In that case, I'm going to make sure all my bluffs work. ;-)

I appreciate the stddev discussion. I've read the last few months of this thread, wondering if I should read the last few years to be more up to speed.

Once the poker bug bit me and I had some early success, as a numbers guy I naturally started looking at my stddev and measuring confidence levels on my WR.
Standard poker honeymoon phase.

When I hit my first psychological downswing it was an eureka moment. If bad luck yields bad play in many, what good is a confidence interval calculated during a period which only includes mildly bad luck - great luck?

I realize this is old news for many, but I throw it out there in case it helps some.

Put another way... Each hand, each hour, each session are not independent trials in the statistical sense. For the strongest psychologically, closer to independent than the rest of us.

Even after just tracking 2 sessions of AA/KK, I've become even more aware of how variance has a huge grasp on our game, especially if we are a recreational players that will only get in a rather lol lifetime amount of hours. And not just in winning and losing with hands like these, but with all sorts of other things, like what position we are dealt them, and at what type of table we are dealt them at, etc.

For example, I've only just begun tracking AA/KK for the COTM, over a lol sample size of ~22 hours. Obviously this is a lol sample size, but as a recreational player who expects to get in around 500 hours this year, that sample size actually makes up 4.4% of my total this year, about 1/23 of my year. Not a big chunk of my year, but not an incredibly small one either.

So in this chunk, I've gotten AA/KK 4 times in that 22 hours (AAx3, KKx1), slightly below the expected ~6. But here's the interesting thing, I've had those hands first to act preflop 3 times (twice UTG+1 on a straddle, once UTG not on a straddle), and once in the BB. Any guesses as to where I made the most money? Yeah, of course, in the BB, where I knew how many people were interested in the pot and could make a much better guess at my raise size for generating action. 2 of my UTG+1 raises on the straddle saw me take down the pot preflop, the other UTG I limped / didn't get a chance to reraise / folded postflop on bad runout.

Course, my guess is that over the next 22/23 of the next year I'll (hopefully) run a little better regarding getting AA/KK the expected the amount of time, and in a better overall average position, and then after all that, hopefully run about expectation at a hopefully good table. But overall, it'll still just be a lol drop-in-the-bucket sample size.

Blah blah blah, the point being that's it is kind of sickening to know the hold all shapes of variance really have on our lifetime results.

GIthinkIalwaysknewthis,butIrantoowellearlyontogive itenoughrespectG

Even something like the dealer pitching a card and it turning faceup is variance.

Running so good it happened to me yesterday, hero has QQ, very loose straddler gets pitched a face up 6. He calls with any two on his straddle, flop 664.
***** lol. 5$ dealer tip

That's just dumb...

Rewarding a dealer for making silly mistake is no different than yelling at one.

Lol, just a fun way to mock the straddler, dat funny gambly asiat

Is this per hour or per session?? Just curious

Buy me a beer next time I see you?

Sure

Per hour. Session SD is $459.86 for 1/2 and $775.31 for 2/5

I like this. Will do

Stdev stat helped me a lot during my drawdown and it helped me with bankroll considerations and planning. Thats about it.

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Saw someone post loss rate and that pique my curiosity.

Has anyone ever calculated medium or average loss rate in terms of bb?

won like another 900.

up 5600 in 66 hours over 17 days

Whatcha' talkin' about Willis?!!.... I double barrel with bottom set [even if it's deuces] all the time!

I did make this a while back (based on about 500 sessions)



If anything it's skewed towards the middle since that includes a few dozen times where I played 1/2 for one hour waiting for a 2/5 seat and counted it as a "session".

Guess I could go through my DB and figure average loss pretty easily when I get home today.

Think he means the average amount lost by average player per hour at casino?

I was thinking along similar lines the other day. Wondering what percentage of players are long time losers. Everybody seems to estimate its 80% but I just can't believe it's that high.

I'd believe it. Being a long term winner requires discipline most people don't have. You can be a good player and go busto due to bad mental game/life, you can't be a bad player and win big long-term (you can bink and gtfo though)

It costs a loootttt of money to keep live poker going. Take the rake and take the winrates and everyone else has to lose that much. And a couple people will probably be break-even-ish so the rest have to lose even more.

A 2/5 table might have 3 people winning 30/hr average (that might be high tbh) and rake $140/hr. So six people then have to lose $230/hr between them or close to $40 each. If you have two people losing $10/hr then the other four must lose $52/hr each.

so imagine what it's like at my casino where Star takes $30ph off each seat (10 handed)

Thats like home game rake.

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80% is probably low for the number of losing players in that case.

That's exactly what I meant.

Everyone is looking at win rate and maybe we can discover a few things by looking at loss rate.

My guess is that it would actually be higher, no? It's hard for there to be lots of winners when almost every small stakes table has a rat-holing 70 bb/hr winner sitting at the table (i.e. the dealer).

I'm pretty convinced my winrate has almost nothing to do with me and is fully dependent on my opponents lossrate. As whales improve to fish, and fish improve to slightly losing players, that has a huge affect on me. Would be super interesting to see all the graphs of everyone in my room and see how they relate to each other over time.

GjustaguessG

A good start!

Assuming there are 3 people taking combine of 20bb/hr off the table and rake/tip of 30bb/hr, there is a hole of -50bb/hr that needs to be made up by the remaining 6 players.

So each player is losing at a rate of roughly 8.33bb/hr?