Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-31-2015, 04:30 PM   #9776
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,732
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nonsense. I only count the 150 hr stretches where I run at 100/hr. The outliers are the stretches where I run bad.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 04:35 PM   #9777
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,673
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a friend who talks about his "hourly" from the past weekend. I get the desire players have to extrapolate results... because wtf at waiting for thousands of hours before you can join the conversation.

150 hours isn't meaningless, if your only 150 hours has you up 1500 bbs, then it is like 85% chance you are a winner... meaning > 0bb / hr... not 85% chance that you are a 10 bb/hr winner.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 04:43 PM   #9778
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ya, but we all know that in this forum, 1bb/hr makes you pretty much a losing player.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 06:08 PM   #9779
sungar78
adept
 
sungar78's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: White Castle
Posts: 1,197
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I have a friend who talks about his "hourly" from the past weekend. I get the desire players have to extrapolate results... because wtf at waiting for thousands of hours before you can join the conversation.

150 hours isn't meaningless, if your only 150 hours has you up 1500 bbs, then it is like 85% chance you are a winner... meaning > 0bb / hr... not 85% chance that you are a 10 bb/hr winner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Ya, but we all know that in this forum, 1bb/hr makes you pretty much a losing player.
I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed that I'm doing a little better than $2/hr overall, or at the very least I'm just not in the 15% losing.

In all seriousness though, all that would really mean is that I need to get better. Which I'm OK w, more $$ is Always the goal.

I should probably still be careful. It's been easy for me in the past to make an extra 2-3k in a short period of time and then blow it rather than keeping it in the vault for when i can't do anything but lose for a while. I think I've been better about that this time.
sungar78 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 06:37 PM   #9780
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,884
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
People grossly overestimate significance of 150 hours block in LLSNL.
<snip>
But in reality, it really is a meaningless sample size.
So much this.

I took my entire log and calculated a winrate for the previous 100 hours after every session. It bounces around like crazy. +$40/hr, -$20/hr, all noise. I don't think a sample below 500 hours is particularly meaningful.

Reposted gigantic figure for a re-hashed discussion:
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 07:30 PM   #9781
RelentlessDoubt
grinder
 
RelentlessDoubt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 689
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
There is nothing wrong with short stacking and nothing wrong with hitting and running. This is a cash game and you can buy-in for whatever amount you want within the limit and leave whenever you want. If this is somehow "hurting the game" then the casino should change its rules and buy-in limits.
Short stacking is good for the game. When you lose people that suck will have more chips. When you win people that suck will focus on beating you. And then everyone else can clean up shop
RelentlessDoubt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 08:12 PM   #9782
DeadMoneyWalking
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeadMoneyWalking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Avatar Archive
Posts: 30,849
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So y'all are saying poker has variance?
DeadMoneyWalking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015, 09:09 PM   #9783
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,732
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
So much this.

I took my entire log and calculated a winrate for the previous 100 hours after every session. It bounces around like crazy. +$40/hr, -$20/hr, all noise. I don't think a sample below 500 hours is particularly meaningful.

Reposted gigantic figure for a re-hashed discussion:
I see youve been making hay in my absence.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 05:54 PM   #9784
letzplayHU
journeyman
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That win rate graph is really interesting. My whole theory right now is studying a lot, like an actual 25% of your poker is studying will increase your win-rate towards the ceiling for that stake, but then you're going to need a few thousands hours to get a decent idea.
letzplayHU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 06:28 PM   #9785
sungar78
adept
 
sungar78's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: White Castle
Posts: 1,197
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by letzplayHU View Post
That win rate graph is really interesting. My whole theory right now is studying a lot, like an actual 25% of your poker is studying will increase your win-rate towards the ceiling for that stake, but then you're going to need a few thousands hours to get a decent idea.
I would agree with this. Most low stakes players benefit a lot more from study as opposed to play. For one you might be losing so play can actually be counterproductive and for two if you are playing the lowest stakes there are almost certainly things that you need to learn, primarily from study, if you want to win more or move up, or else you should be playing higher already.

The only real exception would be if you simply needed to build a bigger br, however most people probably just need to focus on building the means to build a br first.
sungar78 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 09:39 PM   #9786
bodybuilder32
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,423
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does anyone here advocate actually sticking at 1-2 to crush souls at $40-50 an hour, rather than moving up to 2-5 to make a similar amount?

Advantages: less variance, basically printing money every month and never having to fear a downswing.

Disadvantages: never moving up and testing yourself against better players, could be making more at 2-5 if you crush that game

Perhaps Johnny Buzz can weigh in on this. Does anyone here actually prefer 1-2 in terms of $ per hour win-rate?
bodybuilder32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 10:05 PM   #9787
BenzY
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: CT
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Does anyone here advocate actually sticking at 1-2 to crush souls at $40-50 an hour, rather than moving up to 2-5 to make a similar amount?

Advantages: less variance, basically printing money every month and never having to fear a downswing.

Disadvantages: never moving up and testing yourself against better players, could be making more at 2-5 if you crush that game

Perhaps Johnny Buzz can weigh in on this. Does anyone here actually prefer 1-2 in terms of $ per hour win-rate?
1. Don't think you can win $40-50/hr at 1/2

2. You can't be afraid of a downswing if you hope to make any real money in poker

3. There is no such thing as printing money every day, every week, every month, etc (variance doesn't allow such a thing)

I only advocate sticking to 1/2 rather than 2/5 if you are a casual player who is just playing for fun and losing 1000+ would seriously hurt your mental game.

The only other reason to stick with 1/2 is if you don't have the bankroll for 2/5 or are not ready to move up (skill or mental game reasons)
BenzY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 10:20 PM   #9788
DeadMoneyWalking
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeadMoneyWalking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Avatar Archive
Posts: 30,849
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenzY View Post
1. Don't think you can win $40-50/hr at 1/2
If you can you should never leave.
DeadMoneyWalking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2015, 10:43 PM   #9789
bodybuilder32
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,423
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Perhaps it all comes down to how "big" your game plays. My 1-2 probably plays like 2-5 in other parts of the country, so this can affect people's perception of what is possible.

I do believe $40 an hour is possible at my 1-2 game.
bodybuilder32 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 12:21 AM   #9790
progress
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,102
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I mean my god that's just a monster winrate. If the avg stack is 500 or 1k and people straddle all the time then it's basically 2/5. Aesah brought this up in a clp podcast. When your looking at a game, it's important to note how big it plays, how big is the avg pot? That's going to be your indicator of potential winrate and variance.

At most 1/2. Avg stack is 125 bucks and rake is 4 or 5 bucks per hand. 40/hr in that environment over a meaningful sample would be truly remarkable.

That said there may actualy be some 2p2ers that have accomplished it.
progress is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 04:31 AM   #9791
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,093
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Does anyone here advocate actually sticking at 1-2 to crush souls at $40-50 an hour, rather than moving up to 2-5 to make a similar amount?

Advantages: less variance, basically printing money every month and never having to fear a downswing.

Disadvantages: never moving up and testing yourself against better players, could be making more at 2-5 if you crush that game

Perhaps Johnny Buzz can weigh in on this. Does anyone here actually prefer 1-2 in terms of $ per hour win-rate?
I thought crushing 1/2 was the best thing since sliced bread. I read the comments that said it was a life leak that I hadn't tried taking shots at 2/5 and I blew them off.

Then I played 2/5 and realized I WAS A HUGE IDIOT! The game plays so much deeper that your theoretical win-rate is possibly 25-50% higher in theory, assuming same skill level.

I'm glad I played 1/2 for the experience and bankroll but I can already tell 2/5 is going to be an important step in my life that takes me to the next level of progression. My sample size is lol-irrelevant at 2/5 right now (45-50 hours) but it's about $80/hr including a -$1500 (3.5 hour) session that obliterated my confidence until I realized it was just like a bad 1/2 session and the fish get lucky sometimes.

I'm still "new" compared to the guys that have made it a career but I would certainly advocate taking a shot as long as your BR allows. I waited a little too long but at the end of the day, I went in confident and experienced. I think my $30/hr at 1/2 will translate to $60/hr+ at 2/5.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 09:33 AM   #9792
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,732
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Beware the downswing Johnny. I started off at 2/5 like gangbusters too.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 10:46 AM   #9793
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,144
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I think my $30/hr at 1/2 will translate to $60/hr+ at 2/5.
While I'll pull for you to continue to crush, I put the o/u at when you'll laugh at yourself for this statement at 50 more hours.
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 11:52 AM   #9794
FlyLikeABird
old hand
 
FlyLikeABird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,679
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
While I'll pull for you to continue to crush, I put the o/u at when you'll laugh at yourself for this statement at 50 more hours.
+1

You should do yourself a favor and stay humble and just continue learning/studying as much as possible. This game makes fools out of even the best players from time to time which no offense, you 99% aren't one of them just based on probability alone.

Keep crushing, but don't let variance break you like it has so many others. If I had a nickel for every super star that runs hot at 1/2 and 2/5 for a year before getting a reality check I would have been halfway to my Virgin Island retirement plan already.
FlyLikeABird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 12:40 PM   #9795
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

People call down new players light, nature of suspicious poker players.

New players are also slightly more aggressive, nature of unsuspecting poker players.

venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 01:04 PM   #9796
FlyLikeABird
old hand
 
FlyLikeABird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,679
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
People call down new players light, nature of suspicious poker players.

New players are also slightly more aggressive, nature of unsuspecting poker players.

venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
Also very true. Especially when you get to 5/10+ and player pools start to shrink significantly.

DGAF has recommended for this reason to always play at multiple places and never become a "reg" at any one place if you can help it. When people get burned by a good player too many times their natural reaction is to just tighten up and avoid giving action. When you get to this point the live game becomes more about finding ways to cultivate action for yourself rather than simply playing solid poker and waiting for someone to just dump to you.

Although at a big place like Borgata or w/e you can prolly get away with not having to deal with this just playing 2/5 on the weekends.
FlyLikeABird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 01:52 PM   #9797
dunderstron!
adept
 
dunderstron!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Posts: 842
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Johnny, I've been keeping up with your progress and am happy to see that you are winning, but even more happy that you've clearly been inspired to think about poker more deeply (this is obvious from the threads you've been making). I'll try to do that when I take my 2/5 shot as well. Keep it up, sir!
dunderstron! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 02:05 PM   #9798
Pay4Myschool
Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad
 
Pay4Myschool's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Michigan / California
Posts: 7,473
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
People call down new players light, nature of suspicious poker players.

New players are also slightly more aggressive, nature of unsuspecting poker players.

venice had always said this, once regs get to know you, expect WR to drop.
If you're the very cream of the crop top 1-3 players of a small ish player pool, there is a reverse trend that happens once you adapt to the regs adapting to your game. Sure for a short period of time before this happens there will be a adjustment period where you don't make as much as you did when you first started, i acknowledge that. But once you really pinpoint the way players really perceive you, it doesn't matter much anymore; you can figure out ways to exploit that and thus your winrate goes back ⬆️⬆️
Pay4Myschool is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 02:14 PM   #9799
ogabay
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: 6g1p
Posts: 1,368
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
If you're the very cream of the crop top 1-3 players of a small ish player pool, there is a reverse trend that happens once you adapt to the regs adapting to your game. Sure for a short period of time before this happens there will be a adjustment period where you don't make as much as you did when you first started, i acknowledge that. But once you really pinpoint the way players really perceive you, it doesn't matter much anymore; you can figure out ways to exploit that and thus your winrate goes back ⬆️⬆️
I agree.

Having players over folding can be profitable just as having players call you down too light.
ogabay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2015, 02:28 PM   #9800
Pay4Myschool
Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad
 
Pay4Myschool's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Michigan / California
Posts: 7,473
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

However, If you're even good enough to make Money in poker (10% of players) of that 10%, 70% don't even qualify as the player I am describing above. I would guess most of the 2p2 community over estimates their skill & winrate capabilities and thus, assumes i am speaking about them in my prior post earlier ^^^
Pay4Myschool is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:20 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive