sick brag for a first post ^^^^

Brag: Played 6 sessions of $2/5 and won all of them, booking meager wins in all sessions ranging from +$90-$860. Nice to get on the right foot when first moving up

Congrats, you are a great asset to the forum and deserve your success. Now you know 2/5 is LOOOOOOOOOOL ;-)

Congrats that you're doing well, and if you've been doing it for 3 years at this rate, you seem to be in really good shape. However, to be honest I really wouldn't want to imagine a life at age 24 where I played lived poker 70 hours a week - that seems insane to me. That's either 5 or 6 insanely long sessions, or playing all 7 days a week, which is crazy IMO

hungry Beast, thanks for the math, just want to check if you are sure about this. Doesn't your SD value change (reduce) as yours hours get longer? So 180 can;t apply to everyone yes/no?.

For example, I only have 10hrs live with $79/hr winrate at 2/5 but according to your calcs, I would have a 69% chance that my actual winrate is above $50/hr. That seems extremely optimistic to me.

Am I doing it wrong..?

10 hours is NOTHING.

What should one's expected hourly rate be if the player buys in for 60 big blinds rather than 100 big blinds? For instance, if an expected hourly rate of a good 2/5 player is $25-$30 with a normal $500 buy in, how much less would it be if the player buys in for $300?

I am going to start buying in at $300 instead of $500 and was wondering if there was a formula to calculate this or at least an educated guess. Thanks.

Also, I was wondering how this would affect overall bankroll strategy as it related to variance. For instance, my bankroll is 20 buy ins (aka $10k). However, if I'm buying in at $300, I would expect my bankroll would need to be more than 20 buy-ins but could be less than $10k.

Thanks so much.

Your sample size is way too small. In my first 40 hrs at 2/5 I had a win rate of $100/hr. Later my win rate dropped all the way to $0/hr. LoL

Agreed 10 hours of 2-5 is too small of a sample size to determine your WR, you need at least 30 hours IMO

I've been reading this thread for a while and wanted to get some input on my situation. I'm a recreational player and I have no bankroll specifically set aside for poker. I'm a somewhat experienced player having played about 20 to 30 hours a week online between 2004 and 2007. Since then I have only played sporadically in live 1-2 NL at foxwoods on weekends and I have had good success in these sessions and feel confident I'm one of the better players at 1-2NL when I'm there.

My goal now is to play roughly two 12 hour sessions per month while trying to improve my game. I have about $1500 per month savings from my job that I'm willing to use/lose. I like 1-2NL because there is usually some really terrible competition and I'm not afraid of shoving a $300 stack at any time if I need to.

My questions are: What level would you play at if you were me? How much stiffer is the competition at 2-5NL over 1-2NL? Would it be completely insane to take my $1500 and have a shot at 5-10NL one month?

15.75 an hour at 1/2 over 243 hours.

Do I fail?

I know I tip way too much. In poker journal can anyone clarify what Average/(raw) Real Hour means? Mine is 19$/hr. Assuming this is before tips/expenses entered.

actual winrate is 15.75

I've had quite a bit of success this past month. I'm a 23 year old poker nerd though i never played a ton online nor tons at a casino. Over the past year I played about 50 hours over ten sessions with slightly winning results.

I set aside a couple thousand dollars to play poker after my summer job and break up with girlfriend. I've played full time hours - 40-50 hours/week over the past month.

Over my last 185 hours i've averaged $130/hr playing 2/5 and 5/5. My sample size is small but I do feel I can consistently beat the game at a $40+hr+ rate. I try to play when the games are fishiest. friday and saturday 2-9am has been my most profitable timeslot. The games often get shorthanded at these hours which is far more fun and better suited to my style. Playing ten handed table when card dead often bores me into making -EV decisions. Most of my sessions are 7-11 hours though my longest is 17 lol I also set a 3 buy in stoploss to reduce chance of tilt-induced slip ups.

It's exciting to actually have a modest bankroll now - I don't delude myself into thinking my winrate is sustainable but I think I'm going to continue to log 40 hour weeks at these stakes (though I'm certainly tempted to take a shot one of these fridays at 10/20 if the line up is soft lol) and see if I can keep my bankroll healthy! Good luck everyone.

Does % of wins matter?

I know you want 500 hours to really know your win rate, but what % of winning sessions (net positive overall) makes you think you are a winning player?

I switched my play from a LAG (I may as well play this crap out of position as I can always out play post flop) to more LAG-Rational (I would play this 47s if I was LP)...

Since changing I'm 9/10 winning sessions. I was 10/10 but moved up to stake that was above my level and tilted.

How many winning sessions in a row before I can start to think that I'm a winning player with my new strategy?

If I'm 18/20 with 15bb/hr does that mean I'm very likely a winning player? It's only 80 hours for me, but what are the odds of a losing player booking that many wins in a row?

27/30?

45/50? That's only 200 hours for me.

Wasn't sure how % wins really factored in.

I have had some coolers during that time but nothing too sick. $120 qq losing to jj aipf, stuff like that. Some rungood.

That's almost my exact winrate at 1/3 (almost 8 BBs/hour) but I've booked twice as many hours.

Being totally results/winrate oriented, I'm rather happy with it. You're not?

Ghavinganypositivewinrateinpokerishighlyunderrated G

I think I could have a positive win rate if I only looked at one card and value bet when I hit a pair.

I am happy with it, but I was more wondering about what my 18/hr win rate means..

How do you figure bbj/promotions drop in your win rate?

I just treat it like rake.

But really, you should count it as stranded equity. You are basically neutral EV but have money still "in the game" in a certain sense.

But you may never win.

Interesting to see if you play 30 hands/hour 40 hours/week for 15 years what are your odds of hitting bbj...

play 1/2 for awhile and build a poker bankroll instead of a poker budget

Yes.



If you want a safer option but the same thrill, just put it on red for one spin.

play odd imo.

colors are for suckers

I played exactly 1k hrs of llsnl in 2011

29.65/hr for .25/.50 over 9 hrs
11.20/hr for .50/1 over 4 hrs
14.38/hr for 1/2 over 829 hrs
-16.88/hr for 1/3 over 39 hrs
.35/hr for 2/4 over 118 hrs

Here are my real life poker stats using cardplayer.com poker stats tracker, in the early games 2/4 limit I would avg. 8 hr sessions, now I play 1/2 nl and only play 4 hr per session. All sessions are in vegas casinos and are all weekend play only. I never missed a session entry into this log for 2127 hrs. These are real stats for a weekend player with a full time job, I could show details as follows, any $ amount with ( ) around it is a loss total.

04 Jun 14:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
03 Jun 16:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
30 May 17:21 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 1h 0m $177.00
28 May 22:58 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $180.00
27 May 13:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $60.00
26 May 16:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $155.00
24 May 23:38 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $135.00
24 May 00:17 PLANET HOLLYWOOD No Limit 4h 0m ($70.00)
30 Apr 23:01 MGM GRAND 4h 0m ($300.00)
24 Apr 11:24 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m ($200.00)
17 Apr 04:04 HARD ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $40.00
09 Apr 15:29 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $355.00
02 Apr 12:00 RED ROCK Hold'em No Limit 4h 0m $50.00

Cash Game Statistics
Cash Game Count: 811
Wins: 387
Losses: 424 Total Won/Lost: $11,439.80
Average / Hour: $5.38
Std. Dev. (Amount): $141.28 Total Hours: 2127h 5m

I hope you don't mind me asking, I would like to know where are you playing these 2/5 and 5/5 games on a couple thousand dollar bank roll?

Just starting playing more seriously starting in October. All games are 1/2 or 1/3. Here are my stats from October-December:

Times Played: 48
Winning sessions: 26
Losing sessions:22

Hours Played:305

$ in: $14,200
$ out: $19,850
$ W: $5,650

Ave. hours/session: 6 hours, 21 minutes.
Ave / hour: $18.52

Had 3 winning sessions of over $1,000, and never lost more than $400 in a night (Don't play well when stuck big, and would rather have a short, losing night, than a long, soul crushing night).

Hoping to crush it in 2012, and average $20+ at 1/2, 1/3 games, and start playing 2/5 once I get my roll above $12.5K.

Ended 2011 on a 15-session winning streak. Earned $8400 playing 1/2 exclusively. Played 86 sessions, ave. 5 hours per session. Basically $20/hr. I am not a good player but play in a game that is usually extremely juicy.

First session of 2012: +$107. 16 straight winning sessions and counting!

No plans to move up to 2/5. I know I'm only winning because of the softness of the room in which I play.

$11/hr over 318 hours 1/2nl. What is everyone's standard deviation? I think mine might be really extremely high but it might just be the game I play in