Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
In terms of actual mathmatics 1,500 to 2,000 hours would provide a meaningful sample
In terns of realizing if you can beat droolers in live poker, you should have a good feel at 500 hours imo. Feel and win rate are two different things here. Your wr is meaningless at 500 hours.
Trying to figure out the mathematics of a winrate in poker is damn near impossible because the variables are always changing. What we're actually looking for are common sense approximations and even then, what does 500 hours really tell you?
Do you know how I know I'm a winner in my games? It's not based on hours played, profits, standard deviations, or any formulas. It's because players say things like "I always move allin with aces so they don't get cracked" or "I know you got a full house, but I got to see it" followed by me showing them a full house and taking most of their stack and online I've had two different donks CALL and lose their 100bb stack allin on a double paired board because they couldn't fold a flush. You get the idea ...
Truth be told, with the right players, there's probably a live 1/2 game somewhere at some point in time that's so tough, 99% of the players here couldn't beat it on average. On the other side of the coin, there's probably a 10/20 game somewhere at some point that's so easy that 99% of the people here can beat it. Poker is about beating players or in some cases just A player.
Again, unless you play in live or online games where the variables don't change much, you're just making a best guess outside of a vacuum.
The key to winning imo is #1 having a bankroll and #2 game selecting. You may be rolled for 2/5 and a winner in that game, but the best game may be a 1/3 game. 5/10 may be your standard/winning game and TWICE you've tried to take a shot at 10/20 and failed, but if you have the bankroll and the RIGHT, good, juicy game opens up, you should take a seat imo.
Bankroll is just so important so you can #1 handle the swings and #2 not be affected by moving up or down. If you have $50k, there's no 2/5 game that should ever intimidate you since you have 100 buy-ins. Now, if you only have $10k ... well, it better be a very juicy game and even if it is, variance in the short term can sometimes take out a player making all the right moves.