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Old 12-08-2015, 09:37 AM   #12051
greedisgood1
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Im not going to get into the whole, "how much do you need to retire" mental masturbation but I would say two things

1) I think financial pundits usually recommend an amount that is unnecessary

2) most people under-save for their own retirement
Maybe Financial pundits know people under-save, and have it allready calculated in?

And still , most people manage to to go broke before they die. Maybe oversaving a little isn't that bad, knowing when you're old you are atleast leaving something for your children or charity. Maybe you'll meet a hot grandma who undersaved her entire life, now you aren't in rough shape to pay for 2
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Old 12-08-2015, 09:42 AM   #12052
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Is the only downside to proper shottaking is that it slightly increases your variance? tks
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Old 12-08-2015, 11:30 AM   #12053
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Cashed out for ~$8200 @ $5/10. In for $2K. My biggest session win by a wide margin. Downswing forgotten.
Sweetness is livin' the dream!😎
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Old 12-08-2015, 01:05 PM   #12054
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Cashed out for ~$8200 @ $5/10. In for $2K. My biggest session win by a wide margin. Downswing forgotten.
Congrats kookie!

Not to be a downer, but I'm assuming if you can win $6K in a session that you can also possibly lose $6K in a session. Are you able to handle that BR-wise, and perhaps even more importantly, mentally?

Gmakesureyou'replayingatthecorrectstakes,imoG
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Old 12-08-2015, 01:17 PM   #12055
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Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
Is the only downside to proper shottaking is that it slightly increases your variance? tks
Bart Hansen said that he prefers 5/T NL over T/20 at commerce

While his winrate would increase by 25% IIRC, his variance would also increase 3-4x. Since more variance = more stress he plays lower.

heres the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6dANoJvEys
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Old 12-08-2015, 01:33 PM   #12056
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Is the only downside to proper shottaking is that it slightly increases your variance? tks
not sure why it would be slightly
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:09 PM   #12057
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Congrats kookie!

Not to be a downer, but I'm assuming if you can win $6K in a session that you can also possibly lose $6K in a session. Are you able to handle that BR-wise, and perhaps even more importantly, mentally?

Gmakesureyou'replayingatthecorrectstakes,imoG
Not nececcarily true at all.

If you buy in for 1-2k chances are you're going to set a cap for yourself at only losing X amount (most would set it lower then 6k if taking a shot in a game).

Once you have 8k on the table, maybe you're more willing to actually use that money and put it in play instead of always getting your money in good -- but even then, you wouldn't be necessarily "losing 6k" in a session if you went from 8k back down to 2k, since I'm assuming we're talking about net loss for the session.
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:16 PM   #12058
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Originally Posted by BenzY View Post
Bart Hansen said that he prefers 5/T NL over T/20 at commerce

While his winrate would increase by 25% IIRC, his variance would also increase 3-4x. Since more variance = more stress he plays lower.

heres the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6dANoJvEys
Pretty shocking and unreasonable thing for a pro player to be saying...
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:20 PM   #12059
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Not nececcarily true at all.

If you buy in for 1-2k chances are you're going to set a cap for yourself at only losing X amount (most would set it lower then 6k if taking a shot in a game).

Once you have 8k on the table, maybe you're more willing to actually use that money and put it in play instead of always getting your money in good -- but even then, you wouldn't be necessarily "losing 6k" in a session if you went from 8k back down to 2k, since I'm assuming we're talking about net loss for the session.
Ya, that's true enough (I almost modified my original post).

I'm simply saying that while it is easy to feel good about erasing a downswing with one single run-good higher stakes session, you obviously have to be very aware that it is possible something similar (although perhaps not at the same magnitude if stop losses / maximum BIs at level are reached) can happen in the opposite direction.

I mean, I know kookie's "1/2" game is stupid deep, but it still seems like quite a jump to go from 1/2 to 5/T, no?

GjustbecarefulisallI'msayingG
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:23 PM   #12060
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm simply saying that while it is easy to feel good about erasing a downswing with one single run-good higher stakes session, you obviously have to be very aware that it is possible something similar (although perhaps not at the same magnitude if stop losses / maximum BIs at level are reached) can happen in the opposite direction.
No you don't.

Just ask squid. I am sure the thought of losing 10k a month has never crossed his mind and yet he has won 10k in many months.

#yetanotherfallacy
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:28 PM   #12061
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Man caution that it's possible to lose big money at 5/T and OP should make sure he can handle it BR-wise / mentally, gets ripped for it.

GstandardG
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Old 12-08-2015, 02:43 PM   #12062
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
Pretty shocking and unreasonable thing for a pro player to be saying...
Why? Money isn't everything for the professional poker player. If the added stress outweighs the additional money earned, why put yourself in that position?
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Old 12-08-2015, 03:00 PM   #12063
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Contrary to popular belief, there's a lot of merit on psychological EV, I watched a RunItOnce vid that perfectly stated things I was already considering.

Basically, you control all your decisions and can assign them a relative value -- everything is an effective tradeoff

Let's say your in a pretty juicy game and it's 2-3am, you're up a buyin or two. You want to stay. If you stay and play till 4-5am and end up breaking even for the night, it might ruin your mood and you'll be exhausted, thus you decide youre not going to take a day off. Even though staying is theoretically +EV, it is actually a losing decision because unless your edge is absolutely massive, your going to be marginally winning more in this spot, and then when you lose/breakeven for the last few hours, you end up losing value for an entire session the day after.

Similarly, if a player isn't able to play his A game in stakes where the money effects his mental state too significantly, then its correct for him to play where he doesn't see the money, as, well.. money.

Obviously the goal of the professional is to eliminate/reduce these external factors as much as possible to maximize ones WR, but we're all human and its absurd to say that you shouldn't consider it in your decision making.
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Old 12-08-2015, 05:36 PM   #12064
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
Pretty shocking and unreasonable thing for a pro player to be saying...
Watch the video. Bart explains that 10/20 is just a really bad atmosphere. Basically, 10/20 is a stale, rarefied elite that sits there and bumhunts rich chumps and shot-takers, like it's 25/50 at Stars.

So while the good players stay at 10/20 because they refuse to mix with the riff-raff at 5/10, there aren't that many good players at 5/10 and it's easy pickings. Much better working environment.

Plus: mathematically, the more variance you have the more money you need to stash to compensate -- so that extra 25% might COST him disposable money if it's doubling or tripling his variance.

It's not nearly as simple as "more money = more gooder."
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:04 PM   #12065
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Nice job. I remember the first time that I had a big win at 5/10 NL.. It was a pretty awesome feeling. Hope you have many more big wins at 5/10 NL+ in the future.

Are you moving up permanently to 5/10 NL now?
Nothing like that. Only playing bigger if the game is very soft. Still got some big leaks to get rid of. I'm sufficiently selfaware to know my winnings come from stacking fish, not from outplaying mediocre players.

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BOOM! Couldn't have happened to a better poster!
Yeah. It would be nice to see the better posters shot taking and posting more strat though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Congrats Kookie!...
Thanks!

Actually only bought in for $1K, but then added on to cover the fish. If I got stacked I probably would have RTM'd to $1/2...so a stop loss of $2-3K.

Strangely enough at the bigger stakes the absolute sizing of the bets never really seems to faze me. It is the assessment of what absolute sizing means to the other players that I find tricky.

I was going to post a couple of $5/10 hands here but decided not to bother since, last time, Venice locked them all.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 12-08-2015 at 06:12 PM.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:15 PM   #12066
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Originally Posted by Aleksei View Post
Watch the video. Bart explains that 10/20 is just a really bad atmosphere. Basically, 10/20 is a stale, rarefied elite that sits there and bumhunts rich chumps and shot-takers, like it's 25/50 at Stars.

So while the good players stay at 10/20 because they refuse to mix with the riff-raff at 5/10, there aren't that many good players at 5/10 and it's easy pickings. Much better working environment.

Plus: mathematically, the more variance you have the more money you need to stash to compensate -- so that extra 25% might COST him disposable money if it's doubling or tripling his variance.

It's not nearly as simple as "more money = more gooder."
It smacks a bit of self-deception.

-"I'm not rolled for that game" = completely reasonable
-"I'm not a significant winner in that game unless the line-up is particularly soft [and I'm not trying to become one]" = completely reasonable
-"I'm totally a winner in that game but it's too swingy" = eh, really? Your job is literally taking +EV gambles for money and you have a big pile of money specifically set aside in case you lose some gambles.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:34 PM   #12067
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

When your bb/hour diminishes substantially by moving up and your bb variance increases, that actually increases your risk of ruin substantially. Higher ROR = more money needed to feed the bankroll = less you can use.

Knowing the mechanics of this is part and parcel of being a full time pro.

And let's be honest -- Bart is not one of the best players in the world. He's a savant at super-exploiting weak players, and that's what he teaches.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:50 PM   #12068
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KookieMonster, why don't you post some in MHSFR
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Old 12-08-2015, 08:33 PM   #12069
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
It smacks a bit of self-deception.

-"I'm not rolled for that game" = completely reasonable
-"I'm not a significant winner in that game unless the line-up is particularly soft [and I'm not trying to become one]" = completely reasonable
-"I'm totally a winner in that game but it's too swingy" = eh, really? Your job is literally taking +EV gambles for money and you have a big pile of money specifically set aside in case you lose some gambles.
I've read other pro players talk about making the same decision and they cite two main arguments, both of which appear logical and not self deceiving to me

- Their edge is smaller and the game is way bigger so it increases variance significantly and they don't want to subject themselves to it for an extra $xx per hour

- They have to concentrate far harder to play optimally at that level, which makes it a load more effort, which means they can't get as many hours in vs playing at a lower level where they can play closer to autopilot
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Old 12-08-2015, 09:03 PM   #12070
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Why? Money isn't everything for the professional poker player. If the added stress outweighs the additional money earned, why put yourself in that position?
This.

Especially since I doubt that actually playing poker is a significant part of his income anymore. The stress is just not worth it.
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Old 12-09-2015, 06:26 PM   #12071
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I took some shots at 5/T(15 hours worth) recently that haven't gone well(-$1800). The losses there have made me break even over 120 hours of total play(mostly 1/2+2/5)
It has hurt motivation that I have put in so much time and haven't trended up, even if it is normal variance, the human feeling of "loss" can be demotivating.
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Old 12-09-2015, 08:57 PM   #12072
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Ohmyrange - you are not breakeven, you are +120hrs of playing poker.
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Old 12-09-2015, 09:41 PM   #12073
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Ohmyrange - you are not breakeven, you are +120hrs of playing poker.
Completely the right way to look at it! Put in the work and the results shall come
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Old 12-10-2015, 06:38 AM   #12074
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^ that is half of it. The other half is, though you might forget after a tough session, you love playing poker.
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Old 12-10-2015, 02:34 PM   #12075
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The employment gap is also potentially not really a problem. If you actually socialize at the table (as opposed to sitting quietly with headphones on), you will likely meet some reasonably successful people ... at least some will be in a position to employ you, or recommend you to someone that will just because you're friends with so-and-so.
I managed to get 2 days a week working for a guy I player with maybe 8 or 9 times over the last few years. It has meant that I have my monthly bills covered by zero variance income, and my lifestyle is much better than when poker was my only form of income
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