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Old 04-03-2016, 06:30 PM   #14201
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A more meaningful stat would be average wins vs average losses.

If they're about the same, maybe because you're staying too long to chase back losses.

If loss is above win, maybe you need to stay longer when you're winning.

If win is above loss, you're awesome!
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Old 04-03-2016, 06:35 PM   #14202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, probably poor word choice on my part. I'm not discouraged by my number of winning/losing sessions, just noticed my percentage has dipped lately.
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Old 04-03-2016, 06:37 PM   #14203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If your average wins and losses are the same, then obviously % matters. If not, then % doesn't matter.

% becomes the effect in the cause and effect relationship, hence it really doesn't matter.
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Old 04-03-2016, 09:30 PM   #14204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Win / loss % doesn't technically matter but if I had a choice between

a) Win $500 on Monday..lose $100 on Tuesday
b) Win $200 on Monday..win $200 on Tuesday

I'll take B.
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Old 04-03-2016, 09:54 PM   #14205
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Get a job.
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Old 04-03-2016, 10:32 PM   #14206
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Get a job.
Is that choice "C"? I'll stick with choice "B"
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Old 04-03-2016, 10:35 PM   #14207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone who prefers B over A is obviously seeking some sort of stable income.
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Old 04-03-2016, 11:03 PM   #14208
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Win / loss % doesn't technically matter but if I had a choice between

a) Win $500 on Monday..lose $100 on Tuesday
b) Win $200 on Monday..win $200 on Tuesday

I'll take B.
yeh but that compound interest though
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:23 AM   #14209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Win / loss % doesn't technically matter but if I had a choice between

a) Win $500 on Monday..lose $100 on Tuesday
b) Win $200 on Monday..win $200 on Tuesday

I'll take B.
Why?
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Old 04-04-2016, 01:04 PM   #14210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It doesn't really matter at the end of the month if you have A or B.

I'd actually have a preference for A in a smaller player pool with regs. Without knowing more it probably means you look like an action player, which is typically good for your winrate. It also lets people see you lose once in a while. If you make a bit of a deal/scene when that happens (berating a dealer, or some general "I can't win, what the ****" kind of statements) you can manipulate your image so that they remember you losing, but not the times you quietly win $600 (and always say that you're in for $500+ ).

I guess that comes down to if you rather have everyone fold when you bet, or give you action instead.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:24 PM   #14211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think it's that bad to prefer B. Mental games aren't perfect for everyone, and that can be true even for people who do very well.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:40 PM   #14212
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Problem with desiring B is that you'll start thinking more about stop win.
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:41 PM   #14213
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Time value of money tho
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Old 04-04-2016, 02:53 PM   #14214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW, it's quite normal to prefer B, hence most people have a job.
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:01 PM   #14215
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A stable income is generally preferred to one with variance, but that's not the only thing that separates poker from a standard job.
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Old 04-04-2016, 11:25 PM   #14216
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Whether I prefer it or not, I'm definitely a "practitioner" of A
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Old 04-05-2016, 12:23 AM   #14217
aling
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
People obsess over risk of ruin from the cards... much more likely life bites your roll, not poker

- medical
- family
- women
- cars / home
- degen habits (drugs, pit, sports betting)
- theft

... about the only people immune to the life risk are those with high paying jobs. And for those people, you don't need a roll for LLSNL

If you are a winning full time player - poker is not going to sink you, everything else might
I think that was mostly true when times were good. But now that most players have no choice but to grind out $30/hr playing 2-5 it's much easier to go broke. For a lot of people this will not be a bad thing as most jobs pay more ever year instead of less like poker.
Personally my win rate in Macau dropped every year by about 50% for three years. In the forth year 2012 it was slightly negative. Of course, Macau has the $25 rake issue which makes the game unbeatable these day. Now I play casually a few times a week.

Last edited by aling; 04-05-2016 at 12:29 AM.
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Old 04-05-2016, 12:41 AM   #14218
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
YTD

I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
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Old 04-05-2016, 01:40 AM   #14219
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by aling View Post
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
I think it's close and depends where you play and how many prime hours you play. I'm just below $50 an hour over the last 5k hours at 2/5 and 5/5 the past few years.
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:25 AM   #14220
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by aling View Post
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
I'm currently at $51.69 /hr after 500 hours of $2/$5. I play mostly daytime hours vs a bunch of OMCs.
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Old 04-05-2016, 11:30 AM   #14221
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by aling View Post
I wonder if $50/hr is sustainable these days in a 2-5. That's what I made playing 10-25 once a week last year although I did lose 3 30K+ pot. Now I'm trying to decide if 2-5 is worth my time.
USD or HKD 10-25?

Yeah that's the one thing about poker, how it distorts my perceived value of time.

I don't know if it does come to it one day, if I'd be able to mentally accept any sort of income that generates something significantly less then my hourly.

By the way hows the live poker scene out there? Is it a decent place to grind 2/5 and 5/10 USD? cost of living?

Seems like a cool place to visit for poker for like a 3 month trip
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Old 04-05-2016, 04:46 PM   #14222
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sustainable as in 5-10 years down the line? 2000 hours per year?Outside of places with a high cost of living I would say no.
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Old 04-05-2016, 04:56 PM   #14223
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Heart re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by aling View Post
I think that was mostly true when times were good. But now that most players have no choice but to grind out $30/hr playing 2-5 it's much easier to go broke. For a lot of people this will not be a bad thing as most jobs pay more ever year instead of less like poker.
Personally my win rate in Macau dropped every year by about 50% for three years. In the forth year 2012 it was slightly negative. Of course, Macau has the $25 rake issue which makes the game unbeatable these day. Now I play casually a few times a week.
Both of you guys are right.

45k @1500 hours, $30hr

Real life is going swallow the 45k since you have to pay for everything out of pocket.

A nasty downswing or even a break even stretch will wipe out the poker bank roll and then they are ****ed. No money no poker no income

And that's when the bad stuff happens. They don't want to grow up and end up getting staked or scam or coaching or whatever else to stay in action
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Old 04-05-2016, 05:44 PM   #14224
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
USD or HKD 10-25?

Yeah that's the one thing about poker, how it distorts my perceived value of time.

I don't know if it does come to it one day, if I'd be able to mentally accept any sort of income that generates something significantly less then my hourly.

By the way hows the live poker scene out there? Is it a decent place to grind 2/5 and 5/10 USD? cost of living?

Seems like a cool place to visit for poker for like a 3 month trip
USD 10-25 once a week in the states. I don't play in Macau anymore the games are absolutely awful with rake capped at $25. On the plus side their struggling economy has led to cheaper hotels so if you want to go visit I would recommend playing tourneys instead of cash.
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Old 04-07-2016, 01:36 PM   #14225
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since my big data-dump in Jan things have gone pretty well:

Feb: +$813 in 47.8 hours
March: +$2176 in 65.4 hours
April: +$1525 in 17.8 hours

+$4514 in 131 hours for $34.4/hr over a LOL sample size.

Mostly $1/2 NLHE, smattering of $1/2 PLO (with and without a $5 bring in). Looks like I'm seeing some of the 'up' variance to complement the 'down' or 'flat' variance from last year.


Really interesting to see the insanity at my local PLO game. Very deep stacks, but rather than seeing big bets on the turn or river as you might expect from the way a book tells you to play deep PLO, it's lots of multi-way multi-hundred bets preflop or on the flop. Also guys buying in for $100-200 and potting over a $15 straddle and 4 callers pre. It's easily beatable by folding almost all hands preflop, and getting it in with something nutty (for PLO) pre, or OTF in $15-30/each pot. But I can't help but think the winrate ceiling should be *really* high in a game like that .... I know it's the live low stakes NL forum, but anybody have thoughts on how big a winrate at a comparable live PLO game might be, and how to achieve it?
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