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Old 12-17-2012, 01:23 PM   #3151
RobFarha
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This is not an online graph though. There are plenty of sessions I'm stuck 2kish and fight back to even.

It doesn't update with every hand like an online graph would, only at the en of every session.

Just something to consider
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Old 12-17-2012, 01:29 PM   #3152
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

that is just a sampling rate error and is a wash, it is like saying that updating every hand isn't actually accurate since we should be sampling at every street

I mean obviously win rates are much higher live but even if you are the best player evar you'll at the very least break even when "running bad".
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Old 12-17-2012, 01:33 PM   #3153
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I mean obviously if we sample like so little we don't get any useful data then all we'd see is a steady straight line upwards, but (especially if you are playing short sessions when behind and longer sessions when ahead) you should have a higher % of losing sessions than winning sessions. I mean in live NLHE little things like running slightly above expectation of hitting FD's can have huge implications on your winrate or just winning like 60/40 of your big flips instead of running 50/50 and these things are nearly impossible to measure since we don't keep statistics.
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Old 12-17-2012, 01:50 PM   #3154
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would say that if you haven't had an 8xBI peak to peak (like session beginning to session beginning) downswing you have been running pretty good.

This isn't to besmirch skill or w/e just the nature of the beast.
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:26 PM   #3155
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I would say that if you haven't had an 8xBI peak to peak (like session beginning to session beginning) downswing you have been running pretty good.

This isn't to besmirch skill or w/e just the nature of the beast.
I've played about 1800 hours live and that's yet to happen.
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:28 PM   #3156
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

at 2/5 or 1/2 and 1/3?
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:30 PM   #3157
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Actually to be exact its 1924 hours, mostly 1/2 very little 2/5. My games play medium sized
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:33 PM   #3158
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't know anyone that's lost 8 buy-ins in one session. Seems like that would be awfully hard to do.
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:34 PM   #3159
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

it is hard to judge my DS because the buyin is 75% of the big stack but I'm in a 6k DS and breaking even over 350 hours. of course I run good at 1/3
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:35 PM   #3160
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't know anyone that's lost 8 buy-ins in one session. Seems like that would be awfully hard to do.
no I mean peak to peak as in like over several sessions
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:39 PM   #3161
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no I mean peak to peak as in like over several sessions
Sounds pretty standard then....my biggest downswing was 10BI ($300 @ $1/2 x 10) over one month.
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:41 PM   #3162
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yeah and i mean obviously in a more aggro game your std dev will go up and your swings will increase
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:52 PM   #3163
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I find it impossible to go on an 800bb downswing in a 100bb cap game in live poker.

You would have to be mega-tilting if your winrate is around 10-15bb/hr
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:58 PM   #3164
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

can't run the poker variance calculator but you are like 100% for sure going to take a swing like that, and the reality is people over estimate their winrate/skill edge and the better games you are in the bigger swings you will take. Like if you are in a 2/5/10 game your winrate will go up but your swings will increase dramatically since you won't play the most profitable street, the river, very often.

like a week ago I lost 1k without ever seeing a turn and playing quite well, hard to win when you 3bet AK, get 2 callers and the flop comes Q98 2 suit.

SABR told me that his biggest swing was 12xBI or 6k at 2/5 100xbb.
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:03 PM   #3165
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I find it impossible to go on an 800bb downswing in a 100bb cap game in live poker.

You would have to be mega-tilting if your winrate is around 10-15bb/hr
there is a reason why we have a bankroll my man. It is to sustain when a firestorm of crazy events happen that is completely beyond our control. I like you dont tilt in the monkey sense. I may play sub optimally but w/e. This past summer I had some of the most insane things happen in a 10 day span. People were desperately trying to give me their $ but for some reason got their miracles. 1100bb down swing (no biggie 5.5k)

point is downswongs are out there
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:09 PM   #3166
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

you buyin for 1k?
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:13 PM   #3167
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

generally 500
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:24 PM   #3168
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I got KK cracked by TPNK AI OTF and middle set vs top set AI OTF in a straddled 3bet pot and lost like 2.5k in one session.

It can be sick man.
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:52 PM   #3169
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I hope I don't go on a 10 BI downswing, as that is all I keep in my BR. But I am not a professional and would be able to reload from my day job (eventually).
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:00 PM   #3170
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I hope I don't go on a 10 BI downswing, as that is all I keep in my BR. But I am not a professional and would be able to reload from my day job (eventually).
Good point, but that reminds me of another reason I practice bankroll management that I don't hear many people talk about. One of the biggest enjoyments I get from poker is simply "being a winner". When you practice bankroll management, you're much more likely to be a winner than if you splash money around at any stakes you can afford or with money you happen to have.

It's comforting to know that it's almost impossible to go broke if you follow bankroll management. You may have to drop to 1 cent, 2 cent blinds, but if you follow it, most people can win at some level.
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:19 PM   #3171
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I find it impossible to go on an 800bb downswing in a 100bb cap game in live poker.

You would have to be mega-tilting if your winrate is around 10-15bb/hr
This is what everyone says who has yet to experience negative variance.

I hate to pile on, but your posting a graph with a $60-something win rate followed by "I run pretty bad" was pretty ridiculous.

You could well be a $60 an hour winner at 2/5, I'm not saying you're not. But if you are, that means that you've played a small sample at or near your true win rate, which, by definition, means you haven't run bad over that sample.

If you're not tracking your variance, then you really have no idea how you're running. It's really hard to tell in live poker for several reasons. One is the slow motion aspect of it--at the end of a year of full time play, you have maybe 60k hands, which is the lower bound of what I consider likely a reliable sample when I do online database reviews. But it's hard to imagine that you ran hot or cold or whatever for a whole year, so it's natural for a year's results to feel reliable to you.

But in my experience, a 60k hand sample is usually influenced by some sort of variance--not necessarily so much as to be useless, but enough so that it I have to go through it carefully adjusting for variance to get an approximation of the player's true win rate for the sample. Samples below 40k are useless often enough that I won't even waste someone's time trying to analyze them--I've set my minimum at 50k hands because of that.

As for -8 buy in downswings being impossible for solid winners, well, that's just wrong. In a big enough sample, it's guaranteed to happen. The fact that you haven't had one just means you haven't played a big enough sample, or that you're running good.
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Old 12-17-2012, 05:01 PM   #3172
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This is not an online graph though. There are plenty of sessions I'm stuck 2kish and fight back to even.

It doesn't update with every hand like an online graph would, only at the en of every session.

Just something to consider
If you go and check out robs (robfarha) thread in poker goals and challenges i think you will find he's confirmed crushing live 2-5 ... Plus apparently hes internet famous now hope to (not) meet you at the 2/5 foxwoods tables unless it for lunch

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Old 12-17-2012, 05:15 PM   #3173
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This is what everyone says who has yet to experience negative variance.

I hate to pile on, but your posting a graph with a $60-something win rate followed by "I run pretty bad" was pretty ridiculous.

You could well be a $60 an hour winner at 2/5, I'm not saying you're not. But if you are, that means that you've played a small sample at or near your true win rate, which, by definition, means you haven't run bad over that sample.

If you're not tracking your variance, then you really have no idea how you're running. It's really hard to tell in live poker for several reasons. One is the slow motion aspect of it--at the end of a year of full time play, you have maybe 60k hands, which is the lower bound of what I consider likely a reliable sample when I do online database reviews. But it's hard to imagine that you ran hot or cold or whatever for a whole year, so it's natural for a year's results to feel reliable to you.

But in my experience, a 60k hand sample is usually influenced by some sort of variance--not necessarily so much as to be useless, but enough so that it I have to go through it carefully adjusting for variance to get an approximation of the player's true win rate for the sample. Samples below 40k are useless often enough that I won't even waste someone's time trying to analyze them--I've set my minimum at 50k hands because of that.

As for -8 buy in downswings being impossible for solid winners, well, that's just wrong. In a big enough sample, it's guaranteed to happen. The fact that you haven't had one just means you haven't played a big enough sample, or that you're running good.
Comparing online to live poker is fundamentally flawed, with the exception that they are both played with cards they are completely different.

Me saying "I run pretty bad" was a joke. I posting shortly after that I am likely on the positive side of variance, if I'm on the negative it is not by much.

I also think you, like many other people do, are using the term "downswing" incorrectly.

Saying I went on a x buyin downswing should mean that you lost x amount of buyins in 100% of situations that are completely out of your control, or that you had the best hand/an unavoidable cooler in each spot. It should also reference that the size of your bets is close to optimal in situations where you need to be getting value from the best hand.

Losing 2 buyins set over set, then tilt shoving 2 draws in terrible spots is not a 4 buy-in downswing. It's a 2 buyin downswing with you donking off 2 buyins as a result of previous negative variance.

I shouldn't really use the word "impossible" because it is certainly incorrect and overgeneralizing. I will reword it to highly, highly and unlikely, and if it does happen, chances are there are spots of bad play in the 8 buyin "downswing", whether or not you can recognize this, or how to recognize this is a completely different discussion.

Fwiw, my live sample is 1200hrs total. I am running at 66$/hr over my last 600 hrs, 50$/hr over 800+ hours of 2/5, 260hrs of 1/2 and <100hrs of 5/10.
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Old 12-17-2012, 05:22 PM   #3174
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actually what you said is untrue since tilt/poor play etc... is all included in your win rate
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Old 12-17-2012, 05:22 PM   #3175
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That's a fine response RobFarha, I agree with it as well.
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