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Old 05-16-2021, 05:50 AM   #25326
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I considered quitting my day job as a lawyer when I had a string of five-figure months last last year. Glad I didn't; first few months of 2021 have been relatively mediocre.

Not many better examples of frying pans and fires than quitting as a lawyer to play 1/2 for a living
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Old 05-16-2021, 03:08 PM   #25327
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Not many better examples of frying pans and fires than quitting as a lawyer to play 1/2 for a living
Hahaha, would definitely not have been quitting to play 1/2. Would probably focus on 5/5/15 PLO5 tbh.
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Old 05-16-2021, 09:45 PM   #25328
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I hear the dont lose your day job advice. I just finished school and am going to take a year off that wasn't planned as I'm pulling in over 10k per month thos year at 2/5 and would make half that at my job.

Good news is that I can easily enter the work force in a year if things dont go well.
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Old 05-16-2021, 09:52 PM   #25329
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I hear the dont lose your day job advice. I just finished school and am going to take a year off that wasn't planned as I'm pulling in over 10k per month thos year at 2/5 and would make half that at my job.

Good news is that I can easily enter the work force in a year if things dont go well.
Even if you make $500,000 at 2/5 in the next year, you're better off with a profession outside of poker.
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Old 05-16-2021, 10:05 PM   #25330
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I'm in that income range right now and there's nothing else I'd rather be doing.

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Old 05-16-2021, 10:18 PM   #25331
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Even if you make $500,000 at 2/5 in the next year, you're better off with a profession outside of poker.
That's a top 1% income lol... You think quitting a $500K a year poker career makes sense? For someone who says they would be making about $60K?
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Old 05-16-2021, 11:38 PM   #25332
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Even if you make $500,000 at 2/5 in the next year, you're better off with a profession outside of poker.

can someone report this post for trolling?
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:14 AM   #25333
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That's a top 1% income lol... You think quitting a $500K a year poker career makes sense? For someone who says they would be making about $60K?
Because it won't last. Also, once you're in the life, it's really, really hard to get out.
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:23 AM   #25334
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Even if you make $500,000 at 2/5 in the next year, you're better off with a profession outside of poker.
Maybe I was unclear. I was saying pausing a year to focus on poker. I still finished my degree and can easily get a job in my field next year.

I have a years living expenses saved and and addititional 100BI poker bankroll. To pull in 100k+ this year playing poker seems like a great opportunity that I won't have again.

Totally on board with having a career/back up job option.
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:36 AM   #25335
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Because it won't last.
I don't agree with this at all. There's no reason to believe that poker is going to die. It's been alive and well for many years and has shown no signs of slowing down. Recs aren't going to magically start putting in tens of hours a week into poker study and start improving their game. Even in a universe where this did happen, the best players can just study harder and continue to crush the game. It's an irrational fear.

I've seen a lot of people on here say that you can't make a good living at 2/5 anymore and that it's getting harder and harder every year and all I can do is laugh.
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:56 AM   #25336
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I don't agree with this at all. There's no reason to believe that poker is going to die. It's been alive and well for many years and has shown no signs of slowing down. Recs aren't going to magically start putting in tens of hours a week into poker study and start improving their game. Even in a universe where this did happen, the best players can just study harder and continue to crush the game. It's an irrational fear.

I've seen a lot of people on here say that you can't make a good living at 2/5 anymore and that it's getting harder and harder every year and all I can do is laugh.
Not that poker won't last, but consistently beating the game for large amounts on a regular basis. Bad runs of cards and bad beats happen to the best of players. Bad runs can last months and it does weird things to a person's psyche.
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Old 05-17-2021, 05:32 AM   #25337
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I don't agree with this at all. There's no reason to believe that poker is going to die. It's been alive and well for many years and has shown no signs of slowing down. Recs aren't going to magically start putting in tens of hours a week into poker study and start improving their game. Even in a universe where this did happen, the best players can just study harder and continue to crush the game. It's an irrational fear.

I've seen a lot of people on here say that you can't make a good living at 2/5 anymore and that it's getting harder and harder every year and all I can do is laugh.
+1

Also, bolded kind of statements often comes from players that either went broke or coudnt beat the games at a significant clip anymore. Instead of admitting to themself that they wasnt as good as they may thought, its alot easier to construct this (not true) scenario where the games is so much worse than before, not beatable for solid amounts anymore,the rake eats everybody alive, 5K hours isnt a decent samplesize cuz variance is so sick that nobody can know their true winrate and yada yada yada.
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Old 05-17-2021, 05:36 AM   #25338
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Not that poker won't last, but consistently beating the game for large amounts on a regular basis. Bad runs of cards and bad beats happen to the best of players. Bad runs can last months and it does weird things to a person's psyche.
Its certainly true that being in the abyss aka going through a mindnumbing huge downswing over a long timespan can have a scary negative impact on a persons psyche. You dont know unless youve been there is all i can say.

That being said, such has nothing to do with the question regarding will the livegames be beatable for solid amounts in the years to come. Dealing with downswings is one topic, possible winrates another one. You are mixing apple and oranges together wich is kind of a derail really.
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Old 05-17-2021, 05:50 AM   #25339
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Its certainly true that being in the abyss aka going through a mindnumbing huge downswing over a long timespan can have a scary negative impact on a persons psyche. You dont know unless youve been there is all i can say.

.
while I’m pretty much the opposite of Mr ‘quit your job to play poker’, it’s also worth noting that long term downswings/bad luck/negative variance also happen all the time in other careers.

As does...being around energy sucking people of one kind or another. Some of the nastiest, meanest people I’ve met have been through work
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Old 05-17-2021, 05:53 AM   #25340
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while I’m pretty much the opposite of Mr ‘quit your job to play poker’, it’s also worth noting that long term downswings/bad luck/negative variance also happen all the time in other careers.

As does...being around energy sucking people of one kind or another. Some of the nastiest, meanest people I’ve met have been through work
For sure. Being around energy sucking people multiple hours everyday or at a high frequenzy also does scary negative things to your mental health over time. Often without you even realizing it.
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Old 05-17-2021, 08:31 AM   #25341
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Because it won't last. Also, once you're in the life, it's really, really hard to get out.
The type of person that wanted to play poker for a living in the first place probably doesn't want to do work with the employee/employer relationship anyway. Having that kind of money opens up a lot of different options that would be well suited to people who prefer self-employment.
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:32 PM   #25342
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sixsevenoff View Post
I don't agree with this at all. There's no reason to believe that poker is going to die. It's been alive and well for many years and has shown no signs of slowing down. Recs aren't going to magically start putting in tens of hours a week into poker study and start improving their game. Even in a universe where this did happen, the best players can just study harder and continue to crush the game. It's an irrational fear.

I've seen a lot of people on here say that you can't make a good living at 2/5 anymore and that it's getting harder and harder every year and all I can do is laugh.

While I agree that 2/5 is real ez and can be pounded for a very comfy wage there is a big problem that may or may not happen that I think you may want to consider.

Inflation and rake. What if casinos go to be more like australia and drill you with obscene rake?

What if we experience inflation like we did in the 70's?

suddenly the whole paradigm changes.

I personally have witnessed the blackjack landscape change dramatically from a profitable perspective. I and many others have also seen a very profitable online career vaporize in a single day.

So although live players will most likely always generally suck there are other factors to consider for a live low steaks grinding career.

jus sayin
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Old 05-17-2021, 12:42 PM   #25343
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While I agree that 2/5 is real ez and can be pounded for a very comfy wage there is a big problem that may or may not happen that I think you may want to consider.

Inflation and rake. What if casinos go to be more like australia and drill you with obscene rake?

What if we experience inflation like we did in the 70's?

suddenly the whole paradigm changes.

I personally have witnessed the blackjack landscape change dramatically from a profitable perspective. I and many others have also seen a very profitable online career vaporize in a single day.

So although live players will most likely always generally suck there are other factors to consider for a live low steaks grinding career.

jus sayin
While all of these seem possible, they seem extremely improbable to the point that they're MUBS-y. There are ways to adapt though such as moving up in stakes and/or changing mediums of playing and/or playing a different game if the **** really hit the fan.
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Old 05-17-2021, 01:23 PM   #25344
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Its certainly true that being in the abyss aka going through a mindnumbing huge downswing over a long timespan can have a scary negative impact on a persons psyche. You dont know unless youve been there is all i can say.

That being said, such has nothing to do with the question regarding will the livegames be beatable for solid amounts in the years to come. Dealing with downswings is one topic, possible winrates another one. You are mixing apple and oranges together wich is kind of a derail really.
Of course, live games will remain beatable, as long as you stay on top of your game (and study). However, to think that the landscape doesn't change over time is self-deluding. It does.

Back in the '90s the 4/8 limit game, with a $1.50 per half/hour collection was quite beatable. Then, the poker boom hit and people started reading books and the game got tougher. Then NL hit and the 4/8 rake became $5 a hand and the money was sucked out of the game and it was unbeatable. Then better players moved to NL and the gamblers dominated the 4/8 again and, lo and behold, it became beatable again (though not for much).

Something else about being in cardrooms constantly is that there are some rather scummy people you have no choice but to interact with. Yes, some of the best people I know are poker players, but then again there are also the degenerates. People who come in sick, never seem to take a bath and are about as trustworthy as a viper. I once "loaned" a guy $20 so that he would avoid me and go away. It was worth it.

It's a complicated life and once there is a big gap in your resume, it's hard to get out.
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Old 05-17-2021, 01:37 PM   #25345
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Guy last night was spraying dandruff all over the table. They had to disinfect three different seats. $/hr doesn’t matter. That’s a rake that can’t be overcome.
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Old 05-17-2021, 02:17 PM   #25346
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can someone report this post for trolling?
Rather than polluting the thread with posts like yours, you can report the post in question yourself. Click on the triangle with the exclamation mark in the lower left of the post, and fill out the reason why you are reporting it.
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:01 PM   #25347
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In 2019, I quit my $135,000 a year / full benefits job to be a poker player full time. I had $80,000 saved up and I was burnt out on full time employment.

By the time COVID hit a year later, I had played only 350 hours, and earned $38,000.. which was almost exactly what my expenses were for the previous year.

I don't think I succeeded as a pro, I didn't put the hours in. But that year off was the best thing I could have done for myself, and post COVID, I started a new job at more then double my previous salary.

Have a backup plan and take your shot if you want to - life is too short to ask yourself 'what if'
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:16 PM   #25348
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That's very true. I don't see anything wrong with quitting your job to play poker if you know poker will be able to provide you with what you're looking for. Your last paragraph resonates well.

I quit my job as well, but I'm projected to make ~triple what I was making at the job, so it's a bit of a moot point.
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Old 05-25-2021, 05:54 PM   #25349
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Well, I thought I was just on an upswing. Ya know, just hitting random luck in cards and people that stack off with one pair. But that's never lasted more than a week and change. It's been happening for about 3 months now. So, I started looking for other explanations.

Also, I'm finding lots of the "bet small (for the pot) with weak hands" players, that will fold to a $100 pot size raise on the turn.

I will note that yesterday, a 1/3, 2/5 pro I recall was in the game. So, I think the word is spreading.

TLDR; The 1/3's are defiantly softer than normal right now.
So Graton 1/3 7 handed plexi-game was beatable due to 2 action players among the 7. Dumping $300 into the game can cover the 25% snatch rake. It was a far cry from when it first opened and the 1/3 looked like a 2/5. Also the 2 hr wait to be seated would throw off anyone's hourly EV.

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That's very true. I don't see anything wrong with quitting your job to play poker if you know poker will be able to provide you with what you're looking for. Your last paragraph resonates well.

I quit my job as well, but I'm projected to make ~triple what I was making at the job, so it's a bit of a moot point.
I think this breaks down very neatly by age. Those in their 20s don't see giving up the entry level job as a big sacrifice and the MAWGs don't see full time poker as much of a boon.
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Old 05-25-2021, 06:23 PM   #25350
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So Graton 1/3 7 handed plexi-game was beatable due to 2 action players among the 7. Dumping $300 into the game can cover the 25% snatch rake. It was a far cry from when it first opened and the 1/3 looked like a 2/5. Also the 2 hr wait to be seated would throw off anyone's hourly EV.



I think this breaks down very neatly by age. Those in their 20s don't see giving up the entry level job as a big sacrifice and the MAWGs don't see full time poker as much of a boon.
Exactly, and apparently in the case is Ranma MAWW do see it as much of a boon
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