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Old 09-25-2014, 02:41 PM   #7951
I.G.
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Nothing like a 16 buyin downswing @ 2/5 to make you rethink your ENTIRE approach to the game.....

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Talking to some of the other MDL regs last night, a couple have had 25+ buy in down swings as well as 600+ hour breakeven stretches at 2/5. They both now think a minimum of 35 buyins for a roll is essential. The standard 20 isn't enough. That way you don't have to drop back down in stakes if things go south and you can comfortably ride out the variance tsunami.

They both had ended up with their case money on the table at one point. Luckily they both pulled through but said it was extremely difficult to play well while you are "up against it."

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Old 09-25-2014, 03:04 PM   #7952
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you are a pro and you have the last of your money on the table, you did something horribly wrong before that in order to make that happen.

If you are a rec player who can just reload later from your life roll then it's very different obviously.
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Old 09-25-2014, 03:34 PM   #7953
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by I.G. View Post
Talking to some of the other MDL regs last night, a couple have had 25+ buy in down swings as well as 600+ hour breakeven stretches at 2/5. They both now think a minimum of 35 buyins for a roll is essential. The standard 20 isn't enough. That way you don't have to drop back down in stakes if things go south and you can comfortably ride out the variance tsunami.
MDL is 100bbs yes? Ima go ahead and say a 25 bi downswing is close to unacceptable for live 2/5.
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Old 09-25-2014, 03:35 PM   #7954
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

25 BI downswing = not a pro poker player.
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:09 PM   #7955
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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MDL is 100bbs yes? Ima go ahead and say a 25 bi downswing is close to unacceptable for live 2/5.
This scares me
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:13 PM   #7956
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Real easy to lose 10k in a 1k+ bi 2/5 game imo
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:14 PM   #7957
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@snowball

Ha, where are you at now? 7-9 bi? That's more probable and especially playing 5/10.
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:15 PM   #7958
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Real easy to lose 10k in a 1k+ bi 2/5 game imo
Real easy might be a stretch but very doable I agree. But I'm pretty sure MDL is $500 no?
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:19 PM   #7959
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

MDL is 500 cap.
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:19 PM   #7960
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Real easy to lose 10k in a 1k+ bi 2/5 game imo
Not easy to lose 12k+ in a 500 cap game filled with droolers.

These 2/5 "regs" are not good at poker.
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Old 09-25-2014, 04:46 PM   #7961
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Talking to some of the other MDL regs last night, a couple have had 25+ buy in down swings as well as 600+ hour breakeven stretches at 2/5. They both now think a minimum of 35 buyins for a roll is essential. The standard 20 isn't enough. That way you don't have to drop back down in stakes if things go south and you can comfortably ride out the variance tsunami.

They both had ended up with their case money on the table at one point. Luckily they both pulled through but said it was extremely difficult to play well while you are "up against it."

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I play mostly plo but 500 ish hours is my.longest downswing. Sample size is 3k hours. 10-25 plo is my usual game. Biggest dollar amount.stuck was 32k. That 600 hour+ downswing in 2-5 hold em sounds high tho.....

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Old 09-25-2014, 04:47 PM   #7962
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Even a 5k downswing at 500 cap you probably have some serious issues with your game (in most rooms). 25 buy ins is ridiculous.
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Old 09-25-2014, 05:05 PM   #7963
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@snowball

Ha, where are you at now? 7-9 bi? That's more probable and especially playing 5/10.
I play more 5/5 than 2/5 these days but in terms of bbs/hour it's kind of scary

Actually downswing at 5/T hasnt been as bad as 2/5 & 5/5 in terms of bbs.
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Old 09-25-2014, 05:43 PM   #7964
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by I.G. View Post
Talking to some of the other MDL regs last night, a couple have had 25+ buy in down swings as well as 600+ hour breakeven stretches at 2/5. They both now think a minimum of 35 buyins for a roll is essential. The standard 20 isn't enough. That way you don't have to drop back down in stakes if things go south and you can comfortably ride out the variance tsunami.
This would be an awesome level.

Fish: you should feel totally fine with losing 25bi in my game.

Decent regs who actually consider bankroll: you should wait till you have 35bi total to play in my game.
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Old 09-25-2014, 05:44 PM   #7965
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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MDL is 100bbs yes? Ima go ahead and say a 25 bi downswing is close to unacceptable for live 2/5.
Well theoretically a winning player could run bad forever, in any format -- though that's obviously unlikely. A winning player with a loose/high-variance style (somebody like Bart Hanson, SunChips, King Fish) probably has a ~5-10% chance of going through a 30BI+ downswing, depending on exactly how loose they are.

Personally I think that to play for a living you need to be rolled really, really deep, because low-winrate or breakeven stretches are basically "downswings" when your running expenses are accounted for (as you're eating your liferoll and will have to replenish it when you run better).
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Old 09-25-2014, 06:50 PM   #7966
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This has kind of made me rethink my current stakes.

Should I be exclusively playing the 500$ game with a 25bi roll? Am I being too conservative here?

I am fulltime with minimal minimal overhead and wife actually contributes 500-700 per month for me to invest as I see fit (I handle all the finances)


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Old 09-25-2014, 07:06 PM   #7967
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
This has kind of made me rethink my current stakes.

Should I be exclusively playing the 500$ game with a 25bi roll? Am I being too conservative here?

I am fulltime with minimal minimal overhead and wife actually contributes 500-700 per month for me to invest as I see fit (I handle all the finances)


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If you are full time pro the short answer is yes
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:21 PM   #7968
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
This has kind of made me rethink my current stakes.

Should I be exclusively playing the 500$ game with a 25bi roll? Am I being too conservative here?

I am fulltime with minimal minimal overhead and wife actually contributes 500-700 per month for me to invest as I see fit (I handle all the finances)


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If you have minimal overhead and your wife gives you $500 a month on top of your current income you can afford to be a little more liberal with your BRM, but in general yes, you should err on the nitty side BRM-wise.
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:22 PM   #7969
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This website is your friend:

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Sure, beating 2/5 is easy for a good portion of 2p2ers posting itt, but do you honestly think that someone beating it for 10bbs/100 + over a decent sample size has never gone on an insane downswing? I've been on a 10k + downer in these games and thought everyone was a wizard for 2 months. This **** happens, prepare for it.
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:33 PM   #7970
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This, but also: when you're making risk of ruin calculations, keep in mind that your "true" winrate isn't what you're taking off the table, but what you add to your roll/savings. So if you're making 10bb/hr, but you're spending 6bb/hr, then for ROR purposes your winrate is 4bb/hr.
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:47 PM   #7971
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This website is your friend:

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Sure, beating 2/5 is easy for a good portion of 2p2ers posting itt, but do you honestly think that someone beating it for 10bbs/100 + over a decent sample size has never gone on an insane downswing? I've been on a 10k + downer in these games and thought everyone was a wizard for 2 months. This **** happens, prepare for it.
I have not bothered looking at the site you poasted up. I know of exactly zero people whose games I respect that has gone on a 10k downer in live 2/5 no limit texas style holdem (no offense). The sample size that I am referring to is by all standards MASSIVE.
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:53 PM   #7972
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I have not bothered looking at the site you poasted up. I know of exactly zero people whose games I respect that has gone on a 10k downer in live 2/5 no limit texas style holdem (no offense). The sample size that I am referring to is by all standards MASSIVE.
Then you clearly don't respect LAG crushers, because mathematically it's pretty inevitable that a good LAG will go on monster downswings periodically.

Plugging in King Fish's 2/5 numbers ($75/hr winrate, $875/hr standard deviation) to Pokerdope, you get that he has a roughly 30% chance of going on a $10k+ downswing at any given point.
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Old 09-25-2014, 07:56 PM   #7973
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

"LAG crusher" at 2/5 500 cap is a unicorn. They don't exist.
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Old 09-25-2014, 08:02 PM   #7974
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just an offhand question to anyone, do you find yourself on a downswing playing in a specific room, in a specific game, or in every game in any room?
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Old 09-25-2014, 08:07 PM   #7975
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Then you clearly don't respect LAG crushers, because mathematically it's pretty inevitable that a good LAG will go on monster downswings periodically.

Plugging in King Fish's 2/5 numbers ($75/hr winrate, $875/hr standard deviation) to Pokerdope, you get that he has a roughly 30% chance of going on a $10k+ downswing at any given point.
well there u go.

I will just say that I am pretty dialed into the scene and have been so for quite a while. And I know a lot of pros and have discussed it at length with them.
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