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Old 03-12-2013, 11:31 PM   #4426
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Suggestions for not tilting/getting off your game at the table.

Do not live in the past. This was one of my biggest leaks early on. I would make a bad bet/raise/call and be thinking about it the entire night. I wouldn't tilt per se, but my mind was on that hand and that hand only. This affects your play.

My solution was to immediately note the hand (in my phone so most people just think I'm texting). And then forget about it and move on. I mean certainly make a mental note on villains if pertinent, but do not focus on your mistake. Then once you get home you can go over the hand, see that this particular situation was clearly a bet/fold on the river, why did I check call? Then you've learned from it, in a calmer state, and can use it. Focusing on mistakes while playing only compounds mistakes.

As for suckouts, see above post. We don't mind suckouts. People calling bad is the entire reason we are able to profitably play poker. Phil Helmuth is famous for always saying "if this game was 100% skill, I'd win every tournament" What he doesn't realize is, if this game was 100% skill, there would be no tournaments. Or at least a lot less juice anyway.
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Old 03-12-2013, 11:41 PM   #4427
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Yeah getting my money in good and getting sucked out on doesn't phase me, not even a flinch. It's when I get it in as a slight dog and wonder if I'm just hitting the top of his range or made a mistake, that causes my game to unravel.

Anyway, don't want to wander off topic as I know this is a winrate/BR thread.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:19 AM   #4428
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Tonight I crossed the $10K mark in career 1/2 winnings. No big deal, but it feels nice. I did it in 501 hours.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:25 AM   #4429
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's 1/2 max $300 buy in and 1/2 max $200 buy in where I live.

You think I should play the max $300 buy in more often?

What do you think difference in win rate could be between the two games?
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:26 AM   #4430
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In my experience they play exactly the same but one is a little bigger so add some to the win rate with the bigger game. Are they in the same establishment? That may change things some.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:28 AM   #4431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
In my experience they play exactly the same but one is a little bigger so add some to the win rate with the bigger game. Are they in the same establishment? That may change things some.
Two different casinos.

But, both games have a couple short stacks at each table.

Play is the same at both places.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:30 AM   #4432
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THen the 1/3 will provide the bigger win rate. Whichever game plays the deepest.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:34 AM   #4433
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
THen the 1/3 will provide the bigger win rate. Whichever game plays the deepest.
One place usually has 2-3 1/2 $300 max going.

Other place usually has 6-7 1/2 $200 max going.

So, I usually choose other place and table select/bum hunt.

Ima start playing more at the $300 max.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:26 AM   #4434
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I've got a quick bankroll-related question for all the math guys.

Assuming 2/5 NL live pro with $30/hour win-rate and 10k poker bankroll above and beyond 6 months of expenses saved...

If a 2/5 NL reg offers you a 5% overlay on a $1000 coin flip (he pays you $1050 if you win and you only pay him $1000 if you lose), should you take the bet?

Is the small amount of +EV worth the potential damage that it could do to your bankroll?

If it isn't worth it at 10k bankroll, is it worth the risk at 15k bankroll or even 20k bankroll?
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:29 AM   #4435
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd do it and my life roll is less than 10k.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:31 AM   #4436
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Well, I have snap-accepted these kinds of prop bets in the past. I am just wondering if they are -EV to a winning poker pro who increases his risk of ruin significantly. There has got to be some -EV for going busto and taking yourself out of action when you are a profitable poker pro who makes $30/hour.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:38 AM   #4437
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many coin flips? I don't think I can suck it up losing just one time.

If you are a good pro I see no problem doing it for fun. Just don't be hurt if you lose 2k
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Old 03-13-2013, 11:39 AM   #4438
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
I've got a quick bankroll-related question for all the math guys.

Assuming 2/5 NL live pro with $30/hour win-rate and 10k poker bankroll above and beyond 6 months of expenses saved...

If a 2/5 NL reg offers you a 5% overlay on a $1000 coin flip (he pays you $1050 if you win and you only pay him $1000 if you lose), should you take the bet?

Is the small amount of +EV worth the potential damage that it could do to your bankroll?

If it isn't worth it at 10k bankroll, is it worth the risk at 15k bankroll or even 20k bankroll?
Without crunching numbers the Kelly Criterion says that the largest "coin flip" (55/45 ~ 60/40) you should take for your bankroll is 5% or 500 dollars of a 10k roll. You probably want a ~30k roll to safely do that since the overlay means its 51.2/48.8. This is the basic premise of the 20 BI rule (which still has a significant ROR).

Living expenses are not part of your poker bankroll and are part of your "life roll" which keep the two separate. If you bust your bankroll you probably aren't too keen on dipping into your rent money and will likely look for a stake instead.
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Old 03-13-2013, 11:41 AM   #4439
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, I usually like to encourage regs to coin flip with me at the table because I feel that they are likely to tilt more from losing flips than I am.

I still would like a math guy to give me a real answer to my hypothetical question though.
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Old 03-13-2013, 11:44 AM   #4440
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Basically taking small edges for a significant percentage of your betting capacity is much more -EV than not taking the bet.

Think of it like this: the immediate EV of the bet for you is +EV as you stand to net some $ value. However, the net present value of option A (not taking the bet which is immediately -EV compared to taking the bet) is actually less -EV than the net present value of option B (taking the bet) because of increased risk of ruin.

the math is in the wiki, you got a calculator. do it up.
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Old 03-13-2013, 11:51 AM   #4441
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

anway I was curious f = (bp-q)/b, b = odds, p = propability winning, q = losing, f = amount of br to bet

((1.05*.5)-.5)/1.05 = .024 so if you are a betting 1k, you want a 41,666$ bankroll to maximize your bankroll growth in the long run.
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Old 03-13-2013, 11:53 AM   #4442
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Also people often say we should push all edges but if you do the math it takes so many iterations to actualize a very small edge in poker it is basically just a variance trap that you won't ever realize in your life time.
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Old 03-13-2013, 01:58 PM   #4443
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11t,

Thanks for the analysis. Seems very accurate.

I guess that I have been overly degenerate in these prop bets then because I have been giving even money coin flip bets to fish in order to keep them entertained. Basically, I adhere to the DGAF school of giving gamble action to fish to keep the game atmosphere light and gambly. My past experience also indicates that certain fish and regs will start tilting if they get stuck on coin flips, so there is often +EV metagame benefits for me to do coin flip prop bets because I don't tilt when I get stuck.

FWIW, I have done coin flip prop bets for significantly more than than 1k in the past.

Recently, however, certain regs have been offering me odds on my prop bets, so I was curious about the bankroll implications.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:05 PM   #4444
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11t,

I guess your analysis also applies to high-variance slightly +EV poker spots for winning live pros who aren't over-rolled for their games.

Most 2/5 live pros probably operate on 15k bankrolls or less (minus 6 months of saved expenses). Therefore, they can't really afford to be taking too many slightly +EV spots in 1k+ pots, I guess.

Interesting concept to consider.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:43 PM   #4445
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ha really makes you think about the profitability of playing PLO live amirite?

Run it 2x please.

and like all of these analysis are measured against "optimal" decisions, although iirc Kelly would argue that it is much more profitable to take the bet for under the criterion value than over where if you imagine a bet right at f* and the bet under the value of (f* - X) and a bet over the value (f* + X) where like Risk/Reward of (f* - X) = Y you would get Risk/Reward of (f* + X) = Y*(greater risk).

Basically I am saying that risk/reward is much higher over f* than under f* where the curve is very flat up to f* and f* is likely an inflection point and it rises exponentially (might be a different gradient) after that

Also interesting is how this affects "shot taking" if you actually have to live off your roll.

Last edited by 11t; 03-13-2013 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 03-13-2013, 02:43 PM   #4446
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i am totally averse to showdown/coin flips. I do however push any perceived edge in game. Some kind of mental switch for me I guess. Helps my image as well. In game. I don't mess around on the side.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:04 PM   #4447
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I love doing Roll'ems (everyone puts some amount of money in pre without looking at their cards and then no more action) but I dislike non poker betting at the poker table. I also like board props and the 72 game.
Floor often stops us when we try to get these going tho.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:05 PM   #4448
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I do play the color flop game for small amounts if the action is dying or im losing focus. I run so bad in it though.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:13 PM   #4449
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I do play the color flop game for small amounts if the action is dying or im losing focus. I run so bad in it though.
A fun game I have played a few times with multiple people is you all pick a card. If one of that card comes out everyone has to give you $5, two of that card is $10 a person. Three is $25 and Four is $50.
Cool thing is if quads are on board and there is 5 guys in, you could win $200.
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Old 03-13-2013, 03:17 PM   #4450
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by fun101 View Post
I love doing Roll'ems (everyone puts some amount of money in pre without looking at their cards and then no more action) but I dislike non poker betting at the poker table. I also like board props and the 72 game.
Floor often stops us when we try to get these going tho.
We started a bounty game at Red Rock where you get $5 for everyone you felt from anyone that's participating, and you pay everyone else in the game $5 when you lose an all-in (don't need to get felted on the losing side). Last time one of the dealers told the floor and they told us not to do it anymore since we were passing chips around the table. Fun game though...great when you win, really sucks when you lose a few of them.
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