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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

04-03-2016 , 10:35 PM
Anyone who prefers B over A is obviously seeking some sort of stable income.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-03-2016 , 11:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Win / loss % doesn't technically matter but if I had a choice between

a) Win $500 on Monday..lose $100 on Tuesday
b) Win $200 on Monday..win $200 on Tuesday

I'll take B.
yeh but that compound interest though
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-04-2016 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Win / loss % doesn't technically matter but if I had a choice between

a) Win $500 on Monday..lose $100 on Tuesday
b) Win $200 on Monday..win $200 on Tuesday

I'll take B.
Why?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-04-2016 , 01:04 PM
It doesn't really matter at the end of the month if you have A or B.

I'd actually have a preference for A in a smaller player pool with regs. Without knowing more it probably means you look like an action player, which is typically good for your winrate. It also lets people see you lose once in a while. If you make a bit of a deal/scene when that happens (berating a dealer, or some general "I can't win, what the ****" kind of statements) you can manipulate your image so that they remember you losing, but not the times you quietly win $600 (and always say that you're in for $500+ ).

I guess that comes down to if you rather have everyone fold when you bet, or give you action instead.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-04-2016 , 02:24 PM
I don't think it's that bad to prefer B. Mental games aren't perfect for everyone, and that can be true even for people who do very well.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-04-2016 , 02:40 PM
Problem with desiring B is that you'll start thinking more about stop win.
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04-04-2016 , 02:41 PM
Time value of money tho
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04-04-2016 , 02:53 PM
FWIW, it's quite normal to prefer B, hence most people have a job.
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04-04-2016 , 11:01 PM
A stable income is generally preferred to one with variance, but that's not the only thing that separates poker from a standard job.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-04-2016 , 11:25 PM
Whether I prefer it or not, I'm definitely a "practitioner" of A
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
People obsess over risk of ruin from the cards... much more likely life bites your roll, not poker

- medical
- family
- women
- cars / home
- degen habits (drugs, pit, sports betting)
- theft

... about the only people immune to the life risk are those with high paying jobs. And for those people, you don't need a roll for LLSNL

If you are a winning full time player - poker is not going to sink you, everything else might
I think that was mostly true when times were good. But now that most players have no choice but to grind out $30/hr playing 2-5 it's much easier to go broke. For a lot of people this will not be a bad thing as most jobs pay more ever year instead of less like poker.
Personally my win rate in Macau dropped every year by about 50% for three years. In the forth year 2012 it was slightly negative. Of course, Macau has the $25 rake issue which makes the game unbeatable these day. Now I play casually a few times a week.

Last edited by aling; 04-05-2016 at 12:29 AM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing
YTD

I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aling
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
I think it's close and depends where you play and how many prime hours you play. I'm just below $50 an hour over the last 5k hours at 2/5 and 5/5 the past few years.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aling
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
I'm currently at $51.69 /hr after 500 hours of $2/$5. I play mostly daytime hours vs a bunch of OMCs.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aling
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
USD or HKD 10-25?

Yeah that's the one thing about poker, how it distorts my perceived value of time.

I don't know if it does come to it one day, if I'd be able to mentally accept any sort of income that generates something significantly less then my hourly.

By the way hows the live poker scene out there? Is it a decent place to grind 2/5 and 5/10 USD? cost of living?

Seems like a cool place to visit for poker for like a 3 month trip
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 04:46 PM
Sustainable as in 5-10 years down the line? 2000 hours per year?Outside of places with a high cost of living I would say no.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aling
I think that was mostly true when times were good. But now that most players have no choice but to grind out $30/hr playing 2-5 it's much easier to go broke. For a lot of people this will not be a bad thing as most jobs pay more ever year instead of less like poker.
Personally my win rate in Macau dropped every year by about 50% for three years. In the forth year 2012 it was slightly negative. Of course, Macau has the $25 rake issue which makes the game unbeatable these day. Now I play casually a few times a week.
Both of you guys are right.

45k @1500 hours, $30hr

Real life is going swallow the 45k since you have to pay for everything out of pocket.

A nasty downswing or even a break even stretch will wipe out the poker bank roll and then they are ****ed. No money no poker no income

And that's when the bad stuff happens. They don't want to grow up and end up getting staked or scam or coaching or whatever else to stay in action
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-05-2016 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp
USD or HKD 10-25?

Yeah that's the one thing about poker, how it distorts my perceived value of time.

I don't know if it does come to it one day, if I'd be able to mentally accept any sort of income that generates something significantly less then my hourly.

By the way hows the live poker scene out there? Is it a decent place to grind 2/5 and 5/10 USD? cost of living?

Seems like a cool place to visit for poker for like a 3 month trip
USD 10-25 once a week in the states. I don't play in Macau anymore the games are absolutely awful with rake capped at $25. On the plus side their struggling economy has led to cheaper hotels so if you want to go visit I would recommend playing tourneys instead of cash.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-07-2016 , 01:36 PM
Since my big data-dump in Jan things have gone pretty well:

Feb: +$813 in 47.8 hours
March: +$2176 in 65.4 hours
April: +$1525 in 17.8 hours

+$4514 in 131 hours for $34.4/hr over a LOL sample size.

Mostly $1/2 NLHE, smattering of $1/2 PLO (with and without a $5 bring in). Looks like I'm seeing some of the 'up' variance to complement the 'down' or 'flat' variance from last year.


Really interesting to see the insanity at my local PLO game. Very deep stacks, but rather than seeing big bets on the turn or river as you might expect from the way a book tells you to play deep PLO, it's lots of multi-way multi-hundred bets preflop or on the flop. Also guys buying in for $100-200 and potting over a $15 straddle and 4 callers pre. It's easily beatable by folding almost all hands preflop, and getting it in with something nutty (for PLO) pre, or OTF in $15-30/each pot. But I can't help but think the winrate ceiling should be *really* high in a game like that .... I know it's the live low stakes NL forum, but anybody have thoughts on how big a winrate at a comparable live PLO game might be, and how to achieve it?
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04-08-2016 , 08:43 AM
Today, it has been exactly 1 year since I made the transition to live poker. I come from an online background where I used to play 2000 hands per hour 6 tabling zoom, therefore the transition was pretty hard at first when I was left playing ~25 hands per hour. I am pretty happy that I made the transition given the state of online poker these days. I still have a lot to learn but I am happy of my game right now. Most of my volume was initially at $1/2 and now its mostly at $2/5 and $1/3. The $2/5 plays pretty deep with an uncapped buyin and the winrate I believe are much bigger then your average $2/5 game which is capped at 100bb. Will be fun to check back in this thread a year from now and see the progress. The 5/10 rarely runs where I play so I will probably still be playing $2/5.



$1/2 544 hours $8,134 $15p/h
$1/3 445 hours $18,549 $41p/h
$2/5 244 hours $23,084 $94p/h
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-08-2016 , 12:59 PM
^^^^

Awesome results.

Gjelly;moveuptowheretheyresepectyourraises,ldoG
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-08-2016 , 01:25 PM
That's pretty sick volume, 1250 hrs/yr is a lot. If this your primary job, or a side thing?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-08-2016 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
^^^^

Awesome results.

Gjelly;moveuptowheretheyresepectyourraises,ldoG
thank you very much, I am playing primarly 2/5 these days which is the biggest stakes at the casino 6/7 days.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
That's pretty sick volume, 1250 hrs/yr is a lot. If this your primary job, or a side thing?
thank you, not really it comes down to 104 hours a month. I am aiming for 1600hours this year minimum. I am a undergrad student who has a lot of free time on his hands, uni is still number 1 priority but my schedule works well to put in a lot of poker hours.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-11-2016 , 09:54 AM
I finally realize why I never win when I play 2-5. I have a win rate close to 0 in a very small sample size. I usually play bigger. In the 2-5 game typical break even and slightly losing players generally try to play nitty but dont have the self control. I've seen it numerous times but finally realized this is why. I have a hand where I raise the button with 9T suited and a mid position limper. Limper and BB call. BB leads out 2/3 pot on A93 two clubs board I call. Turn a K of diamonds giving me a flush draw. Pot is 180 BB has 110 left he check calls my shove.

So when he checks he doesnt want to get it in. Obviously if he does the correct play is to shove first for the fold equity. But after I shove he cant resist and calls.

Anyway these 2-5 bad regs who are often short stacked know deep down how to play for the most part but lack self control. With more experience they will actually follow through on how they know they should play.

My aggression pays off in the bigger games where players are deep and make big lay downs but not in small games. Another example is how players in small games can't fold AK or QQ pre. Even though they don't want to be the one to get it in they will call off 100 BBs with it. They know they should lay it down but can't.

Anyway, it's boring to play like a nit in 2-5 and the bigger games dont run often so I've going to become a realtor.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-11-2016 , 10:27 AM
So ... move up to where they respect your raises?
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