So y'all are saying poker has variance?

I see youve been making hay in my absence.

That win rate graph is really interesting. My whole theory right now is studying a lot, like an actual 25% of your poker is studying will increase your win-rate towards the ceiling for that stake, but then you're going to need a few thousands hours to get a decent idea.

I would agree with this. Most low stakes players benefit a lot more from study as opposed to play. For one you might be losing so play can actually be counterproductive and for two if you are playing the lowest stakes there are almost certainly things that you need to learn, primarily from study, if you want to win more or move up, or else you should be playing higher already.

The only real exception would be if you simply needed to build a bigger br, however most people probably just need to focus on building the means to build a br first.

Does anyone here advocate actually sticking at 1-2 to crush souls at $40-50 an hour, rather than moving up to 2-5 to make a similar amount?

Advantages: less variance, basically printing money every month and never having to fear a downswing.

Disadvantages: never moving up and testing yourself against better players, could be making more at 2-5 if you crush that game

Perhaps Johnny Buzz can weigh in on this. Does anyone here actually prefer 1-2 in terms of $ per hour win-rate?

1. Don't think you can win $40-50/hr at 1/2

2. You can't be afraid of a downswing if you hope to make any real money in poker

3. There is no such thing as printing money every day, every week, every month, etc (variance doesn't allow such a thing)

I only advocate sticking to 1/2 rather than 2/5 if you are a casual player who is just playing for fun and losing 1000+ would seriously hurt your mental game.

The only other reason to stick with 1/2 is if you don't have the bankroll for 2/5 or are not ready to move up (skill or mental game reasons)

If you can you should never leave.

Perhaps it all comes down to how "big" your game plays. My 1-2 probably plays like 2-5 in other parts of the country, so this can affect people's perception of what is possible.

I do believe $40 an hour is possible at my 1-2 game.

I mean my god that's just a monster winrate. If the avg stack is 500 or 1k and people straddle all the time then it's basically 2/5. Aesah brought this up in a clp podcast. When your looking at a game, it's important to note how big it plays, how big is the avg pot? That's going to be your indicator of potential winrate and variance.

At most 1/2. Avg stack is 125 bucks and rake is 4 or 5 bucks per hand. 40/hr in that environment over a meaningful sample would be truly remarkable.

That said there may actualy be some 2p2ers that have accomplished it.

I thought crushing 1/2 was the best thing since sliced bread. I read the comments that said it was a life leak that I hadn't tried taking shots at 2/5 and I blew them off.

Then I played 2/5 and realized I WAS A HUGE IDIOT! The game plays so much deeper that your theoretical win-rate is possibly 25-50% higher in theory, assuming same skill level.

I'm glad I played 1/2 for the experience and bankroll but I can already tell 2/5 is going to be an important step in my life that takes me to the next level of progression. My sample size is lol-irrelevant at 2/5 right now (45-50 hours) but it's about $80/hr including a -$1500 (3.5 hour) session that obliterated my confidence until I realized it was just like a bad 1/2 session and the fish get lucky sometimes.

I'm still "new" compared to the guys that have made it a career but I would certainly advocate taking a shot as long as your BR allows. I waited a little too long but at the end of the day, I went in confident and experienced. I think my $30/hr at 1/2 will translate to $60/hr+ at 2/5.

Beware the downswing Johnny. I started off at 2/5 like gangbusters too.

While I'll pull for you to continue to crush, I put the o/u at when you'll laugh at yourself for this statement at 50 more hours.

+1

You should do yourself a favor and stay humble and just continue learning/studying as much as possible. This game makes fools out of even the best players from time to time which no offense, you 99% aren't one of them just based on probability alone.

Keep crushing, but don't let variance break you like it has so many others. If I had a nickel for every super star that runs hot at 1/2 and 2/5 for a year before getting a reality check I would have been halfway to my Virgin Island retirement plan already.

People call down new players light, nature of suspicious poker players.

New players are also slightly more aggressive, nature of unsuspecting poker players.

venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.

Also very true. Especially when you get to 5/10+ and player pools start to shrink significantly.

DGAF has recommended for this reason to always play at multiple places and never become a "reg" at any one place if you can help it. When people get burned by a good player too many times their natural reaction is to just tighten up and avoid giving action. When you get to this point the live game becomes more about finding ways to cultivate action for yourself rather than simply playing solid poker and waiting for someone to just dump to you.

Although at a big place like Borgata or w/e you can prolly get away with not having to deal with this just playing 2/5 on the weekends.

Johnny, I've been keeping up with your progress and am happy to see that you are winning, but even more happy that you've clearly been inspired to think about poker more deeply (this is obvious from the threads you've been making). I'll try to do that when I take my 2/5 shot as well. Keep it up, sir!

If you're the very cream of the crop top 1-3 players of a small ish player pool, there is a reverse trend that happens once you adapt to the regs adapting to your game. Sure for a short period of time before this happens there will be a adjustment period where you don't make as much as you did when you first started, i acknowledge that. But once you really pinpoint the way players really perceive you, it doesn't matter much anymore; you can figure out ways to exploit that and thus your winrate goes back ⬆️⬆️

I agree.

Having players over folding can be profitable just as having players call you down too light.

However, If you're even good enough to make Money in poker (10% of players) of that 10%, 70% don't even qualify as the player I am describing above. I would guess most of the 2p2 community over estimates their skill & winrate capabilities and thus, assumes i am speaking about them in my prior post earlier ^^^

If the choice is between making $50/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5 only a true ****ing idiot would play 2/5.

Small pool with regs can be a hassle only because it's harder to get paid off playing ABC so you gotta bluff more etc.

you were speaking about me right?


I've seen the regs avoid you thing. I've also see regs start playing like ass clowns trying to sate their egos against you. As P4MS says, it evens out.

Yep, was speaking in general.

I run my little room .

+2

i won $110/h over my last 140 hour sample in a 1/2 500max with 5otb and you can buy in for the biggest stack

berrypatch yo

That's a big game with small blinds.