Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-01-2014, 04:46 PM   #7326
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,489
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Right so 7k is 3500 BBs

I have investments for life expenses if necessary.



Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums
Not for 2-5.
7000 is 1400bbs at 2-5.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2014, 05:21 PM   #7327
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Not for 2-5.
7000 is 1400bbs at 2-5.
I thought he was talking about playing 1/2 for a living?

So to take a shot i want 2000-4000 bbs at the stake?
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2014, 06:00 PM   #7328
MackCorl
grinder
 
MackCorl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: MI
Posts: 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
I thought he was talking about playing 1/2 for a living?

So to take a shot i want 2000-4000 bbs at the stake?
I've always been in big favor of aggressive shot taking (esp from 1-2 to 2-5) time spent at the lower stakes vs potential hourly at 2/5 is huge.

I'd say 20 bi's for 1/2 and 3 months living expenses at the least but if your still playing 1-2 with 30-40BIs you need to be shot taking at the next level. Note that shot taking isn't making it your main game until you lose and drop stakes, again it is table selecting and taking a SHOT and hitting some run good and never looking back.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums
MackCorl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2014, 07:10 PM   #7329
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by beta1607 View Post
How does one account for Bad Beat Jackpot in thier results? I won 750$ table share last night and tempted to add that to my amount cashed out last night since it kinda counters the BBJP drop on every hand the casino takes and table share won't wildly skew my results like winning $15k as the hands loser would.

Also would 5-5 be more or less profitable than 2-5 if both have the same buy-in?

Thanks

Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums
Add it to your income, for tax purposes and if you keep track of how much money you have to your name, things like that.

I wouldn't add it to your hourly. To me hourly is a measure of how well you're doing, the BBJ $ will just skew it.
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2014, 07:16 PM   #7330
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,585
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
You need way more $ if you are playing full time to shot take, and even to play 1/2 for a living.

Realistically you want 2,000 to 4,000 bb + 6 months income
I love when people say this lol. Do you think if he had 6 months expenses + another 8grand, he'd be playing 1/2 to earn a living?
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2014, 06:04 AM   #7331
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
LLSNL FF Champ '13
 
ibelieveyouoweme$80k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wentzylvania baby
Posts: 12,851
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So, LOL, I'm 6 weeks into this jaunt as a 'pro.'

Suffice it to say, it has gone south in a hurry. Down about $3K in the last 2.5 weeks. I hope it gets better before it gets much worse. Just kind of need to string together a few wins like I did right at the start of this downswing, which includes winning 5 of 6 sessions.

My profit since mid-April including some bonuses for hours, giveaways, is $821. That's almost exactly 1 BB per hour ($3.36/hr) ... FML.

I heard a quote from Limon on his podcast last week that said he believes probably 95 percent of existing pros 'ran hot' when they first started playing poker professionally.

Well, I haven't.

Hoping it turns around later this week. Life roll dwindling, but poker roll still OK.
ibelieveyouoweme$80k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2014, 09:08 AM   #7332
pure_aggression
Pooh-Bah
 
pure_aggression's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Pure Aggression on YouTube
Posts: 5,243
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I love when people say this lol. Do you think if he had 6 months expenses + another 8grand, he'd be playing 1/2 to earn a living?
Yeah haha, quite the paradox.
pure_aggression is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2014, 09:12 AM   #7333
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I understand that im not exactly ROBUSTO but am I that significantly under-rolled?
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 12:38 AM   #7334
squeek12
old hand
 
squeek12's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Breesus!
Posts: 1,751
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've read that a good winrate at 1/2 could be around $20/hr. At my casino, though, the maximum buy in is $300 or up to the biggest stack. I usually buy in for $300 and top up when necessary, but I'd say I spend at least 50% of my time at the tables with a stack of $400+ and there are usually at least 3-4 players with as much or more. Of course this varies, but I don't think it'd be out of line to estimate that that average stack is usually around $400.

Is my game playing bigger than the typical 1/2 game at other casinos and can a good player expect to make 50% more hourly if so?

I've made about $45/hr in my first 75 hours in the game and I'm just trying to determine if I'm running hot as the sun or just run of the mill hot. Keep in mind I play mainly Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings and my typical session is 7+ hours. Also, I'm pretty good about leaving bad tables and searching for better ones.

This is Harrah's NOLA btw.
squeek12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 12:48 AM   #7335
problemeliminator
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
problemeliminator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: China
Posts: 9,473
Youre running hot, but not insanely.
problemeliminator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 01:18 AM   #7336
chriswt
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: PA
Posts: 224
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Definitely sustainable especially since stack depths run like a 1/3+
chriswt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 01:22 AM   #7337
squeek12
old hand
 
squeek12's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Breesus!
Posts: 1,751
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by problemeliminator View Post
Youre running hot, but not insanely.

That's what I figured. I had one session out of 10 where I got a taste of what it's like to truly run bad. Every flush draw got there...

I'm an old online LHE full ring specialist. Made about $40k total 6-8 tabling 3/6 and 5/10 mainly. Played over 500K hands over a 3 year period so I'm fully aware of what variance looks like. 100k hand breakeven stretch was fun.

I thought poker as a side income was done for me, but I've kind of got my passion back and since I'm a teacher I play to try to put in some decent hours this summer. Just trying to get a feel for what's what in live NLHE.


So is what I described a bigger 1/2 game than usual. How much bigger?
squeek12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 01:25 AM   #7338
chriswt
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: PA
Posts: 224
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeek12 View Post

So is what I described a bigger 1/2 game than usual. How much bigger?
I have no experience personally with 1/2 games but most 1/3 games I've seen around the east coast run with 100-300 buyins, with a table consisting of around 2-3 short stacks (100 or less), 1-2 big stacks (800 or more), and the rest somewhere between 150-350, on average. So that being said your game runs like a very decently stacked 1/3 game and I think $45/hr is definitely sustainable.
chriswt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 01:50 AM   #7339
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeek12 View Post
100k hand breakeven stretch was fun.
Just for some perspective ...

At 30 hands/hr that's 3333 hours, or 1.6 *YEARS* playing 40 hours a week. For a part time player that only puts in 40 hours a month that's SEVEN years.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 11:18 AM   #7340
Koss
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Playing Recreationally
Posts: 6,001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Just for some perspective ...

At 30 hands/hr that's 3333 hours, or 1.6 *YEARS* playing 40 hours a week. For a part time player that only puts in 40 hours a month that's SEVEN years.
I really want poker to be a nice supplemental income for me, and so far it has been, but I play 25 hours a month. I try not to think about the fact that I could be a great player but get doomswitched and not win for a few years, but I know the reality of variance. These posts just reaffirm it. I do hope that donkalicious live 1/2 games are going to be much more profitable and less swingy than the reg infested online 3/6 and 5/10 limit games, but variance can still be a mfer.

If people take one thing away from this post it should be to focus on making the correct decisions, not results. If I ever write a nl holdem book I want to start off with a chapter talking about swings and variance. That should be the first thing people understand before they take up the game and then ***** when the call any two cards guy cashes out for 2 grand and they've dropped 2 buyins, not like that happened to me last night or anyrhing
Koss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-04-2014, 02:35 PM   #7341
squeek12
old hand
 
squeek12's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Breesus!
Posts: 1,751
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Just for some perspective ...

At 30 hands/hr that's 3333 hours, or 1.6 *YEARS* playing 40 hours a week. For a part time player that only puts in 40 hours a month that's SEVEN years.
Correct, but people not very familiar with LHE need to realize that my edge over that 1/2 million hand sample was a little under 1 BB/100. That would put me squarely in the good but not great player category for the limits I played.

1BB/100 would translate to $4/100 (BB is twice the big blind) hands at 1/2 NL which would be roughly $1.25/hr. It's not hard to imagine someone who's true edge is that tiny running breakeven or worse for a really, really long time at live poker.

So I guess if my true edge at 1/2 is $20/hr that would be the rough equivalent of 15BB/100 in limit poker. Those kind of winrates don't exist in limit poker but if they did I can't imagine that type of player breaking even for anywhere close to 100k hands.
squeek12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2014, 12:22 AM   #7342
Jake Stanton
grinder
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 437
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeek12 View Post
So I guess if my true edge at 1/2 is $20/hr...
if you're only playing the weekends you may very well run better or so i am told... it hasn't shown up in my small sample though. i actually have better winrate mon-wed than the rest of the week. i would expect those numbers to change when i get a bigger sample, idk we shall see.
Jake Stanton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 07:18 AM   #7343
day'n'night
old hand
 
day'n'night's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Alaska
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

so I am not a live grind but I will soon become one and I was thnking of a few things. Apparently when you total the amount of tips you give it comes down to approx 15% of total winnings. Say you play 200h per month, 10 months per year thats 2000 hours. Say you got a 30$/h winrate thats 60k a year, with $9k per year going in tips. Thats $900 dollar a month for a heavy grinder. These numbers might be a bit inflated but you get the idea. I was wondering if I should consider this to be standard and just tip the average 1$ per small pot and 2$-3$ per big pot, or if that in the long run that simply costs too much money.
day'n'night is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 08:01 AM   #7344
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
so I am not a live grind but I will soon become one and I was thnking of a few things. Apparently when you total the amount of tips you give it comes down to approx 15% of total winnings. Say you play 200h per month, 10 months per year thats 2000 hours. Say you got a 30$/h winrate thats 60k a year, with $9k per year going in tips. Thats $900 dollar a month for a heavy grinder. These numbers might be a bit inflated but you get the idea. I was wondering if I should consider this to be standard and just tip the average 1$ per small pot and 2$-3$ per big pot, or if that in the long run that simply costs too much money.
Please don't ask about the right amount of tipping here.

For a few reasons:
1) There is an entire thread dedicated to tipping in the Brick & Mortar forum.
2) People have strong opinions that I would rather not bog this thread down with.
3) There are a number of variables including game (1/2 vs 2/5) that make it very different.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:03 PM   #7345
day'n'night
old hand
 
day'n'night's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Alaska
Posts: 1,517
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

fair enough, my bad, thought tipping would be correlated with winrates/bankrolls and wasnt aware of the tipping thread
day'n'night is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:12 PM   #7346
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
fair enough, my bad, thought tipping would be correlated with winrates/bankrolls and wasnt aware of the tipping thread
Sorry, I could have given you a better answer last night.

Long story short, tipping is considered customary (and very strongly encouraged). But not required.

It is true that if you are tipping per pot, you will give up a % of your overall win rate. But at the same time, the dealers there are likely helping to facilitate you ability to make money in other ways.

They keep the integrity of the game, speed up the dealing process (as compated to a likely slower home game dealer) keep track of action, and other things that can be beneficial.

If you are winning $30/hour at 1/2 (or 2/5) that means that your expectancy per hand is ~$1 per hand. So, if you are seeing 3 - 4 extra hands per hour with a good dealer, then the $4 that you tipped them from won pots is pretty much a wash. Obviously the higher that you win rate is, the more that the dealer is helping you out.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:13 PM   #7347
de4df1sh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
de4df1sh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: mobtown
Posts: 6,893
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys, I've been sitting around with 35+ BI in my safe at home to grind 1/2 fulltime and I was thinking of keeping some of this cash in the stock market or other investments.

To my other full time grinders; Do you guys keep that much cash sitting around?

I feel like I could be putting a % of my bankroll to work for me instead of sitting around in my safe instead of being lazy.
de4df1sh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:23 PM   #7348
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Hey guys, I've been sitting around with 35+ BI in my safe at home to grind 1/2 fulltime and I was thinking of keeping some of this cash in the stock market or other investments.

To my other full time grinders; Do you guys keep that much cash sitting around?

I feel like I could be putting a % of my bankroll to work for me instead of sitting around in my safe instead of being lazy.
35 BI? $7,000?

No way I'd keep that much at the house just for playing 1/2. I don't generally keep more than I'm ok losing in a weekend (pretty much between possible trips to the bank) on hand.
I would certainly look to invest some of that or put it into a low yield bank account at least. There's likely no reason to ever have more than 10 buy ins on hand at any point and even that is likely pretty high.

Now I'm saying that you shouldn't have the money available in case of a prolonged down swing, but keeping it in cash in your house is just a bad idea.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:33 PM   #7349
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,038
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
So, LOL, I'm 6 weeks into this jaunt as a 'pro.'

Suffice it to say, it has gone south in a hurry. Down about $3K in the last 2.5 weeks. I hope it gets better before it gets much worse. Just kind of need to string together a few wins like I did right at the start of this downswing, which includes winning 5 of 6 sessions.

My profit since mid-April including some bonuses for hours, giveaways, is $821. That's almost exactly 1 BB per hour ($3.36/hr) ... FML.

I heard a quote from Limon on his podcast last week that said he believes probably 95 percent of existing pros 'ran hot' when they first started playing poker professionally.

Well, I haven't.

Hoping it turns around later this week. Life roll dwindling, but poker roll still OK.
bro I read this and you similar post in chat. I think there are some major leaks in your game if you are losing this much. Are you posting hands? Sorry I don't know about your PGC but I will check it later.

My guess you are getting into some bad habits and losing more in spots you shouldn't/getting less value in others.

GL....take a break, post some hands, really think about and be honest with where your holes are.
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2014, 05:54 PM   #7350
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,373
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
bro I read this and you similar post in chat. I think there are some major leaks in your game if you are losing this much. Are you posting hands? Sorry I don't know about your PGC but I will check it later.

My guess you are getting into some bad habits and losing more in spots you shouldn't/getting less value in others.

GL....take a break, post some hands, really think about and be honest with where your holes are.
+1 (and I don't believe Chippy has updated his PGC thread since turning pro)

Losing $4K+ at 1/3NL- (I'm assuming no 2/5 mixed in there?) seems more than run bad to me (although that may be cuz I'm a fish-on-a-heater-who-has-never-experienced-a-500bb-downswing).

GcluelessNLnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive