Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-06-2015, 12:43 PM   #8551
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,038
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by troutbum97 View Post
Questions:

Some here say that a winrate of 10BB/hr is the absolute ceiling for a sample size of thousands of hours, and any rate higher than that is too small of a sample size. Does everyone agree on that?
I don't think all agree at least at the lowest stakes (ie 1/2)
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2015, 12:43 PM   #8552
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ The original post in the thread addresses your question best.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-08-2015, 01:31 PM   #8553
Phatty
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 1,834
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm of the opinion that you really can't ever nail down anything too reliable because the landscape of poker changes too often and too quickly. By the time you get any "meaningful" sample on any live room or online poker site, the landscape when you started, during, and stopped taking a sample has changed or will change for the next x hands/hours you play. You can still probably glean some information but everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Phatty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:38 PM   #8554
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

To those wondering what a normal "winning percentage" is (I was curious too! Even though it doesn't matter, it's all one long session, etc) I've tried to build a simulation model.

I decided to gather data by tracking strong players on live at the bike. I would sort each hand into a range of winnings

I only gathered 122 hands which wasn't nearly enough, especially given that so much of a live player's winrate comes from the big hands that only happen once every several hours. Also the players I tracked ran pretty hot. So using the little data I had as a guide I kind of guessed at what a per-hand distribution should look like.



So the simulation works by running every hand like, you've got a 5/1706 chance of winning 120bb, a 10/1706 chance of winning 85bb, and so on.

I don't really think those numbers are accurate, seems like you should be winning or losing a stack more often than I've put, so if anyone has ideas for better numbers let me know and I will recompile it. Or if there's interest I could even make it so that you can input your own frequencies.

These are also based on strong players who play a pretty wide range of hands, the simulation results would probably be a lot different for players who don't win as much and play a lot tighter.

What did surprise me was that I expected results to regress upwards a lot faster. I figured 1 hour sessions would be imperceptibly above 50/50 but if a 5.5bb/hr crusher played 10hr sessions he'd win like 70%. It seems the difference in the amount of winning sessions if you tend to play a few hours longer is pretty small.


Link to simulator (no download, it's just flash): http://www.fastswf.com/lU9qrCE

Last edited by DK Barrel; 01-09-2015 at 04:49 PM.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:45 PM   #8555
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In other words, a winning player wins during his heater sessions, in which he wins close to 70% of hands.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:49 PM   #8556
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
In other words, a winning player wins during his heater sessions, in which he wins close to 70% of hands.
That doesn't seem right?

I'm guessing my typical monster sessions boil down to simply winning a couple of big hands, so it doesn't really matter what I did on the other 99% of hands (so long as I didn't spew / run bad on those).

And DK, I'm also still expecting the hours/session to basically be the only factor in determining a winning players session winrate. You're saying your results say otherwise?

GcluelessstatsnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:51 PM   #8557
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You have the right idea but much too small of a sample size. Although 70% for 10 hour sessions from a top player is not far off IMO
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:53 PM   #8558
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
That doesn't seem right?

I'm guessing my typical monster sessions boil down to simply winning a couple of big hands, so it doesn't really matter what I did on the other 99% of hands (so long as I didn't spew / run bad on those).

And DK, I'm also still expecting the hours/session to basically be the only factor in determining a winning players session winrate. You're saying your results say otherwise?

GcluelessstatsnoobG
Oh no, of course longer sessions means you win more often. I just expected the difference in win% between short and long sessions to be a lot more significant.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:55 PM   #8559
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There is something to be said for "getting on a roll."

Not in a results oriented way, but I think everyone knows those nights where you hit early and the entire table just melts under the pressure or the rest of the night. Might this play a factor? Run good can affect win rate for the rest of the night not e cause of how we play but how our opponents perceive us.

Still shouldn't be enough to explain the results of the model though.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:57 PM   #8560
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Expected win rate, standard deviation, and session length all weigh in to win % GG - but yes, assuming players are similar in WR and stdev - yet session length varies over a huge range, win % differences are just a function of session length among like players.

Looking at and trying to evaluate/analyze your game by session win % is a bad approach though.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 04:57 PM   #8561
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Oh no, of course longer sessions means you win more often. I just expected the difference in win% between short and long sessions to be a lot more significant.
Oh, ok, I see.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 05:00 PM   #8562
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A compassion of percentage would have no effect on how often you win.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 05:02 PM   #8563
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looking at this stat in our records would typically be someone trying to fit data to their pre-formed conclusion.. "I run bad", etc.

I don't think that was DK's purpose - he was just curious about what is a reasonable rate.

FWIW - my win % is ~61%.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 05:09 PM   #8564
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yeah, mostly curiosity. Nobody really understands live variance, you just don't play enough hands (or track finely enough) for stdev to tell you much. Not like online where results are saved hand by hand and you've got a sample of hundreds of thousands. So I thought it'd be neat to work on a simulator.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 05:18 PM   #8565
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

stdev actually is the one thing you can get fairly accurate. It converges rather quickly. (Or explained better - stdev is tough to budge after a decent number of samples). Winrate is the part of the equation that is never settled in live sample sizes.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2015, 09:36 PM   #8566
Soncy
Pooh-Bah
 
Soncy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,382
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
To those wondering what a normal "winning percentage" is (I was curious too! Even though it doesn't matter, it's all one long session, etc) I've tried to build a simulation model.
DK!
Soncy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2015, 08:35 PM   #8567
fun101
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,239
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Wow, impressive?

Can't recall, were you in on the 20 session winstreak prop bet? If so, and you meet the requirements (I believe we said no hit/run sessions, so all sessions >= 3 hours?), might be time for us to pay up...

Gcongrats!G
Now I am on a 26 session winning streak, and the last 21 count for the prop bet. I think I won the prop bet. Unless someone else won the prop bet while I was taking a small break from poker and 2+2?

My total cumulative live winning percentage since I started recording is 80%. I chase losses, and play marathon sessions when stuck so I understand that this would be difficult for most people to achieve.
fun101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2015, 10:26 PM   #8568
lukeamac
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Australia
Posts: 272
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
There is something to be said for "getting on a roll."

Not in a results oriented way, but I think everyone knows those nights where you hit early and the entire table just melts under the pressure or the rest of the night. Might this play a factor? Run good can affect win rate for the rest of the night not e cause of how we play but how our opponents perceive us.

Still shouldn't be enough to explain the results of the model though.
Discussed this exact thought process the other day. Certainly no "running good" from the deck, dealer, etc makes any sense as the cards have no memory. However, on those golden nights, even the nights where you just run on EV and have stack two things happen which do go towards win rate:

1. Players hold you in higher regard (winning image)

2. You play better in a better frame of mind.

So winning, running up stack, running well certainly helps. I know CLP often provide guidance around playing longer sessions when you have a winning image.

Cheers Mac

Sent from my SM-N900 using 2+2 Forums
lukeamac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 12:04 PM   #8569
max_potter
stranger
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 13
Big standard deviation for a cash game live player?

Hello all,

I am a cash game player (live), and I played a lot last year for about 12 months.
I usually played 2/4 no limit HE in France, and occasionally went to LV or London. During this year, I recorded all my result on the Poker Manager app.
Then it gave me the following stats :
- Hours played : 1200 H
- Winrate : 10bb/H => 40bb/100 or 20BB/100 (100 hands equals 4H)
- Standard déviation : 62bb/H => 250bb/100 or 125BB/100
- Percentual Wins/Losses : 59/41

My standard deviation seems huge to me… What does that mean ? Do I play too Lag ? Because I don’t have this impression, even though I like 3-betting light sometimes and play aggressively enough during my sessions.

Thx for your opinions !


FYI, I decided to stop playing so much last september because I was not that happy with this activity, but I keep playing once or twice a week !
max_potter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 01:18 PM   #8570
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by fun101 View Post
Now I am on a 26 session winning streak, and the last 21 count for the prop bet. I think I won the prop bet. Unless someone else won the prop bet while I was taking a small break from poker and 2+2?

My total cumulative live winning percentage since I started recording is 80%. I chase losses, and play marathon sessions when stuck so I understand that this would be difficult for most people to achieve.
Nice!

If you've won the prop bet, come join us in the chat thread and force those of us in on it to pay up. The award is choosing our avatars for a month!

GavatarvirginG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 01:40 PM   #8571
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by lukeamac View Post
Discussed this exact thought process the other day. Certainly no "running good" from the deck, dealer, etc makes any sense as the cards have no memory. However, on those golden nights, even the nights where you just run on EV and have stack two things happen which do go towards win rate:

1. Players hold you in higher regard (winning image)

2. You play better in a better frame of mind.

So winning, running up stack, running well certainly helps. I know CLP often provide guidance around playing longer sessions when you have a winning image.

Cheers Mac

Sent from my SM-N900 using 2+2 Forums
I definitely agree with this and I remember first time that I became consciously aware of my image when someone pretty much snap open-folded 2 pairs to my barrel.

However, on the flip side, I kind of wish a lot more whales would follow the same idea and stay longer.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 06:37 PM   #8572
lukeamac
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Australia
Posts: 272
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I definitely agree with this and I remember first time that I became consciously aware of my image when someone pretty much snap open-folded 2 pairs to my barrel.

However, on the flip side, I kind of wish a lot more whales would follow the same idea and stay longer.
Richard, they know they are put of their depth though and run as soon as they can haha, that's the difference. Subconsciously they know they have lucked their way to what they have in front of them haha

Sent from my SM-N900 using 2+2 Forums
lukeamac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 07:58 PM   #8573
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by lukeamac View Post
Richard, they know they are put of their depth though and run as soon as they can haha, that's the difference. Subconsciously they know they have lucked their way to what they have in front of them haha

Sent from my SM-N900 using 2+2 Forums
Question is then, do you think people that leave to protect their win feel the same way?
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 09:05 PM   #8574
JERRYJ0NES
grinder
 
JERRYJ0NES's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: hold up, hold up, hold up...
Posts: 646
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ive been grinding on bovada 25nl, but I want to get into live poker. I live in tampa which is a decent poker town. I dont have 4k for 200nl (more like 1k) but one of my local room spreads a 1/1 NL 80$ max buy in. Do you think Id be better off grinding that til I get enough to shot take 200nl or just stay online for now til i get a proper live roll? Any advice would be helpful.
JERRYJ0NES is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2015, 09:12 PM   #8575
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you're beating 25NL online, shouldn't be a problem to crush any 1/2 live, especially where you're playing.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:55 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive