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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

09-22-2015 , 02:11 PM
LOL green you make it sound like 5/10 is rocket science.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen
also I want to weigh in on the reg thing because I got into this argument the other day: among my friends reg is another name for a pro, rec or regfish is a name for someone who plays all the time, special guest is whale, old guy is another word for guy who is regular but not pro

the reason we use reg as pro and not for other people is that when you are giving hand histories usually the subject is a fish or weaker player so you try to be as specific as possible to make your decisions clearer where as most regs are A) similar enough in play style unless otherwise stated B) probably good enough to where you have to assume the hands you have in your sample aren't enough to be able to call them anything but reg.

in the same way that it's better to play vacuum poker verses good players and exploit bad ones
Basically, don't play with people better than you and play with people worse than you?

Who can argue against that? Certainly not me.

It was never the argument, FWIW.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Yep, whatever you win in session #1 divide by hours spent = your hourly from that point forward until end of time.
Did you mean to quote a different post there?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
Did you mean to quote a different post there?
What I was trying to say is that people want you to believe that you can autopilot and crush a game with some basic rule of thumbs...and it's completely FOS in today's game.

Perhaps there is a place with player pool so large that players could afford to play really bad and swap chips for a very long time while not noticing that there are players who are just printing money...

I would like to be there one day, and I am pretty certain that if such place exist, crushers would not be bragging about it.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Is there a graph that exists that extrapolates live win rate decay (over a reasonable sample) as you move up in limits?

I know it's entirely player dependent and how much you choose to improve as a player, but for long-term planning purposes, it'd be nice to know what is reasonably attainable assuming you continue to work at your craft?

Something like the following


The system is not that simple to model as such ^
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)
Or it's because you're not good enough to identify how to win and you don't see how well the player in question is folding because his cards are mucked.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
500bb with just a pair is insanely high variance.

Anyhow, everyone in this forum wants to believe that LLSNL is an ATM, and that's just not true.

Yes, it is LITERALLY an ATM. You seem so cynical about everything I doubt you even play poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:34 PM
And FWIW, I think true crushers would be doing a lot to look average.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oceanfrog
Yes, it is LITERALLY an ATM. You seem so cynical about everything I doubt you even play poker.
Or maybe I am the ONLY one who actually plays poker.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Basically, don't play with people better than you and play with people worse than you?

Who can argue against that? Certainly not me.

It was never the argument, FWIW.
literally never said anything about winning or losing or anything at all in this post.

I know you're a troll and you feed on attention but that post is about the names you give people and why not the people you should play against.

you spend 80% of your time on these forums either deliberately misunderstanding people to upset them or misunderstanding people because you are stupid and I can't decide which one is more sad.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Ummm...what?

Lots of rambling, but I don't actually see any comprehensible argument to how it isn't better to move up if WR remains relatively constant and BR is not an issue.

Please clarify.
It's the human element. Stress. Change. Irrational fear. Etc.

Human beings are not +EV calculators.

Ironically your posts are full of rambling and the posts you're replying to are cohesive.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:42 PM
Well, at least I know I am not educating fish in the pool.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Well, at least I know I am not educating fish in the pool.
If we apply your general attitude-approach of "so obviously logical..." to yourself, whose location is argueland and occupation is professional arguer, it's implicitly clear that you don't have a talent for arguing, as a real arguing crusher would never put that in their public bio. If Immanuel Kant were alive and a member on 2p2, would your bio be a part of his range? I think not. I also think he wouldn't have a million posts in such a short window as you do.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 02:52 PM
Once a fish told me that he noticed that I have been playing better...

It literally ruined my week.

If fish is telling me that I am doing something right, does that mean I am doing something wrong?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 03:54 PM
Playing 40hrs of live poker every week is insane.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
And FWIW, I think true crushers would be doing a lot to look average.
Elaborate please.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
Playing 40hrs of live poker every week is insane.




Elaborate please.
See, this is why RP posts the way he does, and it comes off as trolling. Is it really that difficult to figure out why a true crusher would act average?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 03:56 PM
Read DGAF.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
See, this is why RP posts the way he does, and it comes off as trolling. Is it really that difficult to figure out why a true crusher would act average?
Now you're trolling me.

How do you hide the fact that you are a winning player?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:16 PM
So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:



That is a plot of a fake 10bb/hr WR line overlayed on the range of possible results of a +2bb/hr player.

So if 100 meh slight winners set off to track results at once.

At 100 hours, one or two dozen of these meh regs would report a 10bb+/hr winrate. And they would be on this forum and in this thread convinced that they and everyone they know crushes LLSNL

By 200 hours, we are down to a handful, but still significant number of "fake crushers"

By 500 hours, the heaters are over and we may only have one fake crusher left.

By 1000 hours, they are extinct.

The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.

There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bip!
So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:



That is a plot of a fake 10bb/hr WR line overlayed on the range of possible results of a +2bb/hr player.

So if 100 meh slight winners set off to track results at once.

At 100 hours, one or two dozen of these meh regs would report a 10bb+/hr winrate. And they would be on this forum and in this thread convinced that they and everyone they know crushes LLSNL

By 200 hours, we are down to a handful, but still significant number of "fake crushers"

By 500 hours, the heaters are over and we may only have one fake crusher left.

By 1000 hours, they are extinct.

The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.


There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
bolded is hot fire truth


one of the best posts in this thread, I see that lost stats or just started tracking thing all the time

that being said





HEATERRRRRRRRR
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:36 PM
3500 hours at $1/2 NL. 3.5BB/hr winner total. Every session except 1 that I lost my notesheet for on the way back from Vegas, since July 2008. Recent results are a bit better, but again "meh" sample size.

It's not the size of your winrate that matters, it's how you use it, right? Or was it "it's how you use your tongue?"
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:37 PM
I'm at 14bb/hour at 413 hours. Looks like I'm the 1 in 24 fake crushers to still be standing guys.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:40 PM
20k posts+, 0 perm ban.

Now that's a brag.

Anyhow, been wanting to brag, but I haven't met anyone worth bragging to.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
Now you're trolling me.

How do you hide the fact that you are a winning player?
Don't make a big deal about it. Don't talk strategy at the table. I make a point of loudly berating the hell out of my dealer friends when they deal me a loser, but never make a big deal about a winner. Never talk about how much you're up. If someone asks how much you're up since you're on a big stack, tell them that you're in for most of it already anyway.

Yea, an observant reg might notice you cashing out a lot often, or not re-buying. But many don't.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-22-2015 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
20k posts+, 0 perm ban.

Now that's a brag.

Anyhow, been wanting to brag, but I haven't met anyone worth bragging to.

Hurts. .. really hurts man
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote

      
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