Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-10-2015, 02:55 PM   #12076
kekeeke
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,191
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Love2Win View Post
I managed to get 2 days a week working for a guy I player with maybe 8 or 9 times over the last few years. It has meant that I have my monthly bills covered by zero variance income, and my lifestyle is much better than when poker was my only form of income
This is what I'm gonna do in 2016 also.

What do you do if you don't mind me asking? Finding a part time job that pays well and won't ask you to work week ends is actually very hard.
kekeeke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2015, 03:40 PM   #12077
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,093
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ohmyrage View Post
I took some shots at 5/T(15 hours worth) recently that haven't gone well(-$1800). The losses there have made me break even over 120 hours of total play(mostly 1/2+2/5)
It has hurt motivation that I have put in so much time and haven't trended up, even if it is normal variance, the human feeling of "loss" can be demotivating.
I feel the same way man. I tend to be a little results oriented and hate looking back over X number of hours that I've been break even. My BR keeps hitting new highs followed by returning to periods I was at a month ago which is a morale killer.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2015, 03:53 PM   #12078
kookiemonster
old hand
 
kookiemonster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: where the milk and honey flows
Posts: 1,653
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Spoiler:


You know JB, I’m glad you’re here because I wanted to talk to you. I know how you get depressed about your job and all, and I just wanted you to know that I know how you feel. I used to be the same way.


Maybe I didn’t whine as much, but I bet I hated my job even more than you, and I’ve been doing it for over thirty years!


Just remember, if you hang in there long enough, good things can happen in this world. I mean, look at me.
kookiemonster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2015, 05:30 PM   #12079
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@kookiemonster: I take it you'll be sittin' out from poker for awhile......that is, unless you can get seat 2/3 or 8/9 with no obese players on either side you.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 11:10 AM   #12080
Love2Win
stranger
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 14
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke View Post
This is what I'm gonna do in 2016 also.

What do you do if you don't mind me asking? Finding a part time job that pays well and won't ask you to work week ends is actually very hard.
I agree, it is hard to find this. I'm an experienced accountant, but decided I couldn't face doing it full time about 5 years ago. Money isn't the be all and end all!!
Love2Win is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 06:59 PM   #12081
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,792
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Any idea what standard deviations for win rates should equal over a decent sample?

For example, if a player wins $10, or 5bb, per hour at 1/2, what is an approximate range of the standard deviation over a 500-750 hour sample?
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 07:14 PM   #12082
Aleksei
adept
 
Aleksei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Inside your mom
Posts: 1,116
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

50-200bb/hr, depending on how laggy their style is.

I think a normal St. Dev. is about 100bb/hr.
Aleksei is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 07:21 PM   #12083
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I feel like 50bb/hr std is unheard of
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 07:24 PM   #12084
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,792
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, I mean, I get this sample isn't huge, but a std of 10x the mean seems strange.
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 07:35 PM   #12085
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nah not really. Throw in a few decent losing sessions and it's standard.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 07:42 PM   #12086
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,792
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wow ok, so 50-200 bb for 500-750 hours. What about when your winrate stabilizes/converges? Maybe after 5k hours?
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 08:02 PM   #12087
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

By 5000 hours you've probably quit poker.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2015, 08:20 PM   #12088
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,040
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
By 3.5 hours I probably should've quit poker.

Fyp
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 06:46 PM   #12089
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,671
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
Wow ok, so 50-200 bb for 500-750 hours. What about when your winrate stabilizes/converges? Maybe after 5k hours?

50-200 bb per hour. The standard deviation on a 500 hour sample is sqrt(500) * stdev per hour.

To say when it converges just depends on what you considered "coverged". i.e. 95% confidence in +/- 1 bb / hr, etc.

Long story short... Your live WR will never converge. You and the game will change before you reach any appreciable convergence.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 07:06 PM   #12090
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,792
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
50-200 bb per hour. The standard deviation on a 500 hour sample is sqrt(500) * stdev per hour.

To say when it converges just depends on what you considered "coverged". i.e. 95% confidence in +/- 1 bb / hr, etc.

Long story short... Your live WR will never converge. You and the game will change before you reach any appreciable convergence.
Thanks, bip. Yes, I know it never will actually converge, but I do know a good/bad week or month won't have a massive effect after playing a few thousand hours, but could affect things considerably in a smaller sample.

And thanks for pointing out that the std is per hour. I was thinking in those terms but realize it wouldn't be obvious to a reader.
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 07:17 PM   #12091
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,671
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I had a picture ITT a few months back that showed the WR confidence vs hours curve
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 07:24 PM   #12092
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 07:43 PM   #12093
cannabusto
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,792
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I had a picture ITT a few months back that showed the WR confidence vs hours curve
Found it. Thanks again.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.
Ha, no big downswing, just curious. Got drug and alcohol on hand for the downswings though so no worries.
cannabusto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2015, 07:46 PM   #12094
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,906
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Pretty sure when you're going through 10+ BI downswing, no amount of data would make you feel better.

Try drug or alcohol.
Lol. 100% agreement although I think both are probably needed
feel wrath is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 02:41 AM   #12095
daniel9861
veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,381
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does anyone care to see online giraffes or nah?
daniel9861 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 03:11 AM   #12096
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,093
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 03:23 AM   #12097
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It is, but how much is your therapist bill?
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 03:45 AM   #12098
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.
Where did you play?
Were you runnin' hot?
I played last night & won $535 in less than 3 hours. I call that 'High Variance' if there is such a thing.
Targets left & so did I.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 03:47 AM   #12099
feel wrath
The Situation
 
feel wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,906
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Played 1/2 tonight for a trip down memory lane and I am 100% positive $50,000/year near variance free with two weeks vacation is possible playing 40 hours per week.
Playing 2/3 for a living is my extreme back up plan for if my life really goes to **** and I have no other options to feed my family. Think 30 an hour is definitely possible but cannot imagine not hating going to work every day after 6 months
feel wrath is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2015, 04:19 AM   #12100
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,093
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
It is, but how much is your therapist bill?
Bout $100/hour so at least 1/3 of profits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Where did you play?
Were you runnin' hot?
I played last night & won $535 in less than 3 hours. I call that 'High Variance' if there is such a thing.
Targets left & so did I.
Played east coast. Ran average to mediocre. Played my typical game - tight preflop hand selection and value betting into oblivion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Playing 2/3 for a living is my extreme back up plan for if my life really goes to **** and I have no other options to feed my family. Think 30 an hour is definitely possible but cannot imagine not hating going to work every day after 6 months
Yah it's making me feel a my better about quitting my job next year to travel, knowing when I get back I have a "job" lined up until I figure out what to do next in life. I've ran $30 an hour over a 500 hour sample size at 1/2 but think I could do $40 if I really put my mind to it. Mixing in 1/3 is just gravy - that game is equally if not more so ridiculous. Kinda makes me think most 2/5 players are only playing due to ego problems.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive