A+, would read again in rap lyric format.

Day in day out imma fill my fat rack
with fish 'n' chips tryin'a take my jacked stack
**** top pair, yo draw ain't worth a shat jack
reload n' cry, try to win it all back

...all black chips cuz i'm finna win that cake, STAT
i'm a gambler; the racetrack is my rakeback
so face facts, there ain't no way i'm not gonna make sacks
so you can take that; i'll get it paid back ASAP

Listen to Bart Hanson's podcasts, he'll beat value betting into your brain

Which casts? Are they the ones here:

http://www.deucescracked.com/podcasts

...that you have to be a member to get?

I got some podcasts off of itunes...I wanted to put them on my iPod nano, but can't figure out how to sync podcasts to the pod. all the mp3s sync right up but the podcasts just keep hanging out there. in itunes. guess I could just listen to them at home...

you have sample size problems

Wow, so you're at ~19bb/hr over 638 hours at the lower games? Impressive, imo.

But as 11t says, your sample size at the higher games is almost meaningless.

http://www.seatopenpoker.net/

Just pay the $23.99 subscription fee and you get all of his newer podcasts and all crushlivepoker videos.....Well worth the price, you would have made it back and then some if you value bet those queens! lol

I took a class at Ohio State about all the workings of Excel back when I was an Accounting major. It's really easy to do if you know how to do it.

First, label a column as "dates". This is where you'll put your dates of the session. Label the next column as "hours". This is how long the session was. The next column/s are up to preference. I keep one column because I only use up to two buy-ins per session if I lose. Label this column "profit".

For the profit column, click inside the c2 cell (as this should be the first cell under the profit column). There should be a small square on the bottom right hand corner of that cell. Click it and drag it all the way down the column (I'd go about 80 or so columns). Go up to the top bar and click the $ button. This will make all cells in that column appear in a dollar amount. I personally add other little touches like a red cell for a negative session and green cell for profit session, but that's a little more complicated for a new excel user.

In the "E" column, label three cells in the same column "Hours", "Net Profit", and "$/hour". Start this at E1 and go to E3. In the cell to the right of "hours", F1, click inside of it and type the following in.

=SUM(B2:B50)

This will automatically count the total amount of hours you have played whenever you put an amount in the hours column (Up to the B50 cell). For the "Net Profit", click in the cell to the right of it, F2. First, go up and click the $ button for this cell. Next, click inside of the cell and type the following in.

=SUM(C2:C50)

This will automatically calculate your total profit whenever you put your session win/loss amounts in. The last cell will calculate your winrate in terms of $/hour. For this, click in the cell to the right of "$/hour" (F3) and push the $ button at the top. Click inside of the cell again and type in the following.

=F2/F1

And this will automatically calculate your winrate per hour. Hope this helps

as an engineer I have no idea how people don't know how to use excel

think you're right on many counts. first up, I lost 240bb with quads during a 5/5 session which clearly hurts my win rate.

I have already worked out I play differently at 5/5. I am very conscious of being 'worked out' and exploited by some of the good reg/pros at the level and as a result, I think I deviate from my normal game too much, splash around and make silly bluffs as well as float too much post flop because I think I'm being bluffed.

I think my winning style at lower levels is to be patient and tight, see cheap flops in position where possible, bet hard for value, fold well and rarely bluff. I just need to be more consistent with this game plan and then make smaller tweaks in response to table dynamics rather than try to badly retool my game.

i doubt theres a large difference in the player pool. its a common mistake to make (says the guy who's been smoked for bout $350 at 20NL in the last week).

as noted above, I do think my play is worse at higher levels and I need to re-tool my mental preparation for that game before I sit down at 5/5 again.

re my win rate, it seems to me that it is higher than people I would think from these forums are way better than me. I don't have delusions of grandeur, although I hope I get good value from my hands most of the time. More so, I think the reason for this could be that the games in Australia play bigger pre flop in terms of limpers and bet sizing and this increases win rate.

eg yesterday at 3/3, the standard raise was $15-18, so 5-6bb and I'm certain this increases my win rate.

I had a standard hand yesterday. 3 limpers to me in c/o with AQ. I raise to 24, two callers.
Flop $81 Qh 8d 4s.

Checked to me, I bet $50, one caller. (eff stacks 400)

Turn $181. 9c he checks, I check.

River ($181) 7d, he checks I bet $120, he tank calls with 1010.

Scoop pot of $421. Quite a standard played pot I'd think but, I won 74bb with TPTK. If standard raise had been 4 or 5 bb, I'd have only won 45-50.

turn needs to bet there so you can win 120bb with tptk.

villain folds in that case

Worthless. F Ohio.

really???????

I mean, sure if we know that villain has TT exactly it's a great check but c'mon man. Give KQ/QJ a chance to spite call.

We MIGHT get 2 streets of value if we bet flop and turn, but seems incredibly unlikely to get someone to stack off with kj or worse.

you'll never have a chance to stack anyone if you don't bet turn.

That's true, and perhaps that offsets the times villain folds on the turn.

yeah, I understand the POV and in game and afterwards, I thought about it. I'm not 100% I'm right at all but also don't think my play was 100% wrong.

Villain was an above average player at that level, I've played with him on 5/5 too and he isn't a spew monkey by any standards.

My thought basically was that given we were heads up, he will think I'm c betting 100% of my range, so by checking turn I think I get more value on river, either by him leading into me or as it turned out, my river bet range having more bluffs in it and him hero calling me.

We were pretty deep and I would have hated being check raised all in on turn - when he limp called, I think he has more pocket pairs than queens in his range so I was a little wary of a set.

For that reason, if he leads into me on river my plan was only to call vs a re-raise.

+1

a late response, but what Kelly is designed to maximize is expected utility, given a logarithmic utility of money function. That is sometimes expressed as maximizing the "expected growth rate" which is a bit unintuitive.

Here's how to envision what logarithmic utility of money means.

Linear money is how we normally think about poker decisions. You are getting 2:1 money odds and we have 40% equity, therefore, good decision. And we moderate our risk by making sure we only ever put a fairly small fraction of our bankroll on the table.

Linear money utility decisions are how you would maximize your bankroll, period. But a consequence of linear utility is that you would be indifferent to flipping a coin for your entire bankroll with no overlay, and want to flip for your entire bankroll with any overlay whatsoever. So for example. Your entire net worth is 100k. I offer to flip a coin. You can be assured that the coin is absolutely and perfectly fair. If you win, I give you $100,001, if I win, you give me $100,000.

Linear utility says this is a good bet, you earn $1 on average.

Linear utility is obviously way, way, way out there into degen land on the gambool scale.

Logarithmic utility says that you are indifferent to bets where winning will in crease your bankroll by a factor of x, and losing will leave you with bankroll * 1/x. So you have a 100k bankroll, and I offer a flip for your whole bankroll where if you win, you get 100k, and if you lose, you pay me 50k. So you double your roll on a win, and halve it on a loss.

Or alternately, you win $10k, or lose $9091. You should be indifferent. Or alternately, you win $900k, or lose $90k. You should be indifferent.

If this sounds too gambooly for you, then kelly is too aggressive. If it sounds pretty close to accurate, then you are a fairly typical aggressive advantage gambler, which is why Kelly is popular.

When I say Kelly specifies the optimal amount to bet, what I mean is that betting the kelly% maximizes the expected logarithm of your total bankroll.

Betting more than this amount will increase your linear EV, but slightly decrease your log EV versus betting the kelly amount. But betting a bit more than the kelly amount is better than not betting at all.

That's why I mean it can be advantageous to flip for more than kelly would suggest -- if you don't have the optino to bet the kelly amount, but you can bet something like 1.5x the kelly amount, then it's probably still a good bet.

utility adjusted EV is my own formulation that I use to determine whether a bet is good/bad. It's worth playing with the formula I gave in the last post, until you understand what's going on.

Guys! I did it!

So I'm in for 150ish at 1/2. I pick up AsQd in mid position, make it 8, get three callers. Flop Qc8s2s. Pot 35. Checks around to me, I bet 17 (an error, I know). One fold, V1 who had limped (no previous experience and I just sat down) says: "Let's just see where you're at" and makes it 30 more. I'm thinking, this is just like the last time, where I ran AQ into bottom set. Only this isn't a rainbow board, and this guy only has 60 behind. I still think for quite a while about it, it takes a while for the math and Ed Miller's SPR advice (3-5 is ideal for tptk, and SPR of this guy's stack was 3 on the flop) to battle with my MUBSy fear of running into a set again. He has gone on to talk to people, but he doesn't give a speech. I shove all in, he instacalls, I say ****. turn 7, river K, he says "good play, you got it". I say "you missed the flush?" He had 5s6s. turn actually gave him oesd as well as the flush draw. I flip my AQ, he says "gutsy play".

Few hands later, I have 4c5c in the cutoff with a dead button (so basically on the button), and I overlimp after a few limpers. BB makes it 7, one caller, I call because I have position and am thinking about trying out a bluff if the situation is right (I don't put him on a really strong hand). Pot 22. Flop comes 8dTcJc, I'm deciding whether to semibluff when BB makes it 10. other guy folds, I decide to just call. Turn Kc. He bets 10 again, and I've seen him bet overly small on a draw or when he has a weak hand. I don't want to let him get a free club so I make it 40. He calls, river 9h, he goes all in for 43 more, and my MUBS saying he has a higher flush isn't even all that loud, it's just kind of in the background, saying, "well, he COULD..." I call, he flips over a queen, had JQ. I guess he put me on the king on the turn and was drawing to hit the straight or trips.

Anyway, woot! I'm fighting my nitty MUBS with the power of math and position. (Any and all criticisms welcome, I know I should've raised more with my flush, in retrospect)

[edit] In before

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs

Hi all, cross-posting this from my PG&C thread because it seems like here's where I'm most likely to find people who know what they're talking about. Would be good to know if people could put a rough ballpark on my % chance of busting with a 5BI shot.

As background, I've been grinding a roll through the micros, started at 2NL with a $60 bankroll, and currently at 25NL with a bankroll of ~$850. My ultimate aim is to build a roll to play live games in London. I have a full-time job, and my poker roll and my life roll are totally disconnected.

---

I've been rethinking my BRM again, and I'm beginning to concoct a new plan. When I get to $1250, instead of moving up to NL50, I'm going to withdraw £500 ($750), and stay at NL25 with my $500 bankroll remaining.

Why? Well, I really want to start taking a shot at the 1/1 live games in London. Building up a live roll was my driving force behind starting playing online, ever since I turned €200 into €950 at the Gran Casino in Barcelona (the night I truly caught the poker bug). While i know 5BIs is a risky shot to take, I figure that I'm probably 20-25% at worst to busto (basing this partly on the fact that in this outstanding thread, gobbledygeek's only had two -450bb downswings over 1000 hours of live 1/3).

My wife's got an away job again at the end of May, I'd love to have the shot ready to fire by then so I could have a full week of live play while she's away. I could see $1250 being achievable in the next couple of months, if things go well.

Does this sound like madness? I mean, sure, I'll have to hope variance treats me kindly, but if it doesn't work then I've still got my $500 online, and I don't think it'd take me TOO much longer to turn that $500 into $1250 at 25NL to take another 5BI shot than it would to turn the $1250 into $2000 playing 50NL.

My only worry is my mental game - with a 5BI bankroll a standard 2BI blip represents 40% of my bankroll, and not playing scared money with the remainder might be a challenge. But then I think my mental game is pretty strong, and given that it's not my full bankroll, just a shot, I should be OK.