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Old 08-10-2016, 09:04 PM   #16101
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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What does that even mean?



It's almost like saying number of yards per attempt is more important than completion %.


Well there is actually a decent amount of football metrics that imply that to be the case like dvoa. Our goal is to garner maximum ev, not to have a consistent graph. So yeah if variance is high or low it doesn't say anything about how good you are at poker

All it tells you is what type of style of poker you play

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Old 08-10-2016, 09:09 PM   #16102
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Originally Posted by Cbrewer4 View Post
Our goal is to garner maximum ev, not to have a consistent graph. So yeah if variance is high or low it doesn't say anything about how good you are at poker
Correct, but you can't have "true" WR without consideration of STDEV...

What is true WR anyway?
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:14 PM   #16103
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Correct, but you can't have "true" WR without consideration of STDEV...



What is true WR anyway?

Your theoretical long term WR, which of course in live poker we will pretty much never know. But what your true WR is should not be affected by the amount of variance you have.

All variance does is change the amount of hours until you begin to feel more comfortable hypothesizing about where you stand.


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Old 08-10-2016, 09:15 PM   #16104
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How is it soft?
it's shockingly soft, can't you read?
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:18 PM   #16105
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Originally Posted by Cbrewer4 View Post
Your theoretical long term WR, which of course in live poker we will pretty much never know. But what your true WR is should not be affected by the amount of variance you have.
Why not? If you cannot actually know your true WR, why isn't an estimation of confidence level of your session W/L at least part of an indicator?

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All variance does is change the amount of hours until you begin to feel more comfortable hypothesizing about where you stand.
Isn't that the idea if you can never know what your true WR is?
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:41 PM   #16106
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A good player on a decent heater can produce low STDEV/WR calcs.. so it is not necessarily a mis-calc. What are the stats?

Hours: 900

WR: ? (? Do you only play one stake? If not, did you normalize your results by bb?)

STDEV: ?

Average session length: ?
Ill get back to you on this. I have a few different stakes and need to sort thru my database.
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:46 PM   #16107
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Standard mod "stay on topic, no trolling (or "counter-trolling") ITT warning. Added to my usual, stop being a dick to other posters, even if you think they deserve it.
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:50 PM   #16108
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Why not? If you cannot actually know your true WR, why isn't an estimation of confidence level of your session W/L at least part of an indicator?





Isn't that the idea if you can never know what your true WR is?


It does help you create confidence intervals so fair point. But having low or high variance doesn't imply anything about how good you are. Though since it can imply the likelihood of your results continuing I will concede that saying it doesn't matter at all was silly of me.


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Old 08-10-2016, 09:51 PM   #16109
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I do think players should not worry about what their STD is though, just worry about being plus EV


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Old 08-10-2016, 09:55 PM   #16110
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How is it soft?
I only played there twice so who knows if my assessment is accurate but I saw alot of fishy things like :

Betting $20 into an $80 pot with AA on a wet flop like KJ9 with a flush draw on the flop. I saw small bets like that over and over.

Raising a big pp to $15 OTB after 4 limpers and then getting pissed when he got called 4 times and got cracked.

Bad bet sizing. No idea about the importance of position. Just really bad basic poker stuff and an overall lack of aggression from most players.

Like I said though it was only 2 sessions and it was in the evening when every place is softer so who knows.
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Old 08-10-2016, 09:58 PM   #16111
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I do think players should not worry about what their STD is though, just worry about being plus EV


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I agree with this. I certainly dont think anyone should change their style if they are winning. If your playing style is working for you, keep doing it.
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Old 08-11-2016, 12:32 AM   #16112
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I only played there twice so who knows if my assessment is accurate but I saw alot of fishy things like :

Betting $20 into an $80 pot with AA on a wet flop like KJ9 with a flush draw on the flop. I saw small bets like that over and over.

Raising a big pp to $15 OTB after 4 limpers and then getting pissed when he got called 4 times and got cracked.

Bad bet sizing. No idea about the importance of position. Just really bad basic poker stuff and an overall lack of aggression from most players.

Like I said though it was only 2 sessions and it was in the evening when every place is softer so who knows.
LOL @ calling any of these soft.

Soft is people overplaying hands with big bets, not underplaying strong hands with small bets. Latter is a much smaller mistake.

Just think about it. How are you going to take advantage of these "soft" games? By hitting cards and value bet? LOL.
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Old 08-11-2016, 12:58 AM   #16113
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LOL @ calling any of these soft.

Soft is people overplaying hands with big bets, not underplaying strong hands with small bets. Latter is a much smaller mistake.

Just think about it. How are you going to take advantage of these "soft" games? By hitting cards and value bet? LOL.
Actually, if they are going to bet small with TP/overpair type hands and then call large bets with them, that would make the game pretty soft. Mike didn't really specify if that was the case, but I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that it is. Just the other day I saw a hand play out that is reminiscent of what he describes where a guy limped AA utg and it went very multiway. He leads on a 468 board. Gets a caller. Turn 9 he leads again and the other guy shoves on him and he went on about how he knew he was beat but quickly called. That guy underplayed his hand by not raising preflop, but he paid off huge post flop and got it in drawing dead.
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Old 08-11-2016, 01:13 AM   #16114
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LOL @ calling any of these soft.

Soft is people overplaying hands with big bets, not underplaying strong hands with small bets. Latter is a much smaller mistake.

Just think about it. How are you going to take advantage of these "soft" games? By hitting cards and value bet? LOL.
I thought it was pretty well known and accepted by most knowledgable players that Seattle has some of the softest games and weakest regs in the US
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Old 08-11-2016, 01:35 AM   #16115
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Actually, if they are going to bet small with TP/overpair type hands and then call large bets with them, that would make the game pretty soft. Mike didn't really specify if that was the case, but I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that it is. Just the other day I saw a hand play out that is reminiscent of what he describes where a guy limped AA utg and it went very multiway. He leads on a 468 board. Gets a caller. Turn 9 he leads again and the other guy shoves on him and he went on about how he knew he was beat but quickly called. That guy underplayed his hand by not raising preflop, but he paid off huge post flop and got it in drawing dead.
Sure, but that's still just hitting your cards, exactly what I said...
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Old 08-11-2016, 02:17 AM   #16116
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I live in a non-regulated poker market (Texas; no casinos) As such, the rake here is extraordinarily high (15 dollar max rake, 2 dollar high hand, 1 dollar monthly freeroll) which is even smaller rake than the other underground poker rooms here. Currently averaging 46.15/hr in this game over 52 hours, continue playing and monitor win rates or is the consensus that a rake this size is unbeatable? Other poker options involve 2 hours commute, which makes the expenses higher than even a 15 dollar rake.
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Average buy in is ~300, there's a few guys that buy in for 100 (play fit/fold c-bet almost always takes pot down, will play multiple buy ins, they usually lose 300 prior to quitting). A regular that buys in for 300 (calling station). A regular that buys in for 500 (good TAG). A couple whales that buy in for 500 (not usually there, but when they are they're good for losing 2-3 buyins). The average table is 5 short stacked nits, 2-3 100bb+ buyin calling stations and 2-3 decent players (100bb+). *editing as I realized I never mentioned the stakes (1/3NL mostly hold'em, one night it's round of hold'em round of Omaha, most nights 10 handed, Monday nights 7 handed)
The game you described is not beatable. They are most likely taking rake above the $15 as well when you aren't looking. All the full time poker players i know that play in underground games play in much bigger games than this (and who knows how often some of those guys go busto or supplement their bankroll with money from other sources).

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I only played there twice so who knows if my assessment is accurate but I saw alot of fishy things like
I've never heard of a live low stakes market where there isn't some absolutely atrocious play but yeah 2 sessions means nothing as it's very easy for games to vary quite a bit from day to day.
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Old 08-11-2016, 03:06 AM   #16117
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So where do you play that's the "softest in the world" mike?
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Old 08-11-2016, 07:56 AM   #16118
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As of right now this thread will be closed. I believe that just about every question that needed to be asked about WR's, bankrolls, etc has been asked. The epeening (as mentioned to me when I first started this thread) is out of control. I also find it funny that those that complain about this hot mess the most are generally the ones trolling in here. Food for thought. I will discuss with the other mods where to go from here. As of now it stays closed.

Search feature is your friend if you need a question answered

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Old 08-11-2016, 08:48 PM   #16119
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As of right now this thread will be closed. I believe that just about every question that needed to be asked about WR's, bankrolls, etc has been asked. The epeening (as mentioned to me when I first started this thread) is out of control. I also find it funny that those that complain about this hot mess the most are generally the ones trolling in here. Food for thought. I will discuss with the other mods where to go from here. As of now it stays closed.

Search feature is your friend if you need a question asked.
I'll just add we aren't going to just allow another thread to open up on the same subject and move the trolling to it, either.
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Old 08-19-2016, 06:54 PM   #16120
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Post ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Welcome to the new Official Winrates, Bankrolls and Finances thread. This is your source in the LLSNL forum where you can find out about what good winrates are, what bankroll you need and ask your questions on these subjects.

Yes, I know it is locked. I’ll get into the reasons in a bit. If you do have a question, you can send it to me, venice10, via PM. I’ll post it in this thread and the mods and others will respond. If you don’t have PM abilities and can’t get the answer to your question by reading this thread, create a new thread. A mod will merge it into this thread.

Very simply, winning at any rate is good. The majority of people lose money playing poker. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of the rake. Harrington in HOC wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you’re crushing it. That’s $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn’t mean that you can’t beat it for more. It just means that you’re superior to your opponents.

That said, you aren’t able to accurately calculate a winrate with statistical certainty. The desire to do so is understandable especially for someone who is a pro or aspires to be one. We all want the comfort of knowing if we put in the time, we’ll get rewarded eventually. The problem is that there are several assumptions built into doing a statistical analysis. The biggest and most often forgotten by poker players is that the sample pool has to remain consistent to do the calculation. The issue as a regular player is that the other regular players are working on their game as well and are learning about you. The player pool has changed after the 200th hour of play compared to the first hour. Therefore, your results are going to be different and not comparable. It is also hoped that you have improved in that time as well. So you aren’t the same player you were in the first hour. All you can do is calculate what you’ve actually accomplished in the past. It will not tell you about the future.

Even so, there is a great deal of benefit in tracking what you have done. If you can resist the urge to start tracking after a nice win and erase those sessions where you got drunk and decided to play 10/25, you will find that a great deal of information about yourself and others is available. It will point out where and when you spew. If you track the regulars you play with, you’ll start to see who you do well with at the table and who you don’t. There are many apps these days to track your play. Keeping track of all the good, bad and ugly is more important that what app you use.

The next area is bankroll. The owner of this website years ago did the calculation of how many BB you need in limit poker to minimize your chance of going broke through variance. Someone later converted it to buyins for no limit poker and came up with the number of 20. The issue is that the operative word is “minimize.” It does not eliminate the chance. Going by memory, I believe that even with 20 buyins, you still have a 3.3% chance of busting. If you want to lower the chances, you need more buyins. However, you can never eliminate it. There’s always a chance even as a winning player with 100 buyins you’ll go bust.

Your monthly expenses also play a role in your sustainability as a poker player. In short, the lower they are, the more likely you can sustain a pro’s life. Players that stay around either have another source of income to cover their essential expenses or are frugal. There’s truth in the old joke that the difference between a poker player and a large pizza is that the large pizza can feed a family of four.

So finally, why is this thread locked? Discussing winrates brings out the worst in a lot of people. Some people want to post their “amazing” winrate to brag about how good they are. Others want to drag others down to show their own superiority. It ends up that much heat is generated through the trolling back and forth, but not much light. Therefore, the mods decided that while there is a legitimate need to have a thread like this, none of us want to start watching it like a hawk, infracting and banning people for their behavior. If you as a poster want to comment about a question, feel free to PM any of us and we’ll add your comments if they are respectful and thoughtful. You can be assured that if your comment is, “that winrate is bull****, nobody can do it” or “You suck horribly at poker, give up” you aren’t going to have that added to the thread. Be a PITA about it, and we will decide to infract or ban you for wasting our time. If there are any other questions about why this thread is locked, you can see the old thread for examples.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...nances-771192/

Good luck.
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Old 08-21-2016, 02:19 PM   #16121
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Post How much?

I don't know if this is the right section, because if not, move it please.

I wanted to ask to you guys, what's a good (not "ok" or "acceptable") profit or hourly for a 1-2 live grinder in your opinion?

Same question applies also for a 2-5 live grinder.

Thanks.
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Old 08-21-2016, 02:47 PM   #16122
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re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...php?p=18517639
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Old 08-21-2016, 02:53 PM   #16123
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re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

To be honest that thread is super long as well as messy..
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Old 08-21-2016, 03:07 PM   #16124
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re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

Per year right?
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Old 08-21-2016, 04:25 PM   #16125
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re: ***Official Winrates, Bankroll and Finances Thread***

my last 2000+ hours I have won at a rate of 12bb per hour at 2/5 1k cap games. My computer was stolen with all my records from the proir several years and additional 7k+ hours but I have the written results and the w/r is greater than 10bb/hr. One day I will input these into my phone and post up that giraffe. I have posted the last 2k hour graph in another thread.

I am a perfessional and have werked quite hard at my craft. There are a handful o dudes out there who do this. A solid player that doesnt make mistakes but plays a straight foreword game will win at 6-7bb per hour
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