Get all STDs looked at ASAP
The winrate is pretty straightforward:
Total $ / total hours
It means near nothing at 100 hours, but the fact that it is +$17 rather than -$25 is a good indicator that you will make it to hour 200 and beyond
The standard deviation (std # you posted) basically is a scale of how wide your results range in a given set sample period. The period most often used is an hour.
In theory, the majority of your hourly results would fit in between -$157 and $185. The distribution of results is by no means bound by -$157 and $185, it is just that the further a result falls from +$17 in one hour, the rarer it is. >99% of your results would fall between -3 standard deviations and +3 standard deviations. The distribution of these results would look like a bell curve.
** this is all for actual independent random data over big samples - 100 hours of poker does not actually meet either requirement... but in the absence of a better method - we will abuse sound statistical theory.
Results compounded many times over still will have a range of outcomes... these include heaters, downswings, etc... each specific result (like money made in the next 500 hours) - would have a probability associated with it. This is why these numbers are important when determining potential downswings / probability of that occurring / bankroll requirements. However, by the time any of us have enough personal data to make any use of it.. well, by then the value of knowing those numbers has passed (after you have played 10,000 hours - you don't need to know the BR requirements). So all of us are best off just going by the anecdotal advice of grinders past... play with 20 buy ins. If you lose it at NL - get better or run better.
(* hourly results are too fine grained to actually be normally distributed, but any distribution compounded many times approaches the bell curve)
Last edited by bip!; 01-29-2015 at 01:04 PM.