Yeah haha, quite the paradox.

I understand that im not exactly ROBUSTO but am I that significantly under-rolled?

I've read that a good winrate at 1/2 could be around $20/hr. At my casino, though, the maximum buy in is $300 or up to the biggest stack. I usually buy in for $300 and top up when necessary, but I'd say I spend at least 50% of my time at the tables with a stack of $400+ and there are usually at least 3-4 players with as much or more. Of course this varies, but I don't think it'd be out of line to estimate that that average stack is usually around $400.

Is my game playing bigger than the typical 1/2 game at other casinos and can a good player expect to make 50% more hourly if so?

I've made about $45/hr in my first 75 hours in the game and I'm just trying to determine if I'm running hot as the sun or just run of the mill hot. Keep in mind I play mainly Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings and my typical session is 7+ hours. Also, I'm pretty good about leaving bad tables and searching for better ones.

This is Harrah's NOLA btw.

Youre running hot, but not insanely.

Definitely sustainable especially since stack depths run like a 1/3+

That's what I figured. I had one session out of 10 where I got a taste of what it's like to truly run bad. Every flush draw got there...

I'm an old online LHE full ring specialist. Made about $40k total 6-8 tabling 3/6 and 5/10 mainly. Played over 500K hands over a 3 year period so I'm fully aware of what variance looks like. 100k hand breakeven stretch was fun.

I thought poker as a side income was done for me, but I've kind of got my passion back and since I'm a teacher I play to try to put in some decent hours this summer. Just trying to get a feel for what's what in live NLHE.


So is what I described a bigger 1/2 game than usual. How much bigger?

I have no experience personally with 1/2 games but most 1/3 games I've seen around the east coast run with 100-300 buyins, with a table consisting of around 2-3 short stacks (100 or less), 1-2 big stacks (800 or more), and the rest somewhere between 150-350, on average. So that being said your game runs like a very decently stacked 1/3 game and I think $45/hr is definitely sustainable.

Just for some perspective ...

At 30 hands/hr that's 3333 hours, or 1.6 *YEARS* playing 40 hours a week. For a part time player that only puts in 40 hours a month that's SEVEN years.

I really want poker to be a nice supplemental income for me, and so far it has been, but I play 25 hours a month. I try not to think about the fact that I could be a great player but get doomswitched and not win for a few years, but I know the reality of variance. These posts just reaffirm it. I do hope that donkalicious live 1/2 games are going to be much more profitable and less swingy than the reg infested online 3/6 and 5/10 limit games, but variance can still be a mfer.

If people take one thing away from this post it should be to focus on making the correct decisions, not results. If I ever write a nl holdem book I want to start off with a chapter talking about swings and variance. That should be the first thing people understand before they take up the game and then bitch when the call any two cards guy cashes out for 2 grand and they've dropped 2 buyins, not like that happened to me last night or anyrhing

Correct, but people not very familiar with LHE need to realize that my edge over that 1/2 million hand sample was a little under 1 BB/100. That would put me squarely in the good but not great player category for the limits I played.

1BB/100 would translate to $4/100 (BB is twice the big blind) hands at 1/2 NL which would be roughly $1.25/hr. It's not hard to imagine someone who's true edge is that tiny running breakeven or worse for a really, really long time at live poker.

So I guess if my true edge at 1/2 is $20/hr that would be the rough equivalent of 15BB/100 in limit poker. Those kind of winrates don't exist in limit poker but if they did I can't imagine that type of player breaking even for anywhere close to 100k hands.

if you're only playing the weekends you may very well run better or so i am told... it hasn't shown up in my small sample though. i actually have better winrate mon-wed than the rest of the week. i would expect those numbers to change when i get a bigger sample, idk we shall see.

so I am not a live grind but I will soon become one and I was thnking of a few things. Apparently when you total the amount of tips you give it comes down to approx 15% of total winnings. Say you play 200h per month, 10 months per year thats 2000 hours. Say you got a 30$/h winrate thats 60k a year, with $9k per year going in tips. Thats $900 dollar a month for a heavy grinder. These numbers might be a bit inflated but you get the idea. I was wondering if I should consider this to be standard and just tip the average 1$ per small pot and 2$-3$ per big pot, or if that in the long run that simply costs too much money.

Please don't ask about the right amount of tipping here.

For a few reasons:
1) There is an entire thread dedicated to tipping in the Brick & Mortar forum.
2) People have strong opinions that I would rather not bog this thread down with.
3) There are a number of variables including game (1/2 vs 2/5) that make it very different.

fair enough, my bad, thought tipping would be correlated with winrates/bankrolls and wasnt aware of the tipping thread

Sorry, I could have given you a better answer last night.

Long story short, tipping is considered customary (and very strongly encouraged). But not required.

It is true that if you are tipping per pot, you will give up a % of your overall win rate. But at the same time, the dealers there are likely helping to facilitate you ability to make money in other ways.

They keep the integrity of the game, speed up the dealing process (as compated to a likely slower home game dealer) keep track of action, and other things that can be beneficial.

If you are winning $30/hour at 1/2 (or 2/5) that means that your expectancy per hand is ~$1 per hand. So, if you are seeing 3 - 4 extra hands per hour with a good dealer, then the $4 that you tipped them from won pots is pretty much a wash. Obviously the higher that you win rate is, the more that the dealer is helping you out.

Hey guys, I've been sitting around with 35+ BI in my safe at home to grind 1/2 fulltime and I was thinking of keeping some of this cash in the stock market or other investments.

To my other full time grinders; Do you guys keep that much cash sitting around?

I feel like I could be putting a % of my bankroll to work for me instead of sitting around in my safe instead of being lazy.

35 BI? $7,000?

No way I'd keep that much at the house just for playing 1/2. I don't generally keep more than I'm ok losing in a weekend (pretty much between possible trips to the bank) on hand.
I would certainly look to invest some of that or put it into a low yield bank account at least. There's likely no reason to ever have more than 10 buy ins on hand at any point and even that is likely pretty high.

Now I'm saying that you shouldn't have the money available in case of a prolonged down swing, but keeping it in cash in your house is just a bad idea.

bro I read this and you similar post in chat. I think there are some major leaks in your game if you are losing this much. Are you posting hands? Sorry I don't know about your PGC but I will check it later.

My guess you are getting into some bad habits and losing more in spots you shouldn't/getting less value in others.

GL....take a break, post some hands, really think about and be honest with where your holes are.

+1 (and I don't believe Chippy has updated his PGC thread since turning pro)

Losing $4K+ at 1/3NL- (I'm assuming no 2/5 mixed in there?) seems more than run bad to me (although that may be cuz I'm a fish-on-a-heater-who-has-never-experienced-a-500bb-downswing).

GcluelessNLnoobG

And you're also a world class nit.

Compliment appreciated!

But seriously, I don't know exactly what sorta downswing Chippy is on (especially regarding stakes), but ex. a $4K one at 1/3 NL is 13BIs, which seems a little towards the unlikely side of things for a winning player. Might also be a function of all of a sudden putting in way more hours, and the added pressure of this now being his sole source of income, all of which I'm sure could screw with him mentally.

GbutIcouldbewrongG

Currently playing "professionally" & recently got my BR up to 15k and decided to start taking shots @ 5/10 $500-$1000, instead of my normal 2/3 1-300 game.

Played 8 short (28hrs total) winning sessions and was +4.5k (18k roll) and had my first (and biggest ever) loosing session a few days ago which was -2.3k.

I feel like I could beat the game but I think I should wait until I get my roll up to around 18-20k before I go back to taking any shots @ 5/10.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

One reason I can understand for keeping bills around is because no one (the IRS) would be able to see it. Having your bank deposits on record in order to earn a nickel in interest over the year might not be worth it to some people. Not that I do this.

I also don't think investments are a great idea until you have a ton saved. If you might need the cash you put into the stock market in a few months, that's like guaranteeing you can make a profit in one six-hour session. The market, or other investments, are crapshoots unless you can afford to not need the money you're investing for years. Even if there's a stock you think is solid, what's 4-6 months going to do? Put in 15 buyins = $4500, Google year-to-date is up 0.65%, that's $29, minus probably $20 for the transaction fees to the brokerage house, leaving you with about $9. That's one specific example, not an EV for 6 months, but I don't think short term investments are worth it.

Safety deposit box.

Just seems impossible to never have had a 500bb downswing. I lost 420bb playing $1/2 yesterday in two hours just with a few coolers (QQ<AA, K9<A9 on 992 flop, flush over flush, trips against a boat in heads up pot, few three outer rivers, etc). Ended up with a 200bb win at end of day but that's a 620bb swing just in one 6 hour session. Doesn't matter how well you play, can't run like a champ forever. All of the best players I know seem to have a max of about 1000-1500bb downswing at some point depending on stakes/structure.