.

I am a 23 year old college student who is in his senior year. I will be graduating debt free thanks to living at home. I have about 9k to my name. I want to start playing 1/3 every Friday and Saturday night at my local casino.

I usually play about 4x a month and generally am a winning player over the small sample size I have played.

My question is what do you guys suggest i take out of my 9k in savings and dedicate to poker? I make about 600 a month while in college (lol) but only have expenses of about 250 a month (if that)

Also, I will never play online poker. Strictly live 1/3.'

Any general advice would be appreciated thank you all!