Its certainly true that being in the abyss aka going through a mindnumbing huge downswing over a long timespan can have a scary negative impact on a persons psyche. You dont know unless youve been there is all i can say.

That being said, such has nothing to do with the question regarding will the livegames be beatable for solid amounts in the years to come. Dealing with downswings is one topic, possible winrates another one. You are mixing apple and oranges together wich is kind of a derail really.

while I’m pretty much the opposite of Mr ‘quit your job to play poker’, it’s also worth noting that long term downswings/bad luck/negative variance also happen all the time in other careers.

As does...being around energy sucking people of one kind or another. Some of the nastiest, meanest people I’ve met have been through work

For sure. Being around energy sucking people multiple hours everyday or at a high frequenzy also does scary negative things to your mental health over time. Often without you even realizing it.

The type of person that wanted to play poker for a living in the first place probably doesn't want to do work with the employee/employer relationship anyway. Having that kind of money opens up a lot of different options that would be well suited to people who prefer self-employment.

While I agree that 2/5 is real ez and can be pounded for a very comfy wage there is a big problem that may or may not happen that I think you may want to consider.

Inflation and rake. What if casinos go to be more like australia and drill you with obscene rake?

What if we experience inflation like we did in the 70's?

suddenly the whole paradigm changes.

I personally have witnessed the blackjack landscape change dramatically from a profitable perspective. I and many others have also seen a very profitable online career vaporize in a single day.

So although live players will most likely always generally suck there are other factors to consider for a live low steaks grinding career.

jus sayin

While all of these seem possible, they seem extremely improbable to the point that they're MUBS-y. There are ways to adapt though such as moving up in stakes and/or changing mediums of playing and/or playing a different game if the **** really hit the fan.

Of course, live games will remain beatable, as long as you stay on top of your game (and study). However, to think that the landscape doesn't change over time is self-deluding. It does.

Back in the '90s the 4/8 limit game, with a $1.50 per half/hour collection was quite beatable. Then, the poker boom hit and people started reading books and the game got tougher. Then NL hit and the 4/8 rake became $5 a hand and the money was sucked out of the game and it was unbeatable. Then better players moved to NL and the gamblers dominated the 4/8 again and, lo and behold, it became beatable again (though not for much).

Something else about being in cardrooms constantly is that there are some rather scummy people you have no choice but to interact with. Yes, some of the best people I know are poker players, but then again there are also the degenerates. People who come in sick, never seem to take a bath and are about as trustworthy as a viper. I once "loaned" a guy $20 so that he would avoid me and go away. It was worth it.

It's a complicated life and once there is a big gap in your resume, it's hard to get out.

Guy last night was spraying dandruff all over the table. They had to disinfect three different seats. $/hr doesn’t matter. That’s a rake that can’t be overcome.

Rather than polluting the thread with posts like yours, you can report the post in question yourself. Click on the triangle with the exclamation mark in the lower left of the post, and fill out the reason why you are reporting it.

In 2019, I quit my $135,000 a year / full benefits job to be a poker player full time. I had $80,000 saved up and I was burnt out on full time employment.

By the time COVID hit a year later, I had played only 350 hours, and earned $38,000.. which was almost exactly what my expenses were for the previous year.

I don't think I succeeded as a pro, I didn't put the hours in. But that year off was the best thing I could have done for myself, and post COVID, I started a new job at more then double my previous salary.

Have a backup plan and take your shot if you want to - life is too short to ask yourself 'what if'

That's very true. I don't see anything wrong with quitting your job to play poker if you know poker will be able to provide you with what you're looking for. Your last paragraph resonates well.

I quit my job as well, but I'm projected to make ~triple what I was making at the job, so it's a bit of a moot point.

So Graton 1/3 7 handed plexi-game was beatable due to 2 action players among the 7. Dumping $300 into the game can cover the 25% snatch rake. It was a far cry from when it first opened and the 1/3 looked like a 2/5. Also the 2 hr wait to be seated would throw off anyone's hourly EV.

I think this breaks down very neatly by age. Those in their 20s don't see giving up the entry level job as a big sacrifice and the MAWGs don't see full time poker as much of a boon.

Exactly, and apparently in the case is Ranma MAWW do see it as much of a boon

I’m back down to about 5 BI live. Ironically, I’m crushing online and trying to figure out if I should withdraw some to supplement my real life roll.

no money in live poker. Everyone’s solid

I mean, let's say you make $60K and clear $50K versus making $500K and clearing, I don't know, $325K? Looks like every year it lasts equals 6.5 years of income in the 9-to-5. If you live off the same amount you would have for a couple years and invest the rest wisely in a diversified home and a house, you're coming out waaaaaay ahead.

This is wise. I think it's probably smart for most young people to compare the lifestyle of a regular job in a field they're good at and hopefully enjoy/don't hate with the poker life. They're VERY different, and neither is for everybody. But the opportunity to really dive into it all the way in one's early-to-mid 20's is incomparable. I didn't get into poker as a full-time job until I was approaching 30, and I often think about how much fun it would have been to be like a 25 year old pro just doing six month stints here and there in cool places. Some you can make work earlier on in your career, but not later, because you can't get a regular 2/5+ game.

This is a legit concern. Rake will never go down and will keep going up. I would assume every 3-7 years, most casinos will add a dollar to the rake, keeping pace with (or surpassing) inflation. On the other hand, the games mostly stay the same size. It's not like 2/5 is going to turn into 3/6 NL or 4/8 NL to keep up with inflation. The question is do people move up in stakes to offset it? I don't think they do at the same pace.

In this case, either people start making more money in their regular jobs to keep up with the inflation and thus play higher stakes or people with regular jobs are just as screwed as poker pros. It's a legit concern, but I don't know if it specifically applies to poker any more than any other line of work.

I'm not trying to **** all over lower stakes or lower stakes players in general, because there are tons of good people playing the smaller games. That said, the percentage of people who would fit the description you laid out has gone down every time I've jumped up in stakes. So for people trying to climb the ranks to play full-time 5/T+, I think this is a lot less of a concern.

Depends how long the gap is, what field you're trying to get into, and whether you can put anything else on your resume. I would imagine, "Right after school I freelanced at XYZ for a couple years and traveled while I had the opportunity," is going to be totally fine... and if that keeps you from getting a particular job, the boss doing the hiring was probably going to be a nightmare to work for. The longer the gap, the bigger the issue may become, obviously.

I think the bigger issue to consider in that regard is not the resume gap blocking you from getting hired, it's the experience deficit forcing you to start out at a lower rung making entry-level money.

But for a lot of us the biggest difficulty in getting out is that we would never want to work for someone else after having as much freedom as we have playing poker. I'd have to get a significant raise to even consider taking a 9-to-5 job outside of like two or three very specific ones (that would fulfill a passion, like poker does) that would never fall into my lap.

Cuse - think about this. The smallest game casinos spread is still 1/2 a decade after Black Friday. In fact vegas is spreading significantly less 5/T+ than in 2011. a 2011 dollar is worth about 1.19 today. Inflatio was pretty mellow during that decade yet that is a pretty decent decline in the purchasing power.

Right now we are currently rocking an inflation rate of 4.16% and I aint no xpirt but with the amt of dallah bills the govt is printing it sure doesnt look like inflation is going to flatten out anytime soon. I personally dont care - I am rockin a really nice income stream outside of pokerz and will never play full time again. But for dudes trying to play full time it should b a concern as there is no COLA for gambool. Meaning rec gamblers are NOT jumping stakes along with the inflation rate - they stick to what they know generally speaking and if you are stuck at 2/5 you need to crank out moar hours every year just to stay even.

Right, I was agreeing with you about that kind of inflation (regular inflation of 1-4% per year on average).

Where I disagreed was about the risk of more rapid inflation like in the 1970's, when it averaged 7%. In six years that would be 50%. While I agree we do have an uncomfortably high risk of a similar environment, I don't agree that poker is any more at risk than most other lines of work. If the cost of everything goes up that rapidly, either:

A) Average income goes up similarly, and thus people's available leisure money goes up in dollars to maintain similar spending power, thus people have 50% more money to gamble, and poker is fine - either because people play higher or because they dump more buyins before leaving.

or

B) Everyone is equally screwed, and poker is just as screwed as any other career.

My current opinion on playing 2/5 long term is that most people will fall into one of a few groups:

A) Crushers who can beat the game for enough money to make a comfortable long-term living, without fear of inflation/rake changes hurting them enough to be too detrimental. Almost all of these players could probably beat 5/T+, but it may not be available where they live or they may prefer not to play higher for various reasons. They are probably fine to go for it long term.

B) Winning players who can beat the game for enough money to make what feels like a comfortable living, but are at high risk of inflation/rake, and/or downswings wreaking havoc on their bankroll/happiness/mental outlook on the game. These people should generally avoid poker as a long-term career path, or should look to get out once they realize this is the group they're in. But ego gets involved. The exception to B would be...

C) People who would otherwise fall into Group B but their other career options are so diminished due to either location or education that poker is still far superior to the alternatives.

D) People in any of the above groups who are miserable working a normal job with a boss, etc, etc. While it may not make the most sense from a purely financial standpoint, the freedom to answer to no one may be worth it to them.

After getting all in in a 550BB pot with a set and being ahead I now have 166bb in my live roll.



Luckily, I'm making something crazy like 45bb/100 at 50NL stars.

Mods, do you suppose it is possible to set the time delay for re-upping the "I AGREE/DECLINE" screen for something a little longer than five days? Again and again I click on the "Jump to first unread post" link on my control panel, get that nonsense, then get dumped on the first page of the thread, with the first-unread information trashed.

When a lot of college grads can't find work in their intended fields and have to settle for a job behind the counter at Enterprise Rent-A-Car, the poker life starts to look a bit more attractive.

(Of course, right now, with the "labor shortage" they may well do better by waiting on tables. The tips are pretty good, I understand.)

this please

I'll see what I can do. I don't know if the software has that level of granularity. It makes me re-click it whenever Ive restarted my computer or phone since the last time.

Lol, every time I click thru it I'm always pleasantly surprised to see an APD post before I realize it's the first page.

G*sniffs*,IthinkI'vegotsomethinginmyeyeG

Yeah I totally agree, and that's similar to how/why I got into poker and it's been such a blessing for me. But it's not for everyone, you need levels of discipline on and off the table in certain areas that not everyone has - especially involving vices, the hours you keep, and the company you keep. Working a regular job for a boss is not my cup of tea, but plenty of people will do better with the daily organization of a set schedule than with the chaotic schedule that is professional poker.

But, I do believe our economy is fundamentally broken right now (and has been for a little while) and is unlikely to be fixed anytime soon, which means poker may make sense for a lot of people.