[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 319 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.33%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.59%

5-7.5

8 10.13%

7.5-10

15 18.99%

10+

27 34.18%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 22.78%

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09-25-2014 , 04:14 PM

#7951

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

@snowball

Ha, where are you at now? 7-9 bi? That's more probable and especially playing 5/10.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 04:15 PM

#7952

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

Real easy to lose 10k in a 1k+ bi 2/5 game imo

Real easy might be a stretch but very doable I agree. But I'm pretty sure MDL is $500 no?

Quote

09-25-2014 , 04:19 PM

#7953

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

MDL is 500 cap.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 04:19 PM

#7954

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

Real easy to lose 10k in a 1k+ bi 2/5 game imo

Not easy to lose 12k+ in a 500 cap game filled with droolers.

These 2/5 "regs" are not good at poker.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 04:46 PM

#7955

nutinsider

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 342

Quote:

Originally Posted by I.G.

Talking to some of the other MDL regs last night, a couple have had 25+ buy in down swings as well as 600+ hour breakeven stretches at 2/5. They both now think a minimum of 35 buyins for a roll is essential. The standard 20 isn't enough. That way you don't have to drop back down in stakes if things go south and you can comfortably ride out the variance tsunami.

They both had ended up with their case money on the table at one point. Luckily they both pulled through but said it was extremely difficult to play well while you are "up against it."

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using 2+2 Forums

I play mostly plo but 500 ish hours is my.longest downswing. Sample size is 3k hours. 10-25 plo is my usual game. Biggest dollar amount.stuck was 32k. That 600 hour+ downswing in 2-5 hold em sounds high tho.....

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

09-25-2014 , 04:47 PM

#7956

FlyLikeABird

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,679

Even a 5k downswing at 500 cap you probably have some serious issues with your game (in most rooms). 25 buy ins is ridiculous.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 05:05 PM

#7957

Snowball2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 8,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

@snowball

Ha, where are you at now? 7-9 bi? That's more probable and especially playing 5/10.

I play more 5/5 than 2/5 these days but in terms of bbs/hour it's kind of scary

Actually downswing at 5/T hasnt been as bad as 2/5 & 5/5 in terms of bbs.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 05:43 PM

#7958

corlath

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,196

Quote:

Originally Posted by I.G.

This would be an awesome level.

Fish: you should feel totally fine with losing 25bi in my game.

Decent regs who actually consider bankroll: you should wait till you have 35bi total to play in my game.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 05:44 PM

#7959

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

MDL is 100bbs yes? Ima go ahead and say a 25 bi downswing is close to unacceptable for live 2/5.

Well theoretically a winning player could run bad forever, in any format -- though that's obviously unlikely. A winning player with a loose/high-variance style (somebody like Bart Hanson, SunChips, King Fish) probably has a ~5-10% chance of going through a 30BI+ downswing, depending on exactly how loose they are.

Personally I think that to play for a living you need to be rolled really, really deep, because low-winrate or breakeven stretches are basically "downswings" when your running expenses are accounted for (as you're eating your liferoll and will have to replenish it when you run better).

Quote

09-25-2014 , 06:50 PM

#7960

de4df1sh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6,893

This has kind of made me rethink my current stakes.

Should I be exclusively playing the 500$ game with a 25bi roll? Am I being too conservative here?

I am fulltime with minimal minimal overhead and wife actually contributes 500-700 per month for me to invest as I see fit (I handle all the finances)

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:06 PM

#7961

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,489

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

If you are full time pro the short answer is yes

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:21 PM

#7962

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by de4df1sh

If you have minimal overhead and your wife gives you $500 a month on top of your current income you can afford to be a little more liberal with your BRM, but in general yes, you should err on the nitty side BRM-wise.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:22 PM

#7963

Gatsb

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,294

This website is your friend:

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Sure, beating 2/5 is easy for a good portion of 2p2ers posting itt, but do you honestly think that someone beating it for 10bbs/100 + over a decent sample size has never gone on an insane downswing? I've been on a 10k + downer in these games and thought everyone was a wizard for 2 months. This **** happens, prepare for it.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:33 PM

#7964

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gatsb

This website is your friend:

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

This, but also: when you're making risk of ruin calculations, keep in mind that your "true" winrate isn't what you're taking off the table, but what you add to your roll/savings. So if you're making 10bb/hr, but you're spending 6bb/hr, then for ROR purposes your winrate is 4bb/hr.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:47 PM

#7965

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,489

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gatsb

I have not bothered looking at the site you poasted up. I know of exactly zero people whose games I respect that has gone on a 10k downer in live 2/5 no limit texas style holdem (no offense). The sample size that I am referring to is by all standards MASSIVE.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:53 PM

#7966

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by squid face

Then you clearly don't respect LAG crushers, because mathematically it's pretty inevitable that a good LAG will go on monster downswings periodically.

Plugging in King Fish's 2/5 numbers ($75/hr winrate, $875/hr standard deviation) to Pokerdope, you get that he has a roughly 30% chance of going on a $10k+ downswing at any given point.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 07:56 PM

#7967

Randal_Graves

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 10,183

"LAG crusher" at 2/5 500 cap is a unicorn. They don't exist.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:02 PM

#7968

BaconMaker

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 555

Just an offhand question to anyone, do you find yourself on a downswing playing in a specific room, in a specific game, or in every game in any room?

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:07 PM

#7969

squid face

ChatThreadPrez

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 11,489

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aleksei

well there u go.

I will just say that I am pretty dialed into the scene and have been so for quite a while. And I know a lot of pros and have discussed it at length with them.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:10 PM

#7970

Snowball2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 8,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaconMaker

Just an offhand question to anyone, do you find yourself on a downswing playing in a specific room, in a specific game, or in every game in any room?

It wouldnt be a downswing if you werent losing everywhere no?

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:16 PM

#7971

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randal_Graves

"LAG crusher" at 2/5 500 cap is a unicorn. They don't exist.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...wtard-1429491/

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:23 PM

#7972

RobFarha

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by squid face

well there u go.

I will just say that I am pretty dialed into the scene and have been so for quite a while. And I know a lot of pros and have discussed it at length with them.

As we both know, if your losing 10k at 2/5 there's a lot more play bad this run bad in there.

I'm not shy on the raise button and I haven't even been on a 5k downswing.

What the hell are people doing to lose 10k in live 2/5? It's more you than the cards, I promise.

#varianceisacrutch

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:28 PM

#7973

Aleksei

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,116

Get oversetted/overflushed/KK<AA five times in a row for stacks. Bam. 3-5k gone in a night.

It can happen.

Quote

09-25-2014 , 08:29 PM

#7974

BaconMaker

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 555

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowball2

It wouldnt be a downswing if you werent losing everywhere no?

That's an obvious point to make, well taken. I can see, though, how someone might get stuck in a particular game and think it's their fault, not the game's fault, and forget to try a different room or game and get out of the losing routine.