Maybe that just changes as you move up into the nosebleeds then. Obviously he was talking about the highest stakes, so it may not apply to us.

That's insane. I always thought 2/3 winning sessions was standard for LLSNL but I guess once you move up to a point where 5 bb/hr is "crushing", it's a lot different.

But I guess in our cases, stop losses mean that even though we lose more often than the average reg, we win way more than we lose.

As an aside, I don't think stop losses are necessarily good if one is planning to move up stakes. Maybe while taking a shot sure but certainly not right before doing that at the lower stake. I feel like in that case, one must train to play through the pain.

Why would anyone think Doug Polk is an expert in anything having to due with low to mid stakes games? When's the last time he put in 1000 hours of 1/2 or 2/5? Or even 5/10?

2/3 winning sessions is very obtainable for top players at 5/10 and below. Not that session win % is anything to be really gauging a whole lot on. You should never be trying to raise or lower that number....but at the end of the year its interesting to look at.

Well played Spy!

Thanks Samo!

Nice work Spy! What kind of volume did this require?

This reminds me of my 2018 volume. Some years are just like that I guess. 6+ BB/hr is solid work though, congrats and thanks for sharing.

Thanks for sharing. Your yearly results are consistently impressive IMO. I'm sure we've played together before. Good to know who to look out for. That PLO is just insane. I really need to learn that game. My hours are so limited though, it just makes me want to stay in the comfort zone and just move up until I can't win.

This bottom line was my poker fantasy when I started reading to improve my game. The obvious catch is that there's no way I can put in 2k+ hours a year. So the $50k on the side remains a fantasy. Nice work though and thanks for sharing. I plan on logging a few more sessions before posting my results.

Thanks!

About 700hrs online.
I usually have a tourney running in the background when I play cash. Also helps I can play on my phone so am not limited to sitting down at my laptop.

Around 100hrs live.

Thanks. Is that a typo? Wow, 13k in less than 100 hrs live is crazy to me.

Yea, I had gotten into a pattern of playing 2-3 6ish hour sessions of home game PLO a week for over a year. Super convenient location and times. When that game folded the switch back to Going to a casino was just VERY inconvenient. But NLHE is so stupidly easy after PLO.

A lot of it is from 2/5/10 and 5/10/20 so not particularly impressive.

Nice volume Dumbo.

Thanks! $$/hr. could be better and I'll be working on my game so I can cut back on the number of hours next year.

Low volume this year, 1/3 stakes:

Hours Profit
202.83 $9,082

Total Stats

Total Hours
1619.54
Total Profit
$81,152.00
Hourly
$50.11

Yeah there aren't many women playing 2/5 and the PLO game and beating both at that casino, so I assume it's pretty obvious who I am. Feel free to say hi if you want. The PLO game is far and away the best game in the casino, nothing comes close to the size of the game nor the number of donators willing to drop several thousand every time they play.

Prior to this year I had played 42 hours of PLO in 8 years; it's definitely a game I'm terrible at, but luckily almost everyone else is also terrible at it.

Suppose a player has a win rate of 10 bb/hour and an hourly standard deviation of 80 bb.

Suppose further that this player follows a rigid schedule and plays 6-hour sessions when they play, without regard to wins, losses, locking up wins, or stop-losses.

Then the probability distribution of this player's sessions will be close to Gaussian (central limit theorem, lots of hands played) with a mean of 60 bb and a standard deviation of 296 bb.

From this we can compute (or look up) the likelihood of a winning session, through the use of the cumulative distribution function.

It turns out that our hypothetical player is going to be winning 58% of the sessions they play and losing 42%, over the long run.

This is going to vary with session length, and it gets trickier when you play sessions of varying lengths. And you can fudge the data by doing things like locking up wins or playing long sessions when you are behind until you get back to even. For a given win rate you can manufacture wins, thus having a record of sessions of lots of short wins and fewer but rather larger losses.

So having a 75% winning session rate is attainable -- if you manufacture your wins.

I doubt anyone is getting from 58 to 75% by manufacturing wins unless they're literally creating multiple sessions per winning session or something dumb.

Picked up the game again this October after nearly a decade off. Would have liked more hours but the casino is over an hours drive away and I have a day job. This is almost all 1/2, thinking of stepping up to 2/5 in 2020.

My session win % is 67.5% over 300 sessions and 1600 hours, with very little manufacturing as I stick to a pretty rigid schedule in my sessions.

Mine may be on the low side because I often play lots of shorter "sessions" throughout the day. Plus it's hard to win consistently at PLO. It used to be closer to 65% but has taken a nosedive since I started playing PLO close to full time the past few months.

Mine is 68% over about 4 times more hours than that. Point being that high 60%s is not a crazy unbelievable number. Good players can have lower win % numbers also. Its very style dependent just like StnDev is.

Individual years its
72%
67%
69%
66%

Did you just say this was 1/3? Solid hourly over a pretty good sample if it is.