Not nececcarily true at all.

If you buy in for 1-2k chances are you're going to set a cap for yourself at only losing X amount (most would set it lower then 6k if taking a shot in a game).

Once you have 8k on the table, maybe you're more willing to actually use that money and put it in play instead of always getting your money in good -- but even then, you wouldn't be necessarily "losing 6k" in a session if you went from 8k back down to 2k, since I'm assuming we're talking about net loss for the session.

Pretty shocking and unreasonable thing for a pro player to be saying...

Ya, that's true enough (I almost modified my original post).

I'm simply saying that while it is easy to feel good about erasing a downswing with one single run-good higher stakes session, you obviously have to be very aware that it is possible something similar (although perhaps not at the same magnitude if stop losses / maximum BIs at level are reached) can happen in the opposite direction.

I mean, I know kookie's "1/2" game is stupid deep, but it still seems like quite a jump to go from 1/2 to 5/T, no?

GjustbecarefulisallI'msayingG

No you don't.

Just ask squid. I am sure the thought of losing 10k a month has never crossed his mind and yet he has won 10k in many months.

#yetanotherfallacy

Man caution that it's possible to lose big money at 5/T and OP should make sure he can handle it BR-wise / mentally, gets ripped for it.

GstandardG

Why? Money isn't everything for the professional poker player. If the added stress outweighs the additional money earned, why put yourself in that position?

Contrary to popular belief, there's a lot of merit on psychological EV, I watched a RunItOnce vid that perfectly stated things I was already considering.

Basically, you control all your decisions and can assign them a relative value -- everything is an effective tradeoff

Let's say your in a pretty juicy game and it's 2-3am, you're up a buyin or two. You want to stay. If you stay and play till 4-5am and end up breaking even for the night, it might ruin your mood and you'll be exhausted, thus you decide youre not going to take a day off. Even though staying is theoretically +EV, it is actually a losing decision because unless your edge is absolutely massive, your going to be marginally winning more in this spot, and then when you lose/breakeven for the last few hours, you end up losing value for an entire session the day after.

Similarly, if a player isn't able to play his A game in stakes where the money effects his mental state too significantly, then its correct for him to play where he doesn't see the money, as, well.. money.

Obviously the goal of the professional is to eliminate/reduce these external factors as much as possible to maximize ones WR, but we're all human and its absurd to say that you shouldn't consider it in your decision making.

Watch the video. Bart explains that 10/20 is just a really bad atmosphere. Basically, 10/20 is a stale, rarefied elite that sits there and bumhunts rich chumps and shot-takers, like it's 25/50 at Stars.

So while the good players stay at 10/20 because they refuse to mix with the riff-raff at 5/10, there aren't that many good players at 5/10 and it's easy pickings. Much better working environment.

Plus: mathematically, the more variance you have the more money you need to stash to compensate -- so that extra 25% might COST him disposable money if it's doubling or tripling his variance.

It's not nearly as simple as "more money = more gooder."

Nothing like that. Only playing bigger if the game is very soft. Still got some big leaks to get rid of. I'm sufficiently selfaware to know my winnings come from stacking fish, not from outplaying mediocre players.

Yeah. It would be nice to see the better posters shot taking and posting more strat though.

Thanks!

Actually only bought in for $1K, but then added on to cover the fish. If I got stacked I probably would have RTM'd to $1/2...so a stop loss of $2-3K.

Strangely enough at the bigger stakes the absolute sizing of the bets never really seems to faze me. It is the assessment of what absolute sizing means to the other players that I find tricky.

I was going to post a couple of $5/10 hands here but decided not to bother since, last time, Venice locked them all.

It smacks a bit of self-deception.

-"I'm not rolled for that game" = completely reasonable
-"I'm not a significant winner in that game unless the line-up is particularly soft [and I'm not trying to become one]" = completely reasonable
-"I'm totally a winner in that game but it's too swingy" = eh, really? Your job is literally taking +EV gambles for money and you have a big pile of money specifically set aside in case you lose some gambles.

When your bb/hour diminishes substantially by moving up and your bb variance increases, that actually increases your risk of ruin substantially. Higher ROR = more money needed to feed the bankroll = less you can use.

Knowing the mechanics of this is part and parcel of being a full time pro.

And let's be honest -- Bart is not one of the best players in the world. He's a savant at super-exploiting weak players, and that's what he teaches.

KookieMonster, why don't you post some in MHSFR

I've read other pro players talk about making the same decision and they cite two main arguments, both of which appear logical and not self deceiving to me

- Their edge is smaller and the game is way bigger so it increases variance significantly and they don't want to subject themselves to it for an extra $xx per hour

- They have to concentrate far harder to play optimally at that level, which makes it a load more effort, which means they can't get as many hours in vs playing at a lower level where they can play closer to autopilot

This.

Especially since I doubt that actually playing poker is a significant part of his income anymore. The stress is just not worth it.

I took some shots at 5/T(15 hours worth) recently that haven't gone well(-$1800). The losses there have made me break even over 120 hours of total play(mostly 1/2+2/5)
It has hurt motivation that I have put in so much time and haven't trended up, even if it is normal variance, the human feeling of "loss" can be demotivating.

Ohmyrange - you are not breakeven, you are +120hrs of playing poker.

Completely the right way to look at it! Put in the work and the results shall come

^ that is half of it. The other half is, though you might forget after a tough session, you love playing poker.

I managed to get 2 days a week working for a guy I player with maybe 8 or 9 times over the last few years. It has meant that I have my monthly bills covered by zero variance income, and my lifestyle is much better than when poker was my only form of income

This is what I'm gonna do in 2016 also.

What do you do if you don't mind me asking? Finding a part time job that pays well and won't ask you to work week ends is actually very hard.

I feel the same way man. I tend to be a little results oriented and hate looking back over X number of hours that I've been break even. My BR keeps hitting new highs followed by returning to periods I was at a month ago which is a morale killer.

You know JB, I’m glad you’re here because I wanted to talk to you. I know how you get depressed about your job and all, and I just wanted you to know that I know how you feel. I used to be the same way.


Maybe I didn’t whine as much, but I bet I hated my job even more than you, and I’ve been doing it for over thirty years!


Just remember, if you hang in there long enough, good things can happen in this world. I mean, look at me.

@kookiemonster: I take it you'll be sittin' out from poker for awhile......that is, unless you can get seat 2/3 or 8/9 with no obese players on either side you.

I agree, it is hard to find this. I'm an experienced accountant, but decided I couldn't face doing it full time about 5 years ago. Money isn't the be all and end all!!

Any idea what standard deviations for win rates should equal over a decent sample?

For example, if a player wins $10, or 5bb, per hour at 1/2, what is an approximate range of the standard deviation over a 500-750 hour sample?