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Old 09-17-2015, 07:09 PM   #10576
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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At what point should a poker professional look at home ownership?

We have very little debt, the only debt we have is 240/mo on a car. No student loans, no credit card balance or other stuff.

MrsDeadfish makes 30k or so and I expect to bring in roughly the same. We live a pretty comfortable stress free life, obviously more money is better but we are very content and low maintenance. We are not materialistic and are a very pragmatic people.

our rent is currently 850/mo and our expected mortgage is between 500-650.

I currently have about 18k to my named and about 5k would go towards all of the expenses of home purchasing (down, inspection, closing, ect)

That would leave me with about 12k to play the 1/3 and a 1k emergency roll.

What are you thoughts?

Any advice or insight is greatly appreciated!
Are there 2/5 games running in your area? If so, I'd be focused on trying to increase my income by moving up in level, rather than taking on the financial burden of buying a house which will likely slow your move up in stakes. Also, as I previously stated, I think it's best that people with normal jobs have 3 to 6 months of living expenses saved up in an emergency fund.

Before making any decision, I'd like to understand the real estate market. Right now prices in my area are a bit inflated which is why I probably won't be buying any properties here in the foreseeable future.

If you are going to compare your costs you really need to use an excel spreadsheet an compare all costs. Mortgage vs rent isn't really a valid comparison considering there are other significant costs in owning a home. My property taxes run $300/mo plus another $100/mo for insurance. If anything breaks you'll be fixing that out of your own pocket. Also, depending on the size and structure type of your apartment and potential house there could also be significant differences in cost for electricity. Some apartments include certain bills in the rent. Also, lawn/yard maintenance etc.
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:12 PM   #10577
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
At what point should a poker professional look at home ownership?

We have very little debt, the only debt we have is 240/mo on a car. No student loans, no credit card balance or other stuff.

MrsDeadfish makes 30k or so and I expect to bring in roughly the same. We live a pretty comfortable stress free life, obviously more money is better but we are very content and low maintenance. We are not materialistic and are a very pragmatic people.

our rent is currently 850/mo and our expected mortgage is between 500-650.

I currently have about 18k to my named and about 5k would go towards all of the expenses of home purchasing (down, inspection, closing, ect)

That would leave me with about 12k to play the 1/3 and a 1k emergency roll.

What are you thoughts?

Any advice or insight is greatly appreciated!

two reasons to own a home

- emotional. (not saying this is illegtimate at all btw). the need to feel rooted to a spot/community, to have 'settled down', want to have a place of your own for your family etc etc

- financial. it seems it may not be the case in many parts of the US over the past 10 years, but at least where I live, home ownership provides a significant opportunity for wealth creation and again, where I am, there is no cap gains tax on your own home. of course you can benefit from property market with investment properties but often, you have to pay a slightly higher mortgage rate, you can't borrow as much (= less wealth creation multiplied when market rises) and you have to pay cap gains tax on profits. Again, this may not be relevant to where you live

against that....things go wrong/need fixing and upgrading in houses and this costs $$ every year and is sometimes a **** load.

plus opportunity cost of what you could do with the $$ on your deposit

plus debt is an impediment to innovation in a million ways.


I'm a net believer in home ownership and have done very well from it over the years but I do sometimes get emotionally weighed down by the debt I'm attached to and I also think having a mortgage definitely stopped me from going harder in the early years of my business which may (or may not) have resulted in more growth and a bigger business
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:13 PM   #10578
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Ha. Yeah I'm still playing constantly not sure why I dont post more. I've had some pretty cool hands recently. Have had a gf for about a year now. Out of the hunt unfortunately.


As to playing with regs, I love it. I would gladly sit at a table full of regs at my casino. I know they're bad, and know how they play.
why are you still playing 1/2, stranger?
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:22 PM   #10579
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Are there 2/5 games running in your area? If so, I'd be focused on trying to increase my income by moving up in level, rather than taking on the financial burden of buying a house which will likely slow your move up in stakes. Also, as I previously stated, I think it's best that people with normal jobs have 3 to 6 months of living expenses saved up in an emergency fund.

Before making any decision, I'd like to understand the real estate market. Right now prices in my area are a bit inflated which is why I probably won't be buying any properties here in the foreseeable future.

If you are going to compare your costs you really need to use an excel spreadsheet an compare all costs. Mortgage vs rent isn't really a valid comparison considering there are other significant costs in owning a home. My property taxes run $300/mo plus another $100/mo for insurance. If anything breaks you'll be fixing that out of your own pocket. Also, depending on the size and structure type of your apartment and potential house there could also be significant differences in cost for electricity. Some apartments include certain bills in the rent. Also, lawn/yard maintenance etc.
the mortgage + tax + insurance+ PMI is still about 200-300 less then what we pay now, so the only concern I would have is maintenance. I guess in theory that could be mitigated by home inspection.

In regards to moving up to 2/5 I think my 100-300 1/3 with a 2x-5x MS straddle is probably pretty close in achievable WR to a 500bb cap 2/5
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:38 PM   #10580
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If your rent is currently $850 and you think mortgage+property tax+homeowners insurance +PMI is $200-300 / month less than you are buying a real ****hole of a house and I would recommend not doing it as you will be In a real bad neighborhood or spend a lot on a fixer-upper that you just can't forsee.

I think it is much more likely that you used a mortgage calculator online and just have no idea how much property taxes really are. It is the mistake I made on my first house. Not sure where you live, but in the North East I pay $650/month in property taxes Winrates, bankrolls, and finances on a house assessed at just over 200k.
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:47 PM   #10581
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NY times has a good rent vs buy calculator to at least get you started.
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:53 PM   #10582
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If your rent is currently $850 and you think mortgage+property tax+homeowners insurance +PMI is $200-300 / month less than you are buying a real ****hole of a house and I would recommend not doing it as you will be In a real bad neighborhood or spend a lot on a fixer-upper that you just can't forsee.

I think it is much more likely that you used a mortgage calculator online and just have no idea how much property taxes really are. It is the mistake I made on my first house. Not sure where you live, but in the North East I pay $650/month in property taxes Winrates, bankrolls, and finances on a house assessed at just over 200k.
property tax here is 2.25%

im looking to buy a fixer-upper in the 60-70k range.

I already live in a bad area in a tiny 1bd so anything is at least a lateral transition
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Old 09-17-2015, 08:35 PM   #10583
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property tax here is 2.25%

im looking to buy a fixer-upper in the 60-70k range.

I already live in a bad area in a tiny 1bd so anything is at least a lateral transition
Gotta think about resale value tho.

You might be cool living in a ****hole but Jon/Jane Doe X years from now might not.

Buying a fixer-upper = buy the ****tiest house in a nice neighborhood != buying a cheap house in a ****ty neighborhood

What state??
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Old 09-17-2015, 08:38 PM   #10584
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Gotta think about resale value tho.

You might be cool living in a ****hole but Jon/Jane Doe X years from now might not.

Buying a fixer-upper = buy the ****tiest house in a nice neighborhood != buying a cheap house in a ****ty neighborhood

What state??
MD.

Im not super worried abotu resale, I'll cross that bridge when I get there. we're talking about a house that is worth 5 figures so if I have to die in it or rent it whateva
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Old 09-17-2015, 08:52 PM   #10585
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MD.

Im not super worried abotu resale, I'll cross that bridge when I get there. we're talking about a house that is worth 5 figures so if I have to die in it or rent it whateva
The biggest thing I would fear about buying a ****ty house is repairs. While you can see the furnace/roof/siding, it's difficult to see things inside walls that can cause lots of expensive problems. The more years any house had bad previous owners (which goes way up with a 5 figure house) could compound issues because less well off people are more likely to band aid problem solve rather than really fixing the issues.
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Old 09-17-2015, 08:58 PM   #10586
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The biggest thing I would fear about buying a ****ty house is repairs. While you can see the furnace/roof/siding, it's difficult to see things inside walls that can cause lots of expensive problems. The more years any house had bad previous owners (which goes way up with a 5 figure house) could compound issues because less well off people are more likely to band aid problem solve rather than really fixing the issues.
Yeah I totally agree,

and in essence that is the dilema.
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Old 09-17-2015, 10:09 PM   #10587
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What % of the player pool in a 2/5 100bb cap game do you think are making $25/hour or more?
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Old 09-17-2015, 10:31 PM   #10588
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10% is my guess
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Old 09-17-2015, 10:33 PM   #10589
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10% is my guess
Probably less then this
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Old 09-17-2015, 10:37 PM   #10590
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Yeah, I'll take the under on that.
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Old 09-17-2015, 10:55 PM   #10591
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Depends on overall size of the pool.
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Old 09-17-2015, 11:01 PM   #10592
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10% is my guess
I'm not sure if 10% is even winning, let alone 5bb
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Old 09-17-2015, 11:01 PM   #10593
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Depends on overall size of the pool.
Let's say Maryland live. So up to 15 tables on weekends. 8 tables right now.
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Old 09-17-2015, 11:03 PM   #10594
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
MD.

Im not super worried abotu resale, I'll cross that bridge when I get there. we're talking about a house that is worth 5 figures so if I have to die in it or rent it whateva
Where in MD can you buy a house for 5 figures that is within a reasonable drive to a casino?

I own a home in Montgomery county. Can't buy a metal tool shed for less than 6 figures.

With that said, buying a home makes sense in the US in my opinion. As long as worst case scenario is that you live in it for some time and can leave without oweing anything, you are better off than renting just because of income tax savings. Remeber you can deduct mortgage interest and pmi if you are paying it. With interest rates crazy low it is no brainer.

Bought my place a few years ago from the bank. My mortgage, plus home insurance and property taxes together are still significantly less than what it was costing me to rent a house. And i pay less income tax.

Good luck.

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Old 09-17-2015, 11:12 PM   #10595
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Baltimore!
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:27 AM   #10596
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Let's say Maryland live. So up to 15 tables on weekends. 8 tables right now.
1-3%.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:41 AM   #10597
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Wondering what percentage of players are long time losers. Everybody seems to estimate its 80%
If 98% is wrong, it's too low.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:55 AM   #10598
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If 98% is wrong, it's too low.
Is that serious??
I just ask, because that's really depressing... I must be in for a world of hurt soon.

Last edited by Dopedupwalrus; 09-18-2015 at 01:10 AM.
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Old 09-18-2015, 01:20 AM   #10599
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If 98% is wrong, it's too low.
I'll take the under on this by a long way
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Old 09-18-2015, 01:45 AM   #10600
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What % of the player pool in a 2/5 100bb cap game do you think are making $25/hour or more?
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Let's say Maryland live. So up to 15 tables on weekends. 8 tables right now.
My guess would be--EXTREMELY few. I would say the maximum is 10% (and only because you specified 5 bb/hr and not a larger number). And it's also probably not who you'd think it is.

If you increased that bound to $40/hr by the way, I'd guess it's 1% at best.

Ask yourself this question--out of all the regs you recognize at 2/5...how many of them do you see EVER trying to move up? That to me is likely to be a good estimate of an upper bound on how many 2/5 players are big winners (upper bound meaning, you could see a player playing 5/10 who still isn't a big winner at 2/5, but I don't think it's likely to work in reverse).
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