[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 484 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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12-12-2015 , 07:14 PM

#12076

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

50-200bb/hr, depending on how laggy their style is.

I think a normal St. Dev. is about 100bb/hr.

Quote

12-12-2015 , 07:21 PM

#12077

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

I feel like 50bb/hr std is unheard of

Quote

12-12-2015 , 07:24 PM

#12078

cannabusto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,876

Yeah, I mean, I get this sample isn't huge, but a std of 10x the mean seems strange.

Quote

12-12-2015 , 07:35 PM

#12079

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

Nah not really. Throw in a few decent losing sessions and it's standard.

Quote

12-12-2015 , 07:42 PM

#12080

cannabusto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,876

Wow ok, so 50-200 bb for 500-750 hours. What about when your winrate stabilizes/converges? Maybe after 5k hours?

Quote

12-12-2015 , 08:02 PM

#12081

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

By 5000 hours you've probably quit poker.

Quote

12-12-2015 , 08:20 PM

#12082

bwslim69

I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24,927

Quote:

Originally Posted by zoltan

By 3.5 hours I probably should've quit poker.

Fyp

Quote

12-13-2015 , 06:46 PM

#12083

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by cannabusto

Wow ok, so 50-200 bb for 500-750 hours. What about when your winrate stabilizes/converges? Maybe after 5k hours?

50-200 bb per hour. The standard deviation on a 500 hour sample is sqrt(500) * stdev per hour.

To say when it converges just depends on what you considered "coverged". i.e. 95% confidence in +/- 1 bb / hr, etc.

Long story short... Your live WR will never converge. You and the game will change before you reach any appreciable convergence.

Quote

12-13-2015 , 07:06 PM

#12084

cannabusto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,876

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

Thanks, bip. Yes, I know it never will actually converge, but I do know a good/bad week or month won't have a massive effect after playing a few thousand hours, but could affect things considerably in a smaller sample.

And thanks for pointing out that the std is per hour. I was thinking in those terms but realize it wouldn't be obvious to a reader.

Quote

12-13-2015 , 07:17 PM

#12085

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,205

I had a picture ITT a few months back that showed the WR confidence vs hours curve

Quote

12-13-2015 , 07:24 PM

#12086

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.

Quote

12-13-2015 , 07:43 PM

#12087

cannabusto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,876

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

I had a picture ITT a few months back that showed the WR confidence vs hours curve

Found it. Thanks again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete

Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.

Ha, no big downswing, just curious. Got drug and alcohol on hand for the downswings though so no worries.

Quote

12-13-2015 , 07:46 PM

#12088

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 29,867

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete

Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.

Lol. 100% agreement although I think both are probably needed

Quote

12-14-2015 , 02:41 AM

#12089

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Does anyone care to see online giraffes or nah?

Quote

12-14-2015 , 03:11 AM

#12090

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.

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12-14-2015 , 03:23 AM

#12091

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

It is, but how much is your therapist bill?

Quote

12-14-2015 , 03:45 AM

#12092

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.

Where did you play?
Were you runnin' hot?
I played last night & won $535 in less than 3 hours. I call that 'High Variance' if there is such a thing.
Targets left & so did I.

Quote

12-14-2015 , 03:47 AM

#12093

feel wrath

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 29,867

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.

Playing 2/3 for a living is my extreme back up plan for if my life really goes to **** and I have no other options to feed my family. Think 30 an hour is definitely possible but cannot imagine not hating going to work every day after 6 months

Quote

12-14-2015 , 04:19 AM

#12094

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete

It is, but how much is your therapist bill?

Bout $100/hour so at least 1/3 of profits.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZuneIt

Where did you play?
Were you runnin' hot?
I played last night & won $535 in less than 3 hours. I call that 'High Variance' if there is such a thing.
Targets left & so did I.

Played east coast. Ran average to mediocre. Played my typical game - tight preflop hand selection and value betting into oblivion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

Yah it's making me feel a my better about quitting my job next year to travel, knowing when I get back I have a "job" lined up until I figure out what to do next in life. I've ran $30 an hour over a 500 hour sample size at 1/2 but think I could do $40 if I really put my mind to it. Mixing in 1/3 is just gravy - that game is equally if not more so ridiculous. Kinda makes me think most 2/5 players are only playing due to ego problems.

Quote

12-14-2015 , 04:52 AM

#12095

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnybuz

Played east coast. Ran average to mediocre. Played my typical game - tight preflop hand selection and value betting into oblivion.

Is this too tight for o/r? 10 handed:
UTG: 77+ ATs+ AJo+ T9s+ 9.35% range

UTG+1 & 2: add 66, 87s, KQo. 10.7% range

UTG+3: add 55 KJs 11.5% range

UTG+4: add 33/44 65s/76s; J9s+; KTs+ 13.9% range

UTG+5: [Hijack] add 22; 54s; 75s; A5s/A7s+ 17.9% range

CO: add A2s+; ATo; K6s+; KJo; Q7s+; QJo; J8s+; 64s; 23.7% range

Button: add: K2s+; Q2s+; J5s+; T6s+ 74s+ 53s+; 43s+ A2o+; K7o+, Q9o+; J9o+; T8o+; 98o; 87o; 47.5% range.

These ranges come from different sources. However, it's rare that's it's folded to me in the CO or later. The bulk of good play pre is knowing your V's range in front of you, wouldn't you say?

Quote

12-14-2015 , 05:03 AM

#12096

jaicee5

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 676

IMO I prefer the 15/25/35 guideline with marginal hands. Stakes dependent of course, but I've found this to be a very profitable preflop range

Quote

12-14-2015 , 05:40 AM

#12097

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaicee5

IMO I prefer the 15/25/35 guideline with marginal hands. Stakes dependent of course, but I've found this to be a very profitable preflop range

are you talkin' about an expectation of makin' 15x your preflop investment for PPs; 25x for suited connectors & 35x for 1gap SCs?

I'm talking about an o/r range where everyone has folded to you preflop.

Quote

12-14-2015 , 05:55 AM

#12098

jaicee5

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 676

Oh yeah whoops my bad misread

Quote

12-14-2015 , 10:04 AM

#12099

day'n'night

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,523

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZuneIt

Either you are missing a position or this is 9handed. I think its good to have a set range of opening hands and yours seem pretty solid. However it is important to be able to adapt to certain table dynamics and tweek these ranges ingame.