Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-13-2011, 02:36 PM   #1026
Pay4Myschool
Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad
 
Pay4Myschool's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Michigan / California
Posts: 7,473
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

sick brag for a first post ^^^^
Pay4Myschool is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2011, 02:37 PM   #1027
Pay4Myschool
Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad
 
Pay4Myschool's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Michigan / California
Posts: 7,473
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Brag: Played 6 sessions of $2/5 and won all of them, booking meager wins in all sessions ranging from +$90-$860. Nice to get on the right foot when first moving up
Pay4Myschool is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2011, 09:39 PM   #1028
quesuerte
Pooh-Bah
 
quesuerte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Barcelona
Posts: 4,335
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Congrats, you are a great asset to the forum and deserve your success. Now you know 2/5 is LOOOOOOOOOOL ;-)
quesuerte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2011, 09:51 PM   #1029
2OutsNoProb
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: BK, NY
Posts: 15,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by TxOutlawz View Post
Hey everyone.. Now I see people posting stats and equations on their winrate. But I currently live in Southeast Texas (non gambling state) and about 30-45 mins from Lake Charles LA ( Isle Capri and L'Auberge).


My current level is 2/5NL in which I spend around 40-70hrs a week playing. Since I can't stand being told what to do at a job I picked up poker at age 18 and now 24 with about 3 yrs live play.


I bring around 1200-2000 with me each time I go. Now how would I determine if im a winning player over a long period of time or not?

Each session I buy in for the max 500$ and typically do not ever rebuy unless I stack off vs a cooler. This month alone I have averaged 1400-2k a week profit. But yet last month I had dropped a good 3500 maybe more maybe less.


Sorry if this was a little vague
Congrats that you're doing well, and if you've been doing it for 3 years at this rate, you seem to be in really good shape. However, to be honest I really wouldn't want to imagine a life at age 24 where I played lived poker 70 hours a week - that seems insane to me. That's either 5 or 6 insanely long sessions, or playing all 7 days a week, which is crazy IMO
2OutsNoProb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2011, 06:02 PM   #1030
1-eye
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 108
Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by HungryBeast View Post
Sorry I'm not sure I made the confidence part clear. That isn't a speculative value of confidence you have in yourself; that value is the % chance that the results are correct. Using the above example, a value of 0.8 means that if your actual t value is greater than the calculated critical value, you can say with 80% confidence that your actual winrate is above the desired winrate used. You can never have 100% confidence because there is still chance involved and it is possible you have just been on a huge upswing.

By increasing the confidence level, your critical value of t will increase meaning you will have to have a larger sample, greater actual winrate, or smaller standard deviation to increase your actual t value to be greater than the new higher value of critical t, to be more confident that your long run winrate is above the desired winrate. I hope that helps.

hungry Beast, thanks for the math, just want to check if you are sure about this. Doesn't your SD value change (reduce) as yours hours get longer? So 180 can;t apply to everyone yes/no?.

For example, I only have 10hrs live with $79/hr winrate at 2/5 but according to your calcs, I would have a 69% chance that my actual winrate is above $50/hr. That seems extremely optimistic to me.

Am I doing it wrong..?

Spoiler:
1-eye is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-14-2011, 06:08 PM   #1031
Mr.JR
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,754
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10 hours is NOTHING.
Mr.JR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2011, 03:55 PM   #1032
Tom Dwans Son
banned
 
Tom Dwans Son's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 4,004
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What should one's expected hourly rate be if the player buys in for 60 big blinds rather than 100 big blinds? For instance, if an expected hourly rate of a good 2/5 player is $25-$30 with a normal $500 buy in, how much less would it be if the player buys in for $300?

I am going to start buying in at $300 instead of $500 and was wondering if there was a formula to calculate this or at least an educated guess. Thanks.

Also, I was wondering how this would affect overall bankroll strategy as it related to variance. For instance, my bankroll is 20 buy ins (aka $10k). However, if I'm buying in at $300, I would expect my bankroll would need to be more than 20 buy-ins but could be less than $10k.

Thanks so much.
Tom Dwans Son is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2011, 03:59 PM   #1033
Tom Dwans Son
banned
 
Tom Dwans Son's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 4,004
Re: 2/5 NLH Situation/Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1-eye View Post
hungry Beast, thanks for the math, just want to check if you are sure about this. Doesn't your SD value change (reduce) as yours hours get longer? So 180 can;t apply to everyone yes/no?.

For example, I only have 10hrs live with $79/hr winrate at 2/5 but according to your calcs, I would have a 69% chance that my actual winrate is above $50/hr. That seems extremely optimistic to me.

Am I doing it wrong..?
Your sample size is way too small. In my first 40 hrs at 2/5 I had a win rate of $100/hr. Later my win rate dropped all the way to $0/hr. LoL
Tom Dwans Son is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2011, 03:09 PM   #1034
bubonicplay
Pooh-Bah
 
bubonicplay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, $$
Posts: 3,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Agreed 10 hours of 2-5 is too small of a sample size to determine your WR, you need at least 30 hours IMO
bubonicplay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2011, 11:04 PM   #1035
FlopSweat
newbie
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 22
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been reading this thread for a while and wanted to get some input on my situation. I'm a recreational player and I have no bankroll specifically set aside for poker. I'm a somewhat experienced player having played about 20 to 30 hours a week online between 2004 and 2007. Since then I have only played sporadically in live 1-2 NL at foxwoods on weekends and I have had good success in these sessions and feel confident I'm one of the better players at 1-2NL when I'm there.

My goal now is to play roughly two 12 hour sessions per month while trying to improve my game. I have about $1500 per month savings from my job that I'm willing to use/lose. I like 1-2NL because there is usually some really terrible competition and I'm not afraid of shoving a $300 stack at any time if I need to.

My questions are: What level would you play at if you were me? How much stiffer is the competition at 2-5NL over 1-2NL? Would it be completely insane to take my $1500 and have a shot at 5-10NL one month?
FlopSweat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 04:14 AM   #1036
RobFarha
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RobFarha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @robbyrobbb
Posts: 9,475
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

15.75 an hour at 1/2 over 243 hours.

Do I fail?

I know I tip way too much. In poker journal can anyone clarify what Average/(raw) Real Hour means? Mine is 19$/hr. Assuming this is before tips/expenses entered.

actual winrate is 15.75
RobFarha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 04:45 AM   #1037
AAdave
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 15
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've had quite a bit of success this past month. I'm a 23 year old poker nerd though i never played a ton online nor tons at a casino. Over the past year I played about 50 hours over ten sessions with slightly winning results.

I set aside a couple thousand dollars to play poker after my summer job and break up with girlfriend. I've played full time hours - 40-50 hours/week over the past month.

Over my last 185 hours i've averaged $130/hr playing 2/5 and 5/5. My sample size is small but I do feel I can consistently beat the game at a $40+hr+ rate. I try to play when the games are fishiest. friday and saturday 2-9am has been my most profitable timeslot. The games often get shorthanded at these hours which is far more fun and better suited to my style. Playing ten handed table when card dead often bores me into making -EV decisions. Most of my sessions are 7-11 hours though my longest is 17 lol I also set a 3 buy in stoploss to reduce chance of tilt-induced slip ups.

It's exciting to actually have a modest bankroll now - I don't delude myself into thinking my winrate is sustainable but I think I'm going to continue to log 40 hour weeks at these stakes (though I'm certainly tempted to take a shot one of these fridays at 10/20 if the line up is soft lol) and see if I can keep my bankroll healthy! Good luck everyone.
AAdave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 06:05 AM   #1038
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does % of wins matter?

I know you want 500 hours to really know your win rate, but what % of winning sessions (net positive overall) makes you think you are a winning player?

I switched my play from a LAG (I may as well play this crap out of position as I can always out play post flop) to more LAG-Rational (I would play this 47s if I was LP)...

Since changing I'm 9/10 winning sessions. I was 10/10 but moved up to stake that was above my level and tilted.

How many winning sessions in a row before I can start to think that I'm a winning player with my new strategy?

If I'm 18/20 with 15bb/hr does that mean I'm very likely a winning player? It's only 80 hours for me, but what are the odds of a losing player booking that many wins in a row?

27/30?

45/50? That's only 200 hours for me.

Wasn't sure how % wins really factored in.

I have had some coolers during that time but nothing too sick. $120 qq losing to jj aipf, stuff like that. Some rungood.
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 12:28 PM   #1039
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,396
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
15.75 an hour at 1/2 over 243 hours.

Do I fail?
That's almost my exact winrate at 1/3 (almost 8 BBs/hour) but I've booked twice as many hours.

Being totally results/winrate oriented, I'm rather happy with it. You're not?

Ghavinganypositivewinrateinpokerishighlyunderrated G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 02:30 PM   #1040
RobFarha
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RobFarha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @robbyrobbb
Posts: 9,475
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
That's almost my exact winrate at 1/3 (almost 8 BBs/hour) but I've booked twice as many hours.

Being totally results/winrate oriented, I'm rather happy with it. You're not?

Ghavinganypositivewinrateinpokerishighlyunderrated G
I think I could have a positive win rate if I only looked at one card and value bet when I hit a pair.

I am happy with it, but I was more wondering about what my 18/hr win rate means..
RobFarha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 04:22 PM   #1041
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How do you figure bbj/promotions drop in your win rate?

I just treat it like rake.

But really, you should count it as stranded equity. You are basically neutral EV but have money still "in the game" in a certain sense.

But you may never win.

Interesting to see if you play 30 hands/hour 40 hours/week for 15 years what are your odds of hitting bbj...
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 06:39 PM   #1042
mike1270
adept
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,056
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlopSweat View Post
My goal now is to play roughly two 12 hour sessions per month while trying to improve my game. I have about $1500 per month savings from my job that I'm willing to use/lose. I like 1-2NL because there is usually some really terrible competition and I'm not afraid of shoving a $300 stack at any time if I need to.

My questions are: What level would you play at if you were me? How much stiffer is the competition at 2-5NL over 1-2NL? Would it be completely insane to take my $1500 and have a shot at 5-10NL one month?
play 1/2 for awhile and build a poker bankroll instead of a poker budget
mike1270 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 11:24 PM   #1043
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlopSweat View Post
Would it be completely insane to take my $1500 and have a shot at 5-10NL one month?
Yes.



If you want a safer option but the same thrill, just put it on red for one spin.
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2011, 11:36 PM   #1044
RobFarha
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
RobFarha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @robbyrobbb
Posts: 9,475
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

play odd imo.

colors are for suckers
RobFarha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-31-2011, 04:33 PM   #1045
pure_aggression
Pooh-Bah
 
pure_aggression's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Pure Aggression on YouTube
Posts: 5,244
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I played exactly 1k hrs of llsnl in 2011

29.65/hr for .25/.50 over 9 hrs
11.20/hr for .50/1 over 4 hrs
14.38/hr for 1/2 over 829 hrs
-16.88/hr for 1/3 over 39 hrs
.35/hr for 2/4 over 118 hrs

pure_aggression is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 11:31 PM   #1046
rayamrein
stranger
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here are my real life poker stats using cardplayer.com poker stats tracker, in the early games 2/4 limit I would avg. 8 hr sessions, now I play 1/2 nl and only play 4 hr per session. All sessions are in vegas casinos and are all weekend play only. I never missed a session entry into this log for 2127 hrs. These are real stats for a weekend player with a full time job, I could show details as follows, any $ amount with ( ) around it is a loss total.

04 Jun 14:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
03 Jun 16:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
30 May 17:21 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 1h 0m $177.00
28 May 22:58 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $180.00
27 May 13:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $60.00
26 May 16:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $155.00
24 May 23:38 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $135.00
24 May 00:17 PLANET HOLLYWOOD No Limit 4h 0m ($70.00)
30 Apr 23:01 MGM GRAND 4h 0m ($300.00)
24 Apr 11:24 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
17 Apr 04:04 HARD ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $40.00
09 Apr 15:29 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $355.00
02 Apr 12:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $50.00

Cash Game Statistics
Cash Game Count: 811
Wins: 387
Losses: 424 Total Won/Lost: $11,439.80
Average / Hour: $5.38
Std. Dev. (Amount): $141.28 Total Hours: 2127h 5m

Last edited by rayamrein; 01-03-2012 at 11:56 PM.
rayamrein is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2012, 12:45 AM   #1047
rayamrein
stranger
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAdave View Post
I've had quite a bit of success this past month. I'm a 23 year old poker nerd though i never played a ton online nor tons at a casino. Over the past year I played about 50 hours over ten sessions with slightly winning results.

I set aside a couple thousand dollars to play poker after my summer job and break up with girlfriend. I've played full time hours - 40-50 hours/week over the past month.

Over my last 185 hours i've averaged $130/hr playing 2/5 and 5/5. My sample size is small but I do feel I can consistently beat the game at a $40+hr+ rate. I try to play when the games are fishiest. friday and saturday 2-9am has been my most profitable timeslot. The games often get shorthanded at these hours which is far more fun and better suited to my style. Playing ten handed table when card dead often bores me into making -EV decisions. Most of my sessions are 7-11 hours though my longest is 17 lol I also set a 3 buy in stoploss to reduce chance of tilt-induced slip ups.

It's exciting to actually have a modest bankroll now - I don't delude myself into thinking my winrate is sustainable but I think I'm going to continue to log 40 hour weeks at these stakes (though I'm certainly tempted to take a shot one of these fridays at 10/20 if the line up is soft lol) and see if I can keep my bankroll healthy! Good luck everyone.
I hope you don't mind me asking, I would like to know where are you playing these 2/5 and 5/5 games on a couple thousand dollar bank roll?
rayamrein is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2012, 03:55 AM   #1048
Mr.JR
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,754
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just starting playing more seriously starting in October. All games are 1/2 or 1/3. Here are my stats from October-December:

Times Played: 48
Winning sessions: 26
Losing sessions:22

Hours Played:305

$ in: $14,200
$ out: $19,850
$ W: $5,650

Ave. hours/session: 6 hours, 21 minutes.
Ave / hour: $18.52

Had 3 winning sessions of over $1,000, and never lost more than $400 in a night (Don't play well when stuck big, and would rather have a short, losing night, than a long, soul crushing night).

Hoping to crush it in 2012, and average $20+ at 1/2, 1/3 games, and start playing 2/5 once I get my roll above $12.5K.
Mr.JR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2012, 03:40 PM   #1049
msufan
grinder
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 695
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ended 2011 on a 15-session winning streak. Earned $8400 playing 1/2 exclusively. Played 86 sessions, ave. 5 hours per session. Basically $20/hr. I am not a good player but play in a game that is usually extremely juicy.

First session of 2012: +$107. 16 straight winning sessions and counting!

No plans to move up to 2/5. I know I'm only winning because of the softness of the room in which I play.
msufan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-08-2012, 05:21 AM   #1050
Grin -N- Bear IT
grinder
 
Grin -N- Bear IT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 481
$11/hr over 318 hours 1/2nl. What is everyone's standard deviation? I think mine might be really extremely high but it might just be the game I play in
Grin -N- Bear IT is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:41 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive