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Old 09-22-2015, 02:04 PM   #10726
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)

People move up - but I would say it is a mixed bag of motivations and results before moving up. (i.e. Fish move up when they get more comfortable or go on a short heater - lots never drop back)

There are a decent # of people who play 1000+ hrs of LLSNL over a year or two... few track results, very few win, and there are very rare birds winning 10bb/hr +

Despite 2/5 being a tougher limit, there are probably more 10bb/hr winners in that game than 1/3 & 1/2.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:05 PM   #10727
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
it's more complicated than that
I totally agree...

...but, there are cases where it is a simple as there are no other games/stakes in that market.

Gforinstance,myroomoffers1/3NLandthat'stheonlycashgamegoing99.9%ofthetimeG
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:06 PM   #10728
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Oh no, there might be a new buzz description being created in this forum: TAG autopilot.

Whoever thinks that such type exist is oblivious.
LOL I didn't create the term KM used it. I'm doing my best to work with that description, just like I do to work with the descriptions given in strat threads like "He's a standard TAG done right: Limps UTG". I take TAG autopilot to mean a very rigid preflop range, won't 3bet light, will bet/fold relentlessly, etc... He's not going to think on an extraordinary high level but he knows the basics. I'm thinking he plays something like an online multi tabler.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:08 PM   #10729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ummm...what?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
it's more complicated than that

1) winrates are not linear or even close to it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
a 10bb/h winner at 2/5 might only be able to make a 3bb winrate in a typical 5/10 player pool which actually means a lower winrate with a much higher risk of ruin within a bankroll and much higher variance
How does winrate not being linear has anything to do with someone who do not have the same winrate in different stakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
2) it isn't always worth it to move up due to money allocation

a proper 2/5 roll with living expenses is around 20k at the basement assuming around a 7 or more bb/h edge and 120 hours of work a month with expenses totaling around 1k. this gives a very low change or ruin and a good buffer for savings.
$35 x 120 - 1000 = $3200.

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in order to create the same model for a 5/10 player due to the deeper buy ins, higher variance and generally higher cost of living due to the economy of scales you notice the amount of money you need set aside to make 8bb at 5/10 is like 60k, much much higher, and the risk of ruin (having to move down) is much higher. factor in that the games don't always run and a lot of pros don't find it worth the financial tie ups or stress to move up at all.

in the right market an absolute crusher makes 10-13bbs at 2/5, a lot of such guys are fine with no risk of going broke and a stress free 4-6k a month.
Lots of rambling, but I don't actually see any comprehensible argument to how it isn't better to move up if WR remains relatively constant and BR is not an issue.

Please clarify.


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Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
also about the 1000 hours people move up thing 1000 hours even at 50 an hour is still only 50k and thats assuming no expenses, so call it 35k and that isn't exactly a 5/10 roll
Stop using random numbers to fill in variables then make very straight forward conclusions off such result.

There are variables because...wide range of scenarios.

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Originally Posted by JamesGreen View Post
on top of that the skill sets that make a good 5/10 winner are so different that the learning curve can be so expensive/sometimes impossible that a lot of guys don't ever try, which might be obvious but it's another thing to consider.
So now the argument is that 2/5 player may not win as much moving up, hence one shouldn't move up?

You could just lead with that and end all discussion.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:09 PM   #10730
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Despite 2/5 being a tougher limit, there are probably more 10bb/hr winners in that game than 1/3 & 1/2.
Oh absolutely. People who are motivated enough to beat a level for 10bb/hr would not be doing it for $20/hr.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:11 PM   #10731
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LOL I didn't create the term KM used it. I'm doing my best to work with that description, just like I do to work with the descriptions given in strat threads like "He's a standard TAG done right: Limps UTG". I take TAG autopilot to mean a very rigid preflop range, won't 3bet light, will bet/fold relentlessly, etc... He's not going to think on an extraordinary high level but he knows the basics. I'm thinking he plays something like an online multi tabler.
Yep, whatever you win in session #1 divide by hours spent = your hourly from that point forward until end of time.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:11 PM   #10732
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LOL green you make it sound like 5/10 is rocket science.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:12 PM   #10733
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also I want to weigh in on the reg thing because I got into this argument the other day: among my friends reg is another name for a pro, rec or regfish is a name for someone who plays all the time, special guest is whale, old guy is another word for guy who is regular but not pro

the reason we use reg as pro and not for other people is that when you are giving hand histories usually the subject is a fish or weaker player so you try to be as specific as possible to make your decisions clearer where as most regs are A) similar enough in play style unless otherwise stated B) probably good enough to where you have to assume the hands you have in your sample aren't enough to be able to call them anything but reg.

in the same way that it's better to play vacuum poker verses good players and exploit bad ones
Basically, don't play with people better than you and play with people worse than you?

Who can argue against that? Certainly not me.

It was never the argument, FWIW.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:13 PM   #10734
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Yep, whatever you win in session #1 divide by hours spent = your hourly from that point forward until end of time.
Did you mean to quote a different post there?
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:16 PM   #10735
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
Did you mean to quote a different post there?
What I was trying to say is that people want you to believe that you can autopilot and crush a game with some basic rule of thumbs...and it's completely FOS in today's game.

Perhaps there is a place with player pool so large that players could afford to play really bad and swap chips for a very long time while not noticing that there are players who are just printing money...

I would like to be there one day, and I am pretty certain that if such place exist, crushers would not be bragging about it.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:26 PM   #10736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Is there a graph that exists that extrapolates live win rate decay (over a reasonable sample) as you move up in limits?

I know it's entirely player dependent and how much you choose to improve as a player, but for long-term planning purposes, it'd be nice to know what is reasonably attainable assuming you continue to work at your craft?

Something like the following


The system is not that simple to model as such ^
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:31 PM   #10737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I would think the reason you don't see 10 BB/hr winners over 1000 hours is because people running 10+ are moving up before they hit 1000 hours (at least at 1/2 or 1/3)
Or it's because you're not good enough to identify how to win and you don't see how well the player in question is folding because his cards are mucked.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:34 PM   #10738
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
500bb with just a pair is insanely high variance.

Anyhow, everyone in this forum wants to believe that LLSNL is an ATM, and that's just not true.

Yes, it is LITERALLY an ATM. You seem so cynical about everything I doubt you even play poker.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:34 PM   #10739
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And FWIW, I think true crushers would be doing a lot to look average.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:35 PM   #10740
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Yes, it is LITERALLY an ATM. You seem so cynical about everything I doubt you even play poker.
Or maybe I am the ONLY one who actually plays poker.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:38 PM   #10741
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Basically, don't play with people better than you and play with people worse than you?

Who can argue against that? Certainly not me.

It was never the argument, FWIW.
literally never said anything about winning or losing or anything at all in this post.

I know you're a troll and you feed on attention but that post is about the names you give people and why not the people you should play against.

you spend 80% of your time on these forums either deliberately misunderstanding people to upset them or misunderstanding people because you are stupid and I can't decide which one is more sad.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:40 PM   #10742
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Ummm...what?

Lots of rambling, but I don't actually see any comprehensible argument to how it isn't better to move up if WR remains relatively constant and BR is not an issue.

Please clarify.
It's the human element. Stress. Change. Irrational fear. Etc.

Human beings are not +EV calculators.

Ironically your posts are full of rambling and the posts you're replying to are cohesive.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:42 PM   #10743
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Well, at least I know I am not educating fish in the pool.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:48 PM   #10744
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Well, at least I know I am not educating fish in the pool.
If we apply your general attitude-approach of "so obviously logical..." to yourself, whose location is argueland and occupation is professional arguer, it's implicitly clear that you don't have a talent for arguing, as a real arguing crusher would never put that in their public bio. If Immanuel Kant were alive and a member on 2p2, would your bio be a part of his range? I think not. I also think he wouldn't have a million posts in such a short window as you do.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:52 PM   #10745
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Once a fish told me that he noticed that I have been playing better...

It literally ruined my week.

If fish is telling me that I am doing something right, does that mean I am doing something wrong?
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Old 09-22-2015, 03:54 PM   #10746
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Playing 40hrs of live poker every week is insane.


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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
And FWIW, I think true crushers would be doing a lot to look average.
Elaborate please.
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Old 09-22-2015, 03:56 PM   #10747
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Playing 40hrs of live poker every week is insane.




Elaborate please.
See, this is why RP posts the way he does, and it comes off as trolling. Is it really that difficult to figure out why a true crusher would act average?
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Old 09-22-2015, 03:56 PM   #10748
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Read DGAF.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:09 PM   #10749
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
See, this is why RP posts the way he does, and it comes off as trolling. Is it really that difficult to figure out why a true crusher would act average?
Now you're trolling me.

How do you hide the fact that you are a winning player?
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:16 PM   #10750
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So here is the real reason "10bb/hr winners" disappear before 1k hours @ 1/3:



That is a plot of a fake 10bb/hr WR line overlayed on the range of possible results of a +2bb/hr player.

So if 100 meh slight winners set off to track results at once.

At 100 hours, one or two dozen of these meh regs would report a 10bb+/hr winrate. And they would be on this forum and in this thread convinced that they and everyone they know crushes LLSNL

By 200 hours, we are down to a handful, but still significant number of "fake crushers"

By 500 hours, the heaters are over and we may only have one fake crusher left.

By 1000 hours, they are extinct.

The crushers don't disappear because they "move up". They disappear because it was an illusion to begin with. They are just meh players on heaters.

However, most people tracking results are players on short term heaters. How many times when asked about results do you hear "well I just started tracking again", or "my old data got all messed up so I only have my most recent 200 hours"..? This is all code for I am tracking my heater

And sorry to most ITT.. but this thread is clogged with heater trackers. And the claims of crushers left and right are completely based on insignificant hours.

There are only a few ITT with enough hours to mean anything. There are a few who have hours and don't post results yet have good WRs.. and there are many new players and many players who have enough hours but "lost" their old data.
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