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Old 01-28-2015, 09:17 AM   #8726
ZippyThePinhead
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Do you guys go after small edges (such as betting river light) as much as being anal about how much you are below max BI?
Yup. Bet/fold for thin value greatly increases my hourly.

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Old 01-28-2015, 09:28 AM   #8727
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Think Dickie was being rhetorical and snarky (as only Dickie can) lol.

in b4 Dickie claims to be 100% earnest.
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Old 01-29-2015, 11:13 AM   #8728
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What's the live 1/2nl equivalent of the online version of "a winning player can lose over 100K hands" 50K? Or can a winning player lose at live 1/2nl over a 100k hand sample size? tks.
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Old 01-29-2015, 11:29 AM   #8729
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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What's the live 1/2nl equivalent of the online version of "a winning player can lose over 100K hands" 50K? Or can a winning player lose at live 1/2nl over a 100k hand sample size? tks.

A solid winner in a 1/2 game should not lose more than a couple of hundred hours in a row.

The numbers that are relevant are winrate and standard deviation of your results. You may never figure out a very precise winrate - but based on collective wisdom, 10 bb / hr is possible and very solid ($20/hr). Typical standard deviation for a 1/2 winner should be on the order of ~$120/hr or maybe a bit higher. Together, those numbers can give probability of downswing depth and duration. What almost everybody fails to account for when they decide "they run bad"... is they are typically not a disciplined $20/hr winner with $120/hr standard deviation. They are most likely a near breakeven player who uses stats from hot streaks in contrast to current cold streaks to (erroneously) deduce they run horrible.
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Old 01-29-2015, 11:34 AM   #8730
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Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
What's the live 1/2nl equivalent of the online version of "a winning player can lose over 100K hands" 50K? Or can a winning player lose at live 1/2nl over a 100k hand sample size? tks.

Or more specific to your question... anyone breaking even over 10k~15k+ hands at live 1/2 should blame their play, not variance.
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:09 PM   #8731
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I just run bad.
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:32 PM   #8732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
A solid winner in a 1/2 game should not lose more than a couple of hundred hours in a row.

The numbers that are relevant are winrate and standard deviation of your results. You may never figure out a very precise winrate - but based on collective wisdom, 10 bb / hr is possible and very solid ($20/hr). Typical standard deviation for a 1/2 winner should be on the order of ~$120/hr or maybe a bit higher. Together, those numbers can give probability of downswing depth and duration. What almost everybody fails to account for when they decide "they run bad"... is they are typically not a disciplined $20/hr winner with $120/hr standard deviation. They are most likely a near breakeven player who uses stats from hot streaks in contrast to current cold streaks to (erroneously) deduce they run horrible.
I'm a stats donk so I'm not sure how to interpret:

$/hour StD: $171.48
$/hr earned: $14.04

Over a decent-sized sample, how do I interpret these stats? Admittedly, this is over 100 hours so I know lolsamplesize, but I really don't know what these figures even mean.
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:59 PM   #8733
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Get all STDs looked at ASAP

The winrate is pretty straightforward:
Total $ / total hours

It means near nothing at 100 hours, but the fact that it is +$17 rather than -$25 is a good indicator that you will make it to hour 200 and beyond

The standard deviation (std # you posted) basically is a scale of how wide your results range in a given set sample period. The period most often used is an hour.

In theory, the majority of your hourly results would fit in between -$157 and $185. The distribution of results is by no means bound by -$157 and $185, it is just that the further a result falls from +$17 in one hour, the rarer it is. >99% of your results would fall between -3 standard deviations and +3 standard deviations. The distribution of these results would look like a bell curve.
** this is all for actual independent random data over big samples - 100 hours of poker does not actually meet either requirement... but in the absence of a better method - we will abuse sound statistical theory.

Results compounded many times over still will have a range of outcomes... these include heaters, downswings, etc... each specific result (like money made in the next 500 hours) - would have a probability associated with it. This is why these numbers are important when determining potential downswings / probability of that occurring / bankroll requirements. However, by the time any of us have enough personal data to make any use of it.. well, by then the value of knowing those numbers has passed (after you have played 10,000 hours - you don't need to know the BR requirements). So all of us are best off just going by the anecdotal advice of grinders past... play with 20 buy ins. If you lose it at NL - get better or run better.

(* hourly results are too fine grained to actually be normally distributed, but any distribution compounded many times approaches the bell curve)

Last edited by bip!; 01-29-2015 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 01-29-2015, 01:06 PM   #8734
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By the way - don't follow BR advice at 1/2... just focus on trying to win AND play with an amount that you feel comfortable with.
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:02 PM   #8735
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3200 hours. Standard deviation is $1722 per hour. Win rate is 100/hour.

Currently in worst downswing ever.


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Old 01-29-2015, 02:10 PM   #8736
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Wow, you're awesome!
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:14 PM   #8737
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Wow, you're awesome!


Home games are.

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Old 01-29-2015, 02:14 PM   #8738
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Stakes / BI?
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:27 PM   #8739
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Stakes / BI?
The last year the game has been 10-25.

It's all plo and the cap on the buy in is 1k when we start. I know I know. Silly rule. As the chips fly around you can reload up to the big stack.

I rarely get thru one bullet. I'm usually in for 5kish. (And recently a lot more) The beginning part of my sample was much smaller 2 5 and some 5 10, mostly hold em.

The home game scene shifted a little over a year ago and now it's almost all plo.

The avg night there is 60k or so on table. The biggest session ever was last summer when there was 300k+ on table.

My biggest downswing was 17k in late 2013. Then 33k in summer 2014. Records are made to be broken and I just hit a 66k downer.

I'm in a 300 hour break even streak and my longest breakeven stretch came in 2013. 500 hours.

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Old 01-29-2015, 02:27 PM   #8740
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
In theory, the majority of your hourly results would fit in between -$157 and $185. The distribution of results is by no means bound by -$157 and $185, it is just that the further a result falls from +$17 in one hour, the rarer it is. >99% of your results would fall between -3 standard deviations and +3 standard deviations. The distribution of these results would look like a bell curve.
** this is all for actual independent random data over big samples - 100 hours of poker does not actually meet either requirement... but in the absence of a better method - we will abuse sound statistical theory.
You know, I've just started teaching myself statistics and have been wondering about this. We really have no reason to believe that hours of poker playing are normally distributed--ESPECIALLY because if you are playing a single session each hour probably isn't even independent of the other hours (i.e. you or your opponents might play differently depending on what has happened previously), meaning the Central Limit Theorem may not even apply.

Is the reason we use normal distributions just because we know it's bad but don't have a better way?
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:51 PM   #8741
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Yeah - pretty much. Think of it like the difference between an engineer and a professor... at the end of the day, somebody has to build the ****ing bridge.
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:24 PM   #8742
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Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
Is the reason we use normal distributions just because we know it's bad but don't have a better way?
Yes. Mostly.

Sometimes we know the data isn't normal, but don't know any better way of dealing with it and just say "****it" because in practice (engineer here) it doesn't really matter.

Other times (far more often) people don't realize that the super basic statistics they think they know, about means and standard deviation, don't really apply but they use them anyway.
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:38 PM   #8743
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But this is a case where if you pretend the data are normally distributed, it predicts things that are patently absurd.

For example, let's assume a normal distribution with mean 14 and standard deviation 171.48. I think, if I am reading the z-score table correctly, that winning $300 or more in one hour, or approximately 1.66 standard deviations from the mean, will happen less than 5% of the time.

In a 1/2 game with $300 stacks, this would seem to predict that on average we will double up once every 20 hours. This to me is clearly wrong (I'd think it would happen much more often but be averaged out by losses in other hours), and so much so that we should not be using a normal distribution. To extend your analogy, we shouldn't be saying we built a bridge if it won't hold up a car.
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:42 PM   #8744
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^ You have to get more into central limit theorem and also how standard deviation applies for data sets without regards to distribution.

Even bound distributions compounded repeatedly turn into normal distributions. The only argument against poker (is not what one hour results look like) - it is the dependence of results on previous results.
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:47 PM   #8745
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I bow out here... in the end - this kind of info gets used incorrectly far more than correctly. (*probably include me in that too.)

"Yep, you run bad... buy in again" is the message that needs to get out there
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:49 PM   #8746
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I made $24.76/hr with a std. Dev/hr of $59,604 in a 900 hr sample at $1/2. Am I a maniac or is my poker income app degenerate?
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:52 PM   #8747
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You probably have corrupt data in there (like zero hour results and such)
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Old 01-29-2015, 03:57 PM   #8748
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
oh I had been meaning to post this here, thought it was kind of interesting



someone on a different site said something to the effect of "i just go and play poker for six hours and i typically make $200", and I thought nah he doesn't know what he's talking about, there isn't really a typical session it's all over the place! I bet he's just some dunce who played five sessions and got lucky! So I sorted all my sessions by win and made a chart. Probably 60/40 2/5-1/2, several hundred sessions. Basically it's just a really thin line of each session in descending order -- long/flat means lots of sessions fall in that range, short/sharp means few sessions are. So if you take a 25% chunk horizontally it means 25% of my sessions fall in that range. As I thought, yeah there's no such thing as a "typical win". As expected it makes a pretty parabolic curve.

But you all knew that already.

DK ^ reorganize this as a histogram and then people will understand better.
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Old 01-29-2015, 04:01 PM   #8749
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Ah down to $133.95. Hourly dropped to $24.40. Embarrassing ****.
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Old 01-29-2015, 04:03 PM   #8750
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Ah down to $133.95. Hourly dropped to $24.40. Embarrassing ****.

. Very solid results ^. Good stuff spike
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